NFL 2024 WEEK NINE = 8 - 7 2024 OVERALL. = 75 - 58 - 5 .564
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 4 O/U CUMULATIVE = 37 - 26 .587
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 3 - 1 CUMULATIVE = 27 - 15 - 3 .643
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 6 – 2 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 4 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 - 3
STEELERS 6 - 2 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 64 - 41 - 3 .610
NFL 2024 - WEEK TEN
Finishing my TNF post on my handicapping system....
I make my first glance picks before writing any analysis or reading anyone else’s thoughts, or listening to any podcast...
There are, typically 2-3 games I don’t make a call due to an off-kilter Line or Total, or a really close match-up, (usually divisional)...
Then I pick my Specials.
The Game of The Week is often in Prime Time or features a compelling Matchup. Lots of times there is no blockbuster game, ala, this week, so I choose one that features a good story--like Jared Goff’s outlier 2024 performance ...
The Lock of The Week, obviously, features what I perceive as one of the easiest picks of the week.
My Upset Special must be a contest in which the Underdog is under-valued and ups our chance of cashing in a winning ticket.
The Over/Under Special needs a matchup where weather, circumstances, or injury, or late breaking info will influence scoring below, or above, a given Total
Then I do the research or just from my own memory, try to justify or explain my pick. For example...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (+4) 48.5 GW [O]
Right off the top of my head, this Spread is 3 points too low.
Jared Goff is having an historical year, completing nearly 75% of his throws, and is second only to Lamar in QB Rating.
Houston’s game log reveals a weaker schedule in a lame division, with really only one “good” win against Buffalo and two squeakers against the Horseshoes.
My theory of this “case” holds that, as usual, NFL DCs have ‘figured out” second year phenom, C.J. Stroud. He is talented enough and has enough talent around him, that the Texans could pull off a SU upset, but the Shit Kickers sport an injury list--Nico Collins, Jerry Hughes, Jimmie Ward, and Kenyon Green to name a a few-- longer than Ron Jeremy’s--well--ahem..
Of course, the Jungle Kings have suffered defensively since Aidan Hutchinson broke his tibia--I’m basically betting the Texans just don’t have the horses to take advantage of what ails Detroit.
(We will look at the plethora of this years injuries in next week’s column.)
I avoid laying points to good teams Vegas relegates to Home Dog status, but Goff has the offense to throttle the Texans, I’m thinking the Jungle kings win by at least a touchdown.
I’m calling the Over.
***Just learned Collins will be activated; doesn’t change anything***
Lions 29
Texans 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) 50.5 LW [U]
Tua returns this week after a multi-week ride in the Concussion Express; I’m wary of where the Dolphins are headed. Their QB Room is so infirmed, they tried to raise my Grandma from the dead. Their injury list seems endless, their two wins were low scoring, one score borefests against NE and the Jags, they’ve lost three consecutive games, and their franchise QB has brain issues. I hope the guy never has another concussion; he should retire.
The Big Horns have also been stung by the injury bug, but they have a clear headed Matt Stafford, have won three in a row--two against quality opposition--and three of their four losses were very close games.
The Rams are beginning to look a lot like Sean McVay--one of the game’s premier coaches--wants them to look...
We’re playing the Under in this one.
Rams 27
Dolphins 23
UPSET SPECIAL
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders (-3) 44.5. US [O]
Really, I’m not kidding, I try hard to keep the Steelers out of my Specials but they’ve compelled their way in most of the year--oh well...
This Special comes down to Mike Tomlin--his excellence goes way beyond his record-setting streak of always having his team on the brink, in the hunt, or qualified for the playoffs.
Here are comprehensive Tomlin SU numbers, all relative to this week’s contest. (Remember, coaches don’t care about point spreads; winning is the goal.). According to TeamRankings.com, since 2007, when Tomlin was hired:
Percentage Situation. NFL Rank
.625 = All Games = 2nd (Remember, I never count NE in any analysis.)
.637 = Regular Season Games = 2nd
.631 = After A Win = 3rd
.750 = After a Bye = 1st
.680 = With Rest Advantage = 6th
.653 = Non-Conference Games = 2nd
.555 = As Road Team = 3rd
.505 = As Underdog = 1st
.471 = As Road Dog = 1st
.591 = Non-Division Games = 4th
.631 = After A Win
Here’s a more in depth look from Steve Makinen, the best stat guy in the business, over at vsin.com:
“...the Steelers are rested coming off of their bye week. They are on a seven-game post-bye week game winning streak, as well as a four-game ATS winning streak in such games...and their head coach Mike Tomlin is on a 27-19 SU and 32-12 ATS run as a single-digit underdog.”
From the Gairzo: Coach T’s 25-6, (.806), record against rookie QBs is third all time, barely a couple ticks behind behind Stram and Shula...
My instincts on why C.J. Stroud might not be as amazing this year breaks bad for Jayden Daniels because the defensive gurus in the league and everyone else and their mommies might be overreacting to a poorly defensed and ultimately lucky bounce of the oblong sphereroid into the waiting mitts of WR Noah Brown--resulting in a Hail Mary full of crap win over Da Bears.
Anyway too many young phenom QBs struggle after 8 games not only because opposing staffs are starting scheme more effectively against them but they start to feel the bruising results of NFL competition.
No disrespect intended, at all, to Jayden Daniels...The kid heaved that puppy a full 65 yards in the air, right where it needed to be. He deserves ROY honors as a legit top five QB in the game--but Chicago at #12 and Cleveland at #15 are the only decent defenses Daniels has faced.
The Steelers might be a good test for the rookie--he’ll be a test for them...
Take Pittsburgh, the Chalk, and bet the Over...
BTW
I know there are faithful Pittsburgh fans just dying to tell me that I forgot the most salient Tomlin stats
.444 = Playoff Games = 18th..
They’ll also gleefully remind me Mike Tomlin‘s defenses gave up 167 points in his last four losses to the Jags, Browns, Chiefs, and Bills...
There’s no retort to the suckiness of that atrocious record.
The loss to Jax was pathetic because Blake Fucking Bortles--that’s his legal name--was the Jags QB. My Grandma Felicia has more talent in her right arm, and she died 48 years ago.
The 2020 Steelers were not a real 12-4 squad. The defense was old, and injured and to lose to a divisional opponent in a first round shoot out wasn’t a surprise.
My point is, the Tomlin haters forget, no coach in history has overachieved as has Mike T. Since that loss to B.F. Bortles Coach Tomlin has led only two teams to double digit wins. I can safely at least four of the remaining five had no business compiling a record better than 5-11.
Mr. Makinen adds this nugget:
Tomlin’s Steelers are also 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013...
AH HAAAAAA!!! In previous posts I shattered the myth lousy Steeler fans parrot with impunity--that Tomlin “loses to teams he should beat”--the stats say he more often wins against teams should beat the Steelers...
Steelers 24
Commanders 21
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) 45 O/U
Aaron Rodgers is a perennial nominee for the annual Dick of the Year Award, but if you really watch the guy sling the rock--overhand, sidearm, underhand-he’s one of the most accurate throwers in the game’s history. He’s one of those guys who can put a team on his back, part the playoff ocean, and ride the wave to a championship.
But it won’t be this team. The Jets stink. They beat Houston for their only quality win--beating the Pats and Tennessee doesn’t count--their running game is non-existent, and they can’t stop the run. Their vaunted defense gave up 37 points to the Steelers in Russel Wilson’s first game of the year. Their defense is just as much a mirage as Roger’s common sense.
Meanwhile, in the desert, young head honcho, Jonathan Gannon, and QB Kyler Murray are becoming a team to be reckoned with, and the recent acquisition of Barron Browning from Denver should help the Cardinals to, at least, apply some pressure to opposing QBs. A stat Arizona needs to improve on--currently 31st in the NFL--if they want stay atop the mediocre mountain that is the NFC West.
Only the 49ers have a positive point differential and one game separates first place from last but the Cards, with Murray and Gannon starting to synch up, seem to have an edge right now.
We love this for our O/U Special because we think Murray can negate the Jets agressive defense and Rodgers can exploit a suspect Arizona secondary.
We’ll lay the 1.5 and go with the Cardinals.
Cardinals 26
Jets 22
As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK TEN - GAME - SPREAD - TOTAL
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6) 53 [O]
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers (+4.5) 42.4 [U]
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears (-7) 39.5
Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) 47.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) 46.5
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) 42.5
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (+3) 47.5
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5) 48.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders (-2.5) 44.5. US. [O]
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) 38
New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) 45 O/U
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) 44.5
Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans (+4) 48.5 GW. [O]
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) 50.5 LW [U]
Comentarios