NFL WEEK SIX ATS
Updated: Oct 21
WEEK SIX 2021
Google from now until Black Friday, you will not find a better mark for anyone’s “Specials” than yours truly’s 15-5 (.750) mark for the season. My 11- 1 performance (.916) for the last three NFL weekends is nothing short of unprecedented.
Add to that our very close miss on a four-legged parlay---the Magpies failed me miserably—and I might even be hotter than I think I am.
Unless anyone proves me wrong, for the 2021 NFL campaign, the Gairzo is—so far—the best in the business. Our bank account at BetNow.com has doubled and I’ve upped my units to 20.00 each
Okay, fine, all of the above is simply my unique way of preparing you for a couple of horrendous tallies in the offing.
You’ve been warned
We’re going to enjoy it, though, until the Boys in Vegas kick me in the pecans.
You’ve been warned again.
Just like most everyone who picks every game on the slate—the more games you bet, the more the immoral Arc of the Vegas Universe bends toward injustice…Don’t believe me?
Of the eight experts writing for CBSSport.com, and picking every NFL game against the spread ATS:
· Four are at .500 or worse
· Two are 2 games over .500
· One is 4 games over .500
· Ryan Wilson seems determined to make the Gairzo look foolish. He’s 54-24-3.
That’s a .692 clip and Mr. Wilson is the best in that category, who I’ve seen on the Web. Let’s wait a month and see if he can keep it up.
Please note, the small differences you’ll notice in total games called are due to when each site tallies their picks for the week. Also spreads vary because sites use different sports books to get their odds. It’s as close as ‘cappers can get to a level playing field.
My work is documented without line shifts, or picking cherries. I am betting my Specials, and often 3-4 Totals a week.
Here’s our tally sheet to date:
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK FIVE
Week Five Tally: 7 – 9 2021 Overall Tally: 39 – 41
Week Five Totals 5 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 17 – 13
Weekly Specials 4 – 0 Cumulative Specials: 15 – 5
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 0 O/U OF THE WEEK 4 – 1
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 32 – 18 PARLAYS 1 – 2
Let’ see how Week Six treats us…
GAME OF THE WEEK
We don’t call it the game of the Week for nothing. The Browns and Redbirds field two of the most talented rosters in the business and this could be a preview for a much bigger game, come February.
The matchup stats reveal the Cardinals to be the real deal. The entire team has bought into young HC, Kliff Kingsbury and 3rd year QB stud, Kyler Murray.
Much like the Browns have decided Kevin Stefanski will lead them to the promised land along with TV commercial king, Baker Mayfield—and the best rushing attack in the league.
Arizona is a legit top five offense—and their defense forces two takeaways per game and is fourth best in preventing 3rd down conversions. Cleveland’s offense is right there with ’Zonas and is the second best at not turning the ball over.
I think Murray is more dynamic than Mayfield and Murray’s 17+-point advantage in QB rating proves the point.
Either team is an attractive bet in this one. The Browns are home favorites despite a high scoring slugfest loss to the Bolts last week.
Arizona is 5-0 playing one of the toughest schedules on the slate.
Since 2019, Cleveland is a .500 football team as a Home Favorite; the Red Birds win 75% of their games as a Road Dog.
Computers are predicting a Browns blowout. Sharps like Cleveland at home. I’ll go against the world, thinking these Cardinals getting 3.5 points versus anyone is a bargain.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
The Cincy Bengals are not getting the respect they, to my eye, have clearly earned. Under not-the-president Zachary Taylor, the Bengals field the 7th best scoring defense, 8th best passing defense (YPP), and surrender 10th least defensive RYPG.
Cincinnati’s own, Joe Burrow gains 8.1 YPPass. The kid doesn’t panic, has the third best completion percentage in the league—and he gets better every week.
Looking at the matchup grid, man, Detroit is mediocre or worse.
As long as Dan Campbell can infuse his group with the passion he feels for the game, the Jungle Kings have a shot to beat anyone. But Campbell needs more than passion; his team needs discipline, consistency—and talent.
Detroit doesn’t have enough of anything right now—they’re where Cincy was three years ago—but they have a couple first rounders in the draft chute thanks to the Stafford/Goff trade.
Cincy by at least a touchdown—Under the Number.
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Under Pete Carroll, the Seattle Seahawks are 14- 2 in prime time; a tremendous record no doubt due to Russell Wilsons greatness—but he’ll be on IR, twiddling one very sore thumb on his team’s sideline.
Geno Smith will take his place and, that will be to Pittsburgh’s advantage. Fortunately for Seattle fans Pete Carroll has a knack for finding serviceable backup QBs.
Unfortunately, Geno Smith is about to run into a buzz saw that can carve the Gulls up two ways: Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris found some holes—122 yards/5.3 average last week against the Broncos, one of the better rush defenses in the NFL. Seattle surrenders 4.5 RYPP and 145 per game. If the Pittsburgh offensive line—starting two rookies and two second year men is starting to gel the way they think they are, this will be Harris’ coming out party.
Also, Pittsburgh’s line-backing core figures to be stronger in coverage thanks to former Brown, ILB, Joe Schobert and the return of ILB, Devin Bush—and a healthy T.J. Watt coming off the edge. The Men of Steel are holding opposing QBs to the 9th worst completion percentage in the league.
That doesn’t bode well for a backup QB
This Pittsburgh team had a lot of injuries to the wrong people, and those guys are getting healthier—and I don’t think Big Ben is as lousy as some people think—he too is getting comfortable behind that very green O-line.
The two wildcards in the game are the leagues studliest safeties—the Gull’s Jamal Adams and Pittsburgh’s Minkah Fitzpatrick—either one can change the flow of a game with one, or more, big plays.
The one trend is Seattle has to overcome: Tomlin's .661 winning percentage in primetime is the third-best in the NFL since 2007.
Given the injuries to key players, the lack of an elite ground game by either team, and the precarious QB situations, this one has the trappings of a close game the home team ices with a late field goal.
We’re calling the Over.
This one caught our eye for two reasons: Miami’s uncertainty at the quarterback position, and Trevor Lawrence as the franchise QB for the Jags.
We think Lawrence is finding himself, even if he is trapped in Urban Meyer’s funhouse mirror leadership circus. It helps that RB James Robinson had his best game of 2021 last week with 149 on 18 carries, and that Miami’s defense gives up134 YPG on the ground.
Make no mistake on this baby folks; two of the NFL’s worst defenses will take the Tottenham Hotspur Field in London. In fact, given their pre-season hype, Miami may be the most disappointing defense in 2021. The Jags are the NFL turnover kings so far this year.
Both teams have a losing record in London, and both coaches are sweating cannon balls.
We think Lawrence has his coming out party; the Jags win outright.
Play the Under cautiously,
My Week Six picks are below in bold italics…
Bye: 49ers, Jets, Saints, Falcons
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL