NFL WEEK EIGHTEEN ATS 2021
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK SEVENTEEN
Week Sixteen Tally: 9 – 6 – 1
2021 Overall Tally: 132 – 123 – 1 .518
Week Sixteen Totals 3 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 65 – 39 .625
Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 36 – 31 - 1 = .537
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 – 9 LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 9 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 12 – 5 O/U OF THE WEEK 9 – 8
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 101 – 70 – 1 .591 PARLAYS 2
BIGGEST TIP OF THE YEAR
Any website, pundit, punjab, expert, guru, mind-melder, gambler, bookie, hit man, or priest that insists they have a secret to successfully betting the final week of an NFL season is lying to you.
There are too many factors that don’t merit consideration in virtually any other week:
· Whose sitting starters—who’s not…?
· What head coaches are contemplating interviews as coordinators…?
· How hard will players play for a coach they know is gone—or want to be gone…?
· Will teams who have locked up a playoff berth and can only improve their seeding play with the same focus and intensity…?
There are several more questions in that barrel of fun, but you get the idea; at this juncture of the 2021 NFL campaign, nobody knows anything…
For example, yesterday I picked Denver to Cover, counting on the Broncos to play all out for the well-respected Vince Fangio, who maybe looking to resume his career as a coordinator once the game ends. Also the Chiefs had to be reeling from last week’s drubbing in Cincy and no coach or team likes to go into the playoffs losing two in a row.
The Broncs almost pulled off the upset if not for a late scoop and score—which kicked my Under call in the nuts.
I also took the Cowboys and the Over—but my first pick was the Eagles and the Under…Did a little reading, learned Dallas was playing starters, and Philly was starting a lot of subs; changed my analysis, and lo and behold, The Gairzo is a genius…
Let’s see if all that reading will help with the14 remaining picks:
GAME OF THE WEEK (8 – 9)
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2.5, 49.5) @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS GW [O]
This is the only legitimate GOW on the board and is, essentially, the first playoff game of the year. Winner moves on, loser golfs.
I am loathe to fade a home dog in a divisional contest when this much is at stake, especially when the Road Favorite Bolts have a sophomore quarterback who is bi-polar: HOF caliber, one week; second stringer, the next week.
Justin Herbert is the epitome of inconsistent play, but the kid is resilient, he’s smart, and he shows improvement every week.
The Raiders Derek Carr simply never seems to be able to shine in the big game—but he will be getting stud tight end, Derek Waller back for this puppy.
Both teams have bad rush defenses, but neither team has a running game that scares anyone. LV and the Bolts are relatively healthy given it’s the end of a long season.
I’m going with the Bolts to beat the spread based on the Raiders tribulations this year with their coaching staff, their penchant for being undisciplined—last in Penalties PP and Penalty YPG—and their lack of splash plays on defense, especially in the secondary. The Raiders are next to last in take aways per game and last in OPP. Int. %. Los Angeles is 5th best at protecting their QB—and they have Joey Bosa, who should torture Carr all night.
Carr getting one of the leagues best TEs back could make a difference and keep the game close—but not close enough.
Chargers 27
Raiders 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK (7 – 9 - 1)
CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-4, 44) [O]
There is not a legitimate LOW in Week 18, but I’m going with the Vikings to play harder for
Coach Zimmer than the Bears will for Coach Nagy.
The Vikes have more talent and held Chicago to 9 points three weeks ago.
Other than that—I got nothin’…
Play the Over…
Vikings 26
Bears 21
UPSET SPECIAL (12 – 4)
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5, 39.5) @ ATLANTA FALCONS US [U]
Right now, the Saints are playing better football than the Falcons, even though Sean Payton can’t make up his mind who he wants at quarterback—or is waiting for someone who he believes can play quarterback…
The Falcons are at home, playing for pride. The Holy Men make the playoffs with a victory and a 49ers loss. Just the kind of game Sean Payton teams win on the road, and Atlanta gives away.
In other words a perfect Final Week Upset no one but me would predict…
Falcons 29
Saints 10
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK (9 - 7)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6, 39.5) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS O/U
Don’t see Darth Belichick sitting Mac Jones for this one and the Pats need to get the Dolphins in their rear view mirror as Miami have taken the last three of four head-to-head.
I think Belichick wants to show the playoff field he isn’t there just to have fun. His defense will facilitate that wish as they are the unit that will take New England back to the Promised Land—if they get there at all.
This should be a classic low scoring affair…Play the Under…
Patriots 19
Dolphins 11
The rest of my picks in bold italic…
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 45) @ Denver Broncos [U]
Dallas Cowboys (-5, 43.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles [O]
Sunday, Jan. 9
Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 45) @ Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-4, 44) LW [O]
Indianapolis Colts (-15.5, 44) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans (-10, 42.5) @ Houston Texans
Washington Football Team (-7, 37.5) @ New York Giants
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-4, 41.5)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-6, 38)
New England Patriots (-6, 39.5) @ Miami Dolphins O/U
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-16.5, 41.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8, 41.5)
New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 39.5) @ Atlanta Falcons US [U]
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-5, 48)
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 44.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 49.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders GW [O]