• Gary Porpora

WEEK 16--ANYBODY'S GUESS

Updated: Dec 22, 2019

NFL WEEK SIXTEEN


AFTER WEEK FIFTEEN

Week Fifteen Picks: 6 – 9 – 1 2019 Overall Tally: 117 – 102 – 5 .534

Weekly Totals Picks: 1 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 49 – 43 – 1 .533

Weekly Specials 1– 3 Cumulative Specials: 28 – 31 – 1 .475

GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 10 LOCK OF THE WEEK 9 – 6

UPSET SPECIAL 7 – 7 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 – 8


I was so focused on my writing I missed the nightly warning of my Mac’s impending shutdown.


I lost over a page of commentary.


It was brilliant—trust me.


Here are my picks for Saturday:


NFL Lines For Week 16 - 12/21 2019

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

12/21 8:15 ET Houston -3 [O] At Tampa Bay 45


Since 2014 Tampa Bay is a putrid 25th as a Home Dog; Houston comes in at #1 as a Road Favorite. Which, of course means your humble prognosticator will swim with the Sharks, the public, and the punditocracy and take the Shit Kickers lay the three points with the Under.


Right?


‘Fraid not…


Bruce Arians has yet to fail as a quarterback whisperer and Jamius Winston has responded with a four game winning streak—What a neat coincidence; just in time for a fat new contract offer after this season.


DeShaun Watson has had an MVP caliber season backed by a good running game, but as usual, Bill O’Brien’s teams lack focus, and this is just the type of game where that demon will torture them again.


That lack of focus didn’t cost them last Sunday against division rival, Tennessee—they host the Titans next week—but no legitimate playoff defense lets the 2019 Broncos shove a 38 double bacon Whopper down their throat, at home, in the thick of playoff race.


With 20 MPH winds forecast to stiffen the Matey’s sails, the much tougher Bucs defense will be the difference in this one, and Winston might put up another 475 effort on a lousy Texans defense.


We will go with the Over.


Buccaneers 27 Texans 24



AFTERNOON GAME

NFL Lines For Week 16 - 12/21 2019

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

12/21 4:30 ET At New England -6.5 [U] Buffalo 45


Pick any year since Darth Belichick started collecting opponent’s signals as head coach in New England.


The Patriots are the best bet in the NFL.


Buffalo? Not as good…


I hope the Bills destroy the lousy Cheaters, but you know damn well this is just the kind of game NE uses as a springboard into another playoff run.


The Gairzo’s gut says the Bills will be the ones making the statement.


Tom Brady has played injured all year. He looks uncommonly sluggish and we have to wonder how much longer he can utilize Belichick’s ill-gotten information to dominate opponents.


Sean McDermott has his team winning games against weaker opponents and he knows this is the mountain he must conquer if his Bills hope to expunge the painful history of four Super Bowl losses in a row.


Here are some trends:

  • · Buffalo is 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 road games.

  • · New England is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last 8 divisional home games.

  • · Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs divisional opponents.

Ultimately, I just can’t see the Patriots losing a division game this late in the season—but I can see the Bill Covering the Spread—Under the Number.


Patriots 21 Bills 16



LATE GAME

NFL Lines For Week 16 - 12/21 2019

Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total

12/21 8:15 ET At San Francisco -6.5 [O] LA Rams 45


The Rams folded like a cheap accordion last week against the Cowboys and they even managed to look worse than the 44-21 final score indicates.


Lucky for the Big Horns, Atlanta woke from the dead and upset the stunned 49ers in Santa Clara, putting doubts in the minds of players and fans who thought San Fran would roll through the playoffs.


My bet is the Prospectors will still strike gold against any NFC rival except maybe Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson because only the Ravens rank slightly higher in nearly every important stat split making both clubs the two most balanced teams in the league.


Jared Goff’s thumb contusion will hurt LA’s chances in this one, although Todd Gurley has looked like his young-self of late. Of course, as long as Aaron Donald is on defense, the Rams have a shot to win any game.


I think the 49ers run right at Donald and dominate the Rams.


We’ll go with the Over.


49ers 27 Rams 21


More Tomorrow....

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