• Gary Porpora

WEEK 17 NFL PICKS ATS

WEEK SEVENTEEN ATS PICKS


2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU WEEK SIXTEEN

WEEK SIXTEEN ATS 8 – 8 2020 Overall ATS 120 – 117 - 3

Weekly Totals 4 – 4 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 46 – 56 – 4

Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 34 – 30 – 2

GAME OF THE WEEK 13 – 2 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 10

UPSET SPECIAL 6 – 10 O/U OF THE WEEK 9 – 8 – 1

PREMIUM PICKS 6 – 4 – 2 CUMULATIVE 80 – 80 – 7

DREADED WEEK 17


Been a tough year handicapping NFL games as the pandemic, scheduling adjustments along with the normal pressures inherent in pro level competition, and the difficulty of the endeavor conspired to thwart your resident ‘Capper’s best efforts...


But, If you think I’m on the south side of average, I’m still north of the eight experts at https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/picks/experts/ except for Dave Richards, who is having a great year.


***The discrepancies in the pushed bets and the total number of games are due to the different numbers at various sports books. ***


I will review my record on Monday and give you my final tally then.



WEEK SEVENTEEN PICKS


GAME OF THE WEEK


WASHINGTON NEVER LIARS (6-9) @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-9) +2 43.5 [U]


Never Liars!? You like that? I thought it would be silly and, of course it wouldn’t really fit a city built on lies…


How about the Wood Choppers!!?? You have the manly act of wood chopping, the less direct connection with George Washington’s cherry tree incident—AND the bonus of an exquisite double entendre which plays on Old George’s dental travails—The Choppers.


I love it.


As far as the game goes, it’s an insult to the fans to pretend a 6-10 team is worthy of post-season participation.


The famous saying, “money talks and bullshit walks” fits the NFL, and if the Washingtons lose to the Eagles and the Giants beat Dallas—the 6-10 Giants are in the playoffs.


Until they meet the Steelers in the Super Bowl, I’ll be rooting for the G-Men.


Alex Smith will be active but HC, Ron Rivera hasn’t said whether Smith will start or play. Riverboat Ron loves to mess with the injury report, but it won’t matter--Philly is missing Fletcher Cox , TE Dallas Goedert, RB Miles Sanders and a lot more talent.


Even if Philly pulls a trick play out of their ass, the Choppers—is that a brilliant nickname or what—defense will be the difference in a low scoring affair.


Washington 21 Eagles 17




LOCK OF THE WEEK


GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-3) @ CHICAGO BEARS (8-7) +4 44.5 [O]


Who wants it more? The veteran team who can use a week’s rest, or the struggling division rival with a Jekyll and Hyde quarterback?


Desire can only take a struggling team so far—and the Bears have been a strange team the last few weeks, as their defense has become pedestrian just as their QB dilemma seems to be resolving itself.


Statistically, the Bears are not a playoff team. They’ve given up 80 points in their last three games and they will take the field having only beaten one team currently in the post season—a Week Five nail biter against the Buccaneers at home.


The Packers yield less YPG than Chicago, their passing defense is the NFL’s sixth best; their sack pct. is much better—and they average 4.8 YPR.


Green Bay is also the stingiest turnover team in the league, Rogers just doesn’t throw picks.


Nothing except Chicago’s Red Zone defense stands out; the match-up stats I’m looking at tell me this one will be a Lock for Green Bay. Their goal, according to Rodgers, was to have home playoff games this year.


We’re playing the Over.


Packers 30 Bears 16




UPSET SPECIAL


PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-3) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -9 42 US [U]


Would you rather have someone hate your guts—or feel sorry for you?


I felt sorry for the Browns until last year when Myles Garrett tried to dent Pittsburgh QB, Mason Rudolph’s cranium with his own helmet—after violently ripping it from his head.


You can watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g2cnJRlkOFE


The replay, exactly at the :40 mark was as frightening a moment as I’ve seen in sports. If Garrett connects flush with that blow to Rudolph’s head, one of two things happen…


· Rudolph’s skull is crushed and his next exhale would have been his last…or…

· He becomes a zucchini…


Rudolph showed more class than I have this week, saying he’d be willing to talk to Garrett and make nice.


I would have told that two-bit thug to kiss my ass—especially after the lie about Rudolph slurring him. What a gutless bitch—couldn’t be a man and admit he went insane; he had to throw the race dice.


Getting slurred does not justify attempted murder, anyway, asshole.


So, any empathy I had for Cleveland—“What if the Rooney’s did that!?”—when Art Modell turned his back on loyal fans, morphed like Kafka’s cockroach into utter hate after Garret’s assault—almost up to the Ravens level—except Brown’s head coach, Kevin Stefanski’s face does not approach the punchability of Magpies honcho, John Harbaugh.


If the Browns can’t beat the Steelers tomorrow, when Pittsburgh will sit around 17 starters, then they never will.


I think Mike Tomlin knows he can’t let Cleveland walk all over his team.


The Steelers will make a game of it and Cover the Chalk.


Hopefully, Myles Garret meets Karma in the process.


Play the Over.


Browns 27 Steelers 20




OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-9) @ DETROIT LIONS (5-10-) +6.5 54


Two NFC North teams square off for nothing more than pride.


The Lions sacked Matt Patricia mid-season, and you have to wonder if Mike Zimmer has done all he can in the Twin Cities. His tenure has just been so frustrating for Vikings fans.


My wager is based on two tired, weary teams playing out the string—and their incompetence will keep the score Under the Number.


No, I’m not saying these two clubs will mail this one in, but the pandemic meant many more restrictions, an upheaval of normal routines, time away from family, and less practice—and it is not over yet.


Dalvin Cook will do his damage, Matt Stafford’s broken thumb will be an issue and the Vikings will win it going away.



Vikings 31 Lions 22


My picks are below in bold italic…


Week 17

Sunday Jan. 3

1:00 Window

Miami @ Buffalo -3 43.3

Baltimore @ Cincinnati +13 44.5

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland -9 42 US [O]

Minnesota @ Detroit +6.5 54 O/U [U]

New York Jets @ New England -3 39.5

Dallas @ New York Giants 1.5 45

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -7 50.5

4:25 Window

New Orleans @ Carolina +6.5 47.5

Green Bay @ Chicago +4 45 LW [O]

Las Vegas @ Denver +2.5 51

Tennessee @ Houston + 7.5 56.5

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis -14 49.5

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City +3.5 44

Arizona @ Los Angeles Rams +3 40.5

Seattle @ San Francisco +6 46

Washington @ Philadelphia +2 43.5 (SNF) GW [U]

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