- Gary Porpora
NFL WEEK SEVEN 2021
Updated: Oct 26, 2021
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK SIX
Week Six Tally: 6 – 8 2021 Overall Tally: 45 – 49 .479
Week Six Totals 6 – 0 Cumulative Totals: 23 – 13 .639
Weekly Specials 4 – 0 Cumulative Specials: 19 5 .792
GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 6 – 0 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 – 1
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 42 – 18 .700 PARLAYS 1 – 3
Once you look past the dreadful .479 for my overall score, there’s nobody—and I’ve surfed the ‘Net—close to my blistering .792 for my Specials. .700 for my Premium slate is equally impressive.
Really, folks, I’m not bragging but this is the most profitable six-week run I’ve had during my twelve year handicapping “hobby.” My account has doubled, and if I had any betting balls at all, I’d be in the five-figure neighborhood.
No way I’m just going to shrug and say I’ve been lucky—uh uh—my analysis, my system has been working. (Of course a real Shark will maintain that run for the whole season.) Even so, I have made some awful calls—the most recent Thursday Nighter is a prime example.
I went against my usual TNF criteria:
· When in doubt go with the home team
· Unless almost every trend, stat, injury report, consensus, and computer analysis says otherwise—TAKE THE HOME Team…
Before I picked the Broncs, I thought the Browns were ripe for an upset, but I based it mostly on one criterion—the injury report. I knew Mayfield was out but two receivers, a starting lineman, a linebacker, and tight end, David Njoku—all listed as injured and questionable—played the entire game.
Football, unlike any other sport causes players to practice and play while experiencing a high level of pain. There’s a reason these guys soak in a tub full of ice after a game or during the week. Add to that a long flight to a hotel away from the comforts of home and family and it isn’t unreasonable to add a point or 1.5 points to the standard 3 points for home field advantage.
Also being a Steelers fan, I have to be acutely aware of my built in AFC North bias; that means I have to be sure not to let my hope that the Browns, Bengals, or Magpies never win another game cloud my judgment.
Rest assured, I learn from my mistakes; lets see if I can apply those lessons to this week’s slate of NFL games.
GAME OF THE WEEK
CINCINATTI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6.5, 46.5) GW [O]
I have been betting on and winning with the Bengals all year, but is the sill recovering Joe Burrow ready to match drives with Lamar Jackson?
It takes time for still developing teams, coaches and players time to learn how to win—and even longer learning how to win pivotal division contests.
Don’t get me wrong, The Striped Cats are the better defensive team here, and you gotta figure this is going to be one of the tight AFC North slugfest after which the ice baths are working overtime.
For me, I’d love to pick Cincy, but the Magpies have won five in a row with three victories against AFC contenders; the Bengals lost by a field goal to the Pack and Bears.
Lamar Jackson is too dominant, dynamic, and determined and his Ravens held the Bolts to six points last week---the same Chargers who are supposed to be one of the AFC favorites.
The Crows have 16 people still on IR—when they start coming back to a team that’s starting to dominate, Baltimore becomes a lot deeper, and better, on defense.
Cincy will stay in it; Jackson amazes late with a running TD.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-3.5, 42.5) LW [O]
I’ve been handicapping for twelve years; it is rare to look at an NFL slate of games and not see one or more games you can quickly label a Lock of The Week.
When Vegas starts laying 15,17,18 point spreads, I walk away because only suckers bet against the Gangsters throwing those numbers around.
Nor do I ever pick a Lock against a Home Dog—I thought seriously about breaking that rule and taking Atlanta as a Road Fave against Miami, until I honed in on this game.
The matchup stats, consensus and the Sharks are all picking the Gold Miners probably because across the board he Prospectors rate better than the Colts who have been in every game but have only beaten the lowly Dolphins and Texans.
Likewise, San Fran has played good teams tough but have only beaten the Eagles and
Detroit, both on the road.
This is a big game for both clubs if they want to stay relevant down the stretch. I’ll take San Fran coming off a bye. Jimmmy G. will outduel Carson W.
Over the Total is the call here.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (+4.5, 57.5) US [U]
One thing we know about Titans head coach, Mike Vrabel, he is as cool as a younger Elvis, specially given the way he played timeout chicken with Sean McDermott in the Monday Nighter.
If they were cars drag racing on a dark mountain highway, McDermott would have sped right over the cliff.
I have no qualms with any coach’s decision to go for a win or two points. They have faith in their guys and sometimes it just doesn’t fall your team’s way, but…
No one seems to care enough to ask: Why were the Bills in a tizzy to gain a yard for the first down with a hurried QB sneak to continue the last-second drive—with two times out in McDermott’s pocket?
What was the hurry? You’ve got one of the best running QBs in the game, a yard gets you a first down; 2.5 yards gets you a TD and a win.
Here’s what I found on the Bills site:
To a man Buffalo's players were totally in favor of trying to win the game in that moment. Converting on the 4th-and-1 would've given the Bills a fresh set of downs on the Titans two-yard line with two timeouts at their disposal down three points.
And everyone’s okay with that? WTF!!!…
What was the hurry? Take a timeout, make sure everyone is on the same page. Call the play that will gain at least the yard needed—I would have rolled Allen out, give him the RPO. Worst-case scenario, he loses a couple yards and calls time out again.
If I‘m an owner paying my coach 6-7 million bucks a season, I expect basic strategy to be routinely executed.
McDermott got greedy—you could almost feel him waiting for Vrabel to call the timeout to set his defense. Vrabel stood, arms folded, cool as a Popsicle in an igloo.
Before McDermott knew it he was Thelma & Louise-ing into the Grand Canyon.
That’s why this will be one of the few games I’ll bet on in a really awful week for handicappers.
Of his 23 losses since 2018—including playoffs—as Tennessee’s HC, Vrabel has lost only nine games by more than 11 points. Not impressed?
He’s never had a great QB, a great offense or defense, even with the bull, Derek Henry, Vrabel’s O-Lines have graded out only a rung or two above average. Only his 2018 defense and last year’s offense were top ten units
Vrabel knows how to use his players to stay in nearly every game he plays. Here are a handful of trends:
· Kansas City is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games.
· The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games.
· Kansas City is 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
· Kansas City is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Tennessee.
· Kansas City is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games on the road.
· The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tennessee.
· Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
· The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games.
· Tennessee is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
· The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 10 games against Kansas City.
· The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tennessee's last 18 games at home.
· The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
· Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games this season.
When Andy Reid was in Philly his teams were balanced with top 5-10 ranked offenses and defenses; when he finally won his Super Bowl his defense was very average, and the Chiefs were carried by Patrick Mahomes unique brilliance.
This year’s KC defense is the league’s worst.
I’m betting Vrabel will pound Derrick Henry all day, forcing the Chiefs atrocious back seven into the box. Then the lanes open up and Tannehill will look like Joe Montana.
If Tennessee doesn’t win, they won’t lose by much. The Under is a cautious play here.
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
ATLANTA FALCONS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (+2.5, 47.5) O/U
Miami is the most disappointing team in the league; Atlanta is rebuilding.
Atlanta has Matty ICE…It’s really humid in Miami…
Using that kind of logic, how can I lose?
I’m calling the Under—not betting a penny
My picks are below in bold italics...
Thurs., Oct. 21
Broncos at Browns (-1.5, 40.5) [U]
Sunday, Oct. 24
Panthers at NY Giants (+3, 43)
NY Jets at Patriots (-7, 42.5)
Chiefs at Titans (+4.5, 57.5) US [U]
Football Team at Packers (-7.5, 48.5)
Falcons at Dolphins (+2.5, 47.5) O/U
Bengals at Ravens (-6.5, 46.5) GW [O]
Lions at Rams (-15.5, 50.5)
Eagles at Raiders (-3, 49)
Texans at Cardinals (-17.5, 47.5)
Bears at Bucs (-12.5, 47)
Colts at 49ers (-4 44) LW [O]
Monday, Oct. 25
Saints at Seahawks (+4.5, 42.5) [U]