• Gary Porpora

SUPER BOWL LV ATS...

WEEK 20 NFL SUPER BOWL


Last week Aaron Rodgers couldn’t beat Brady and the Bucs—making it impossible for the Gairzo to have anything approaching a .500 post-season record.


2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – THRU CCG WEEKEND

CCG WEEKEND ATS 1 – 1 2020 PLAYOFFS 5 – 7

2020 Overall ATS 134 – 130 – 4 .508

Weekly Totals 0 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 53 – 64 – 5

Weekly Specials 1 – 0 Cumulative Specials: 42– 33 – 2 .566

GAME OF THE WEEK 15 – 3 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 9 – 10

UPSET SPECIAL 8 – 10 O/U OF THE WEEK 10 – 10 – 1

PREMIUM PICKS 1 – 2 CUMULATIVE 95 – 97 – 7



GAME OF THE WEEK O/U OF THE WEEEK


KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (16-2) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (14-5) +3 54 [U]


Any advantage KC may have in this one—and I think they do—in context of the Parcells’ quote alluded to in last weeks column….The Bucs “home field advantage”…The field goal Vegas gives the Bucs…Tom Brady’s unbelievable success and experience…Patrick Mahomes mobility, or lack thereof…The unique gifts and skills of the coaches of both squads...


For this Super Bowl, any advantage either team, pundits or fans thinks either team has is cancelled out by an advantage of the opposing team.


Check out these comprehensive stat splits for the Super Bowl.


https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/matchup/chiefs-buccaneers-super-bowl-2020/stats


The Away vs. Home split reveals KC is a better away team than the Bucs are at home. Not by much though.


I have been picking ATS for 11 years, and I’ll be the first to admit I am no fulltime Vegas insider, not privy to the advanced calculus and algorithms—but the Bookies know their stuff.


Obviously they come out on the right side of the Spread, especially in close games.


I’ve never seen a game as close as the stats and trends say this one should be—of course

that means it’ll be a 38 – 5 blowout—but which team prevails?


The Bucs should be able to stop the Chiefs running game—but KC can run from every formation, has perfected the Jet Sweep and has a great screen game.


Neither team is turnover prone but both groups are capable of the splash plays…


Being able to sleep in their own beds, knowing their families are safe, and in the comfort of their own locker room, might be a bigger advantage than we think—or could it backfire with the Mateys coming out flat.


The short take: The Gairzo’s got nothing.


With Antonio Brown back, does the Chiefs perceived advantage at the skill positions shrink?


  • · Brown/Evans/Godwin = Hill/Watkins/Hardman

  • · Gronkowski = Kelce

  • · Hellaire/Bell = Fournette/Jones


Still nothing….


One wild card here might be the Chiefs “putridity” in the Red Zone—dead last in allowing touchdowns.


The Chiefs may have a wild card coach in DC, Steve Spagnulo, he minimized Brady’s Super Bowl dominance twice as the Giants DC.


Still nothing…


To hell with it…


I’m going with Mahomes dynamic legs and arms against the 25th ranked defense in completion percentage, although Tampa’s rookie, ILB Devin White will shadow Mahomes all day.


Having Spags might be the determining factor for the Chiefs when the post mortem of this game is written. Brady is much easier to defend; Spags will blitz up the middle, and that’s Tommy’s kryptonite


I was going to split the baby—but ended up with a five-point win and a repeat Ring for the Arrowheads; if this game doesn‘t go 10 points Over the Total, no game will.


Chiefs 43 Buccaneers 38






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