- Gary Porpora
TAKE THE TNF HOME TEAM!!!
NFL 2019 WEEK TWO
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Early season divisional games between two Week One losers…Always a tough, nuanced call…
One profitable angle this early in the season involves looking at a template you devise that prioritizes stats, trends, matchups, and odds because you don’t always want to go with the public and/or consensus bet.
There are times to be a contrarian; this is not the time.
My clear ATS call on this puppy has the Black Cats with the obvious home field advantage edge along with the better QB, coach and offensive line, almost since Ron Rivera took over-probably has to do with talent at QB
Stat-wise, since 2014 the Bucs respond to a loss at a paltry 30% clip, Carolina isn’t much better at 40%. The Panthers are fourth best in the NFL as a home favorite, while TB covers as a road dog barely 29% of the time.
I watched both these teams play last Sunday and their games were similar to every teams’ performance—sloppy, uncoordinated offense, shoddy tackling.
How about in division games? Again, Carolina is barely below .500, but the Mateys remain in the low 30 percentile in their division and in the NFC.
When I add these nuggets the scale drops for the Panthers hard; it didn’t have far to drop:
· The Buccaneers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games at night.
· The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina’s last 5 home games vs its division.
· The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the Bucs’ last 6 games vs the Panthers.
Way too much statistical wind blowin’ against the Matey’s sails. Oh, and QB, Jameis Winston flat blows—three picks in Week One; career-wise 61 picks in 4+ years against only 89 TD passes.
Head coach Bruce Arians, if you listen carefully, knows Winston will never be worth the number one overall pick the Bucs paid for him—he keeps telling his signal caller to just be average—I’m willing to bet Arians never said that to Big Ben, Andrew Luck, or Carlson Palmer.
TNF, you take the home team and expect to win 60% of your wagers. We’ll make that bet and take the Under
Panthers 23 Bucs 16