• Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK THREE

Updated: Sep 28

GAME OF THE WEEK


Green Bay Packers (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5) 44.5 GW [U]


Both these teams are at the mercy of serious early season attrition.


The Bucs offensive firepower is on IR, out for this game, or suspended—lucky for the Packers, as what was supposed to be a vaunted defense has turned out to be awful in the early 2022 campaign.


No respectable defense can give up 6.1 YPP, and the Packers are no exception. It’s not as if the Meat Men have faced offensive juggernauts in the typically overrated and underperforming Vikings and a young Bears squad searching for the Justin Fields of dreams.


We’re betting that Week One loss to the Norsemen haunts Green Bay come playoff time.


Tampa Bay played better competition, and held two potent offenses to 13 points total.


Dallas is the most overrated team in pro sports history and the Saints are still adjusting to Jamius Winston—but the Saints are top ten in YPP and Dallas is a much better team with Dak Prescott.


History tells us Aaron Rodgers isn’t a Florida guy—he’s 3-5 in the Sunshine state and has never beaten the Bucs with Brady as QB.


We have to believe every Packers receiver can’t be expected to drop easy catches every game—can they?


We also believe The Mateys have to start feeling the loss of too many key players. Then again, so does Green Bay…


We’re calling the Packers to win outright in a close low scoring game—that means we like the Under as a Premium Play.


Packers 22

Buccaneers 19



LOCK OF THE WEEK


New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (+2.5) 40.5 LW [U]


There are 9—NINE--Home Dogs—last time I checked my Books. It’s been 30 years since that many Home Dogs graced an NFL odds sheet.


A lot of expert money is going the Panthers way and I’m just not buying it.


Applying the Gairzo Theory of the early NFL season—see below—Baker Mayfield is at the helm for the Carolinas, but his team is young and they may have exceeded expectations, but their last two performances won’t scare anyone. A few pundits are quick to point out the Black Cats could “easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2. More than a few teams can say that.

Guess the Sharps and public are all giddy about Carolina stellar pass defense stats --top three in Opp. YPP & YPG. They were defending passes thrown by Daniel Jones and Jacoby Brisset!


I’m looking at the Matchup Stats and the Saints field a defense that is at least as good.


Offensively, New Orleans has more talent, better weapons –and both teams need to protect their QBs much better than they have.


The price is too short to go with the Panthers; lay the 2.5 and play the Under.


Saints 27

Panthers 10


THE UPSET SPECIAL


Las Vegas Raiders (-2) vs. Tennessee Titans (+2) 45.5 US [U]


The Titans and Raiders play a football game Sunday—and it isn’t an exaggeration to say whichever team leaves the field 0-3-that team has almost no chance to make the playoffs.


Since 2002, 98 teams have started 0-3. One of those teams (the 2018 Texans) made it to the playoffs


That’s about as close as you can get to 1%


Want a bigger sample?


Since 1980, there have been 176 teams that started 0–3. Six of them have made the playoffs, so, now were up to about a 3% chance.


If these two squads don’t enter Nissan Stadium as desperate opponents, they are ripping their fans off.


You know The Gairzo Theory regarding the first 2-4 games of an NFL 17 game season:

  • Preseason is almost exclusively for finding out what players will provide your team depth...

  • Preseason is when coaches must evaluate draft picks and determine which UFA’s will stand out, step up, or fizzle into the void…

  • No NFL team puts in anything resembling a game plan prior to the regular season—that’s why, generally, offenses are significantly ahead of defense. Defensive players must expend more energy than their offensive counterparts. Offenses know exactly what they must do to execute a particular play; they know where they are going—defenders don’t; they must react to what comes at them…

  • Therefore, peak conditioning, particularly on defense is substandard until the 3rd or 4th week of the year. ...

  • Teams experiencing major change beyond normal player turnaround, like new OCs, DCs, or HCs, and /or Quarterback have all of the above realities and the major changes to navigate...


Of course, determining which teams navigate those internal upheavals better than the average—or not—is crucial to handicapping ATS.


That’s why adjusting to life without Big Ben will take a game or two more for Pittsburgh…Matt Ryan in Indy…Carson Wentz in DC…Mike McConnell in Minny, et al…


It’s also why were confident in our Green Bay pick this week. Aaron Rodgers knows he has to adjust to new receivers—and he knows his offense will…


OH YEAH THE PICK


We’re taking the Home Dog Titans to adjust on offense and run Derrick Henry down the Raida’s throat and make Vegas play a much slower game than new HC, Josh McDaniels would like.


The Titans lost a couple offensive linemen—that’s why Henry isn’t himself, but look for that defense to step up this week as they try to minimize DaVante Adam’s receptions from Derrick Carr.


The 1:00 window has proven historically difficult for the Raiders—but they have improved on their sub-par performances the past couple of years.


We’ll take the Home Dog Titans, the Points and the Over— given the mediocre defenses, should be a higher scoring affair than the public thinks.


Titans 27

Raiders 26


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Kansas City Chiefs (-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+5) 47.5 O/U


When researching my weekly Specials, I glance at a few respected sites in addition to the two-or three sites I pay for, to keep an eye on updated line movements, stats, injuries, etc.


Although my methodology didn’t help my cause in the first two weeks of this season, I often have enough info and hopefully insight and knowledge that my readers and serious fans know I don’t have my head up my ass.


Oh, shut up!!!


My picks—even in embarrassingly bad week(s) are always based on stats, facts, or info gleaned from several reputable sources.


What I try never to do is look for validation, or concurrence through any other filter but my mind—in its full, contrarian, satirical, often funny and unique incarnation…


Also, the analyses here are uniquely mine. I read other ‘Cappers to see their methods, but I never substitute their logic for mine.


Point being for every game, no matter where you spend your money—SU, ATS, O/U, we can find nearly polar opposite reasoning to justify any pick.


Very few times does the public, the Sharks, or Sharps, and yours truly agree. The Over/Under for this game is one of those rare instances... Nobody I’ve read today can understand why this number is so high.


I can’t disagree.


The Colts defense, a unit thought to, this year, become one of the AFC’s best, is a couple notches below pedestrian. They are missing some quality people—Shaque Leonard and Yannick Ngakoue, and several other DLs are hobbled.


Indy’s offense suffers from the same malaise. They tied a pretty bad Houston team and Jacksonville shut them out.


Did I mention the Jaguars shut the Colts out?


And…they’re playing the Chiefs—who are coming off a mini bye.


Andy Reid is 7-1 in KC and 19-3 overall after a bye (.864)


I’ll lay the 5 points and take the Chiefs to have their way with the Horseshoes.


The Over/Under? Like I said, I can’t disagree with the universe taking the Under—BUT, ‘m playing the Over anyway.


Like I said—I’m a contrarian…


Chiefs 38

Colts 23


Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5) 38.5 [O]

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (+2.5) 40.5 LW [O]

Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Chicago Bears(+-2.5) 40.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+5) 47.5 O/U

Buffalo Bills (-4.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (+4.5) 50.5

Detroit Lions (+7.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) 53.5

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. New England Patriots (+2.5). 43.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-6) vs. New York Jets (+6) 43.5

Las Vegas Raiders (-2) vs. Tennessee Titans (+2) 45.5 US [U]

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) vs. Washington Commanders (+3.5) 50.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) 47.5

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) 50.5

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) 42.5

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5) 44.5 GW [U]

San Francisco 49ers (-2) vs. Denver Broncos (+2) 43.5 [O]

Dallas Cowboys (+1) vs. New York Giants (-1) 39.5 [U]


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