• Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK TWO

2019 Overall Tally: 8- 7 -1

Weekly Totals Picks: 3 – 3 Cumulative Totals: 3 - 3

Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 1 - 3

GAME OF THE WEEK 0 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 1 – 0

UPSET SPECIAL 0 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 0 – 0


GAME OF THE WEEK

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ L.A. RAMS -3 54 [O]


Week Two features the NFC conference matchup from last year when the Holy Men were robbed in broad daylight…


…and the meek shall inherit the bullshit…


Today’s game has New Orleans in L.A.to play in a pretend stadium, with pretend fans against a team that pretends like it had a right to be in Atlanta for last years Super Bowl.


Last week both clubs failed to cover the spread with the Rams managing a push against the Panthers in Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Saints at times looked a bit off, and Brees a bit old in the Big Easy, against an underrated Houston squad. New Orleans barely escaped with a win.


Week two in any given NFL season has a special “pressure” to it. Teams know 0-2 means the odds of post-season play drop to 12%--1-1 teams hit post-season pay dirt at a 55% clip.


To the ‘capper the Week Two axiom is, “don’t overreact to Week One."


Brees looked less than himself last week against The Shitkickers; his passes lacked zip, and like most offenses, the Saints lacked coordination.


When you put that analysis along side this Oddshark.com trend sheet picking the road dog Saints is risky. I had to rethink my play.

  • · The Saints are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games played in Weeks 1 and 2.

  • · At home in 2018, Jared Goff’s QB rating was 34 points higher than on the road.

  • · The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six games.

  • · The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Saints' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 43.6)

  • · The Rams led the league in points per game at home last season (36.3).

  • · The Rams are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.

  • · The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on the road.

  • · The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Saints' last 20 games in the late afternoon.

  • · The total has gone OVER in four of the Rams' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 71.4)

  • · The Rams are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.

  • · The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Rams.


Perfect GOW, a really tough call with a two-way spread—in short, the exact kind of game, the Wise Guys win big on.


We like to win, too----that’s why will take the Rams to Cover at home.


Rams 31 Saints 27


LOCK OF THE WEEK


CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW YORK JETS +2.5 46 [U]


That screeching noise you hear is the vast majority of NFL pundits doublefoot slamming the brakes on the whole “Cleveland is a Super Bowl contender” babble we’ve heard since OBJ became a Brown.


Last week against Buffalo, Cleveland played like …well…the Browns.


People forget, like it or not, the AFC North—top to bottom—has the best talent in the NFL…Lamar Jackson, Big Ben, Baker Mayfield. Even Cincy, left for dead by most expert is laden with young talent.


I think the Steelers have more depth, the Ravens, more upside, and I expect one of those two teams will win the North, but I would not be surprised if the Browns had their say or the Bengals shut the punditry up.


Part of maturing as a football team means you can beat the teams who don’t have prime talent or stand out depth, coaching, or momentum.


With recent reports Sam Darnold will miss the next few games with mononucleosis, we have to ask, has the bug infected anyone else? We hope not, but when you have opponents thinking your team has no heart, you’re liable to play with a block of wood on your shoulder.


https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/09/13/jarvis-landry-i-know-the-guys-on-this-team-have-heart/


If that doesn’t get the young Browns fired up, maybe Jets head coach, Adam Gase, threatening underperforming players with a trade to Cleveland, will fuel the Browns' fire.


The trends are mostly irrelevant in this baby. Despite last week, the Browns have some elite talent at all three levels of defense—and offense. Look for CB, Denzel Ward to Pick Six Trevor Simian and the Brownies to bounce back big—Under the Number.


Browns 30 Jets 10


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -2.5 44.5 [O]


New Orleans squeaked by Houston last week, 30-28, but the Texans defense picked Drew Brees twice and hung with the heavily favored Saints all the way till Will Lutz broke the Shit Kicker’s hearts with a 58-yard field goal.


This week the Texans host the Jags who trek to the Lone Star state minus starting QB, Nick Foles, after busting his collarbone in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. BTW, the Jacksonville defense responded by gladly consuming the 40-burger prepared by Patrick Mahomes and the Arrowhead offense.


The Jags are supposed to field one of the best defenses in the game, aren’t they?


Even if they don’t, their offense might prove adequate, or more, in the capable hands back up, Gardner Minshew, who along with his name, a 12-gauge arm, and an infectious confidence, will be a unique character to watch while Foles nurtures his shoulder.


Minshew reminds me of a cross between Bret Favre and Joe Namath—he’s a gunslinger, but his mechanics are flawless. You can get to know him here:

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/9/13/20862478/gardner-minshew-jacksonville-jaguars-qb-mustache


With that short-trigger release, and gregarious personality, Minshew might be just what an anemic NFL franchise like Jacksonville needs to fuel its rebirth.


I have a feeling Minshew is going to ignite his team. We know DeSean Jackson will be a factor this year, and the Texans have to believe, with Foles on the mend, it’s their division for the taking.


Houston will walk away from this game lucky to have won by a field goal—that means we believe Gardner and the Minshews will cover, Over the Number.


Texans 26 Jaguars 23


UPSET SPECIAL


CHICAGO BEARS @ DENVER BRONCOS +2 40.5 [O]


If you’ve followed The Gairzo from his Deep Into Sports days, you know I think the thin air at Mile High Stadium is a tangible home field advantage. I think because athletes perform better when they can, you know, breathe.


This is a transition year for the Broncos.


I’m being kind. GM, John Elway doesn’t look as good as he did in his first few years when he hit on some draft picks big, and Peyton Manning joined his the team.


Last few years Elway has blown more than one coaching hire, made some reaches on draft day and the Broncos now find themselves hand fighting with the stubborn albatross of mediocrity.


Adding pressure to Elway’s cooker—things are starting to get ugly as the Bowlen family maneuvers for control of the Broncos. Since the elder Pat passed three months ago, the family infighting has become more and more public--and unseemly.


Chicago has no such squabbling; the elder Virginia McCaskey has let football people run the club—but the Bears seem to be fighting the same demons as Denver.


Yes, Da Bears have a great defense, or one that can be great, but their recent drafts haven’t been great amidst the seemingly endless parade of fired coaches or GMs.


Currently, Ryan Pace is the GM who’s hired two coaches and drafted the QB he wanted—Mitch Trubisky. I watched Trubisky on opening night—the kid stopped looking after his second progression, and he couldn’t make a crucial play when he had to.


Part of that fives credit to Mike Pettine’s defensive scheme for Green Bay but Trubisky needs to improve at the same rate as the Bears defense if Chicago wants to be a world Champion.


We think the Broncos will do enough, Joe Flacco, specifically, to salvage an outright win.

But, honestly, I don’t know if Denver would be my choice without the two points—and the fact Vince Fangio, new Broncos head honcho, coached Trubisky last year.


The Broncos are one of the leagues’ best at home in September; take the two points and play the Under.


Broncos 23 Bears 21

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