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  • Gary Porpora

WEEK THIRTEEN - PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

NFL 2023 - WEEK THIRTEEN

NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK TWELVE = 10 - 5 -1

WEEKLY OVERALL = 90– 85 - 5 .514

0/U = 5 - 4 O/U CUMULATIVE 46 - 40 .535

SPECIALS 2 - 1 - 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 30 - 16 - 2 .652

GAME OF THE WEEK 7 – 3 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 3 - 1

UPSET SPECIAL 3 – 8 O/U OF THE WEEK 9 - 2

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 69 - 51 - 1 .576


Heading into Week 13, we find ourselves only 9 picks behind Jared Dubin over at cbs.com...We're neck and neck with three of his colleagues and well ahead of four others.


Our overall Weekly Picks are approaching the minimal breaking point of .525, and we're making money on our remaining three important tallies.


Let's keep it going...

GAME OF THE WEEK


49ers (-3) @ Eagles 49ers -142; Eagles +120 47 GW [O]


This matchup will probably happen again during conference championship week--and a lot of money is going San Fran’s way in this one. Pundits are all over the Miners “circling this date on the calendar.”


NFL football is an emotional game, but when one team gets their ass kicked in the penultimate playoff game because their ‘quarterback was hurt” complaining sounds a lot like crying.


In addition, Philadelphia is the defending NFC Champion and played a good Super Bowl.


When a team knows how to win big games in all circumstances, that gives them a signifiant advantage in a rematch.


Finally, if the Prospectors are itching for revenge, you better believe the Eagles are just as pissed that their victories and success in 2022 haven’t been part of this week’s conversation.


We’ll take the home dog defending NFC Champs to win outright, and call the Over...


Eagles 31

Niners 27


LOCK OF THE WEEK


Bengals @ Jaguars (-8.5) Bengals +310; Jaguars -395 39 LW [U]


I trust the surging Jag Wires at home more than I trust the “You never know” Chargers making the cross-country trek to the Razor.


And those are the only two games deserving of Lock consideration in Week 13.


Trevor Lawrence is still finding himself with Doug Petersen; the Bengals seem badly lost without Joe Burrow and an underperforming defense.


Jaguars 26

Bengals 13


UPSET SPECIAL


Broncos @ Texans (-3.5) Broncos +150; Texans -180 46 US [U]


This Spread seems out of whack to me. The Books are giving 3 and the hook to one of the hottest teams in football?


The Mile High Toothless Nags have been close in every game except the 50 point loss to the Fish in Week Three. The very young Shitkickers are superbly coached by Demeco Ryan--he gets my vote for coach of the year--but Sean Payton is getting the most out of Russell Wilson and the Denver defense is playing much better fundamental football.


The Broncs have five quality wins against teams still in the playoff hunt; their last five wins were earned against legitimate playof hopefuls.


The Houstons have quality wins against the Steelers and Jags---that’s it. They’ve won three of their last four besting Arizona, Cincy, and Tampa. They've been blessed with one of the weakest schedules in the league.


Let’s not fade the Texans too much; we respect their body of work under Coach Ryan. This team is playing their hearts out for their young leader and none of their last three losses were decided by more than three points.


We still are inclined to give the edge in coaching to Sean Payton and Russel Wilson’s experience should prove to be the difference, in a very tightly played contest


Denver wins outright, Under the Number...


Broncos 24

Texans 21


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Chiefs (-6) @ Packers Chiefs -258; Packers +210 42.5 O/U


This is a confident call because the Chiefs defense is more of a force than their vaunted offense, and Green Bay at 5-6 is a bit undervalued on both sides of the ball.


I’m waiting for the Chiefs to have that breakout game on offense and for Green Bay’s Jordan Love to solidify his claim to the title of next Packer great at QB.


I’m looking for a lot of scoring in this one with the Chiefs pulling away in the fourth quarter


Chiefs 29

Packers 22


THE STEELERS


Cardinals @ Steelers (-5.5) Cardinals +185; Steelers -225 39.5 [O]


Kyler Murray and his Red Birds wing into Acrisure Stadsium to play a team that might be cementing its identity at the perfect time.


Last week, despite a putrid points scored total of sixteen, and the organizational upheaval caused by firing Matt Canada, Kenny Pickett and the offense racked up 400+ yards for the first time since Canada was hired , three years ago.


I could hear the Burgh’s collective sigh of relief in my Southern California home.


I believe there are four things happening that could make the Steelers a tough out moving forward:

  • Pickett had a good day throwing downfield...You could almost see how much more relaxed he was...

  • Pittsburgh’s secondary is 3rd in opposing passer completion percentage and 8th in Opp. Int. Percentage...

  • ...and they may have found their first true shutdown corner since Rod Woodson was the Big Dog in the Pittsburgh secondary. Joey Porter Jr. Is looking like the first round gem he was drafted to be..

  • Maybe most importantly, the Steelers are running the football for big yardage...

All of the above has changed the way teams play Pittsburgh. Now the Steelers possess the ball much longer per game, longer drives--and are fifth best in RZ scoring.


In Arizona, Jonathan Gannon is having growing pains as a rookie coach; his quarterback returned last week, but his defense has regressed as the year has unfolded.


This is a statement game for Mike Tomlin and his Steelers, let’s hope the NFL’s most loquacious coach has the vocabulary to make that statement short and sweet: “The Steelers are back.”


We think Pittsburgh rolls big against a Cardinals squad searching for a life preserver, and although Arizona has the personnel to pull off the upset that would send the Tomlin haters into a feeding frenzy, the Steelers won’t let it happen...He. Said. Hopefully.


I’m calling the Over..


Steelers 29

Cardinals 18


As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...


Date Spread Moneyline Over Under

TNF 11/30

Cowboys (-9.5) @ Seahawks Cowboys -425; Seahawks +330 46.5

SUNDAY 12/0#

Dolphins (-9.5) @ Commanders Dolphins -425; Commanders +330 50.5

Cardinals @ Steelers (-5.5) Cardinals +185; Steelers -225 39.5 [O]

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-5) Panthers +185; Buccaneers -225 37.5

Falcons (-3) @ Jets Falcons -142; Jets +120 34

Lions (-4) @ Saints Lions -192; Saints +160 45.5

Chargers (-4) @ Patriots Chargers -245; Patriots +200 40.5

Colts @ Titans (-2.5) Colts -135 ; Titans +114 43

Broncos @ Texans (-3.5) Broncos +150; Texans -180 46 US [U]

Browns @ Rams (-4.5) Browns +170; Rams -205 39.5

49ers (-3) @ Eagles 49ers -142; Eagles +120 47 GW [O]

Chiefs (-6.5) @ Packers Chiefs -258; Packers +210 42.5 O/U

MNF

Bengals @ Jaguars (-8.5) Bengals +310; Jaguars -395 39 LW [U]

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REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 DIVISIONAL TALLY =  0 - 4    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 7  OVERALL  = 137 - 139 - 6 0/U  =  1 - 2  - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 77 - 61 - 1   .558 SPECIALS  0 - 4

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NFL 2023 – SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 PLAYOFF TALLY =  3 - 3  OVERALL  137 - 135 - 6  .504 0/U  =  5 - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 76 - 59   .563 SPECIALS

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