NFL WEEK FOURTEEN - PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- 11 minutes ago
- 5 min read
NFL 2025 WEEK THIRTEEN = 5 - 11 2025 OVERALL. = 100 - 92 - 3
WEEKLY O/U = 4 - 5 O/U CUMULATIVE = 51 - 45
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 2 - 3 CUMULATIVE = 32 - 32 - 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 6 – 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 6
UPSET SPECIAL 6 - 7 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 5
STEELERS/OTHER 5 - 7 - 1
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 84 - 77 -1
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GAME OF THE WEEK/STEELERS
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -6 42.5 GW O/U
Remembering what this game used to be--the fiercest, most physical game of the year between two perennial Super Bowl contenders--is about all fans of these AFC North rivals can do.
Not saying the hitting won’t be as intense as any previous incarnation of this match-up. (Rumor has it, when these teams take the same field, the hate auras emanating from Central Maryland and Southwestern Pennsylvania are visible from space.)
It’s just the 2025 version of this rivalry will feature defenses that really are below any acceptable standard of either franchise.
Pittsburgh surrenders 365 YPG, the Crows 352; 5.3 And 5.4 YPP, respectively.
The reason I’m splitting the call on this game rests with the baffling inconsistency of the Steelers rushing defense. Last week, the Bills rang up 249 yards on the league’s highest-paid “D”, mostly on James Cook's cutbacks, Pittsburgh over-pursuing their gaps, and tackling like Catholic schoolgirls
More infuriating was Mike Tomlin’s failure to adjust to that incessant ground pounding.
The defensive stats that most consistently predict success in the NFL are how stingy your rush defense is and how well you adjust to your opponent in game,
In Tomlin’s 19 years at the Steelers helm, his rushing defenses ranked as follows:
Top Five = 7
Top Ten = 11
Average = 5 (Between 11-20)
Below Average = 3 (Between 21-32)
Awful = 1 (32--2021)
Don’t have time to verify, but I’d bet no other team, except the Magpies, comes close to such consistent excellence.
Here’s the breakdown for Pittsburgh’s 2nd half points allowed--the most accurate stat to determine how coaches adjust in game:
Top Fives = 8
Top Ten = 12
Average = 3 (Between 11-20)
Below Average = 4 (Between 21-32)
Awful = 1 (31--2025)
Note how those two breakdowns correlate almost exactly.
If you consistently stop the opponent’s running game, you, by default, can control the pace of most any game.
If you adjust consistently well to how an opponent is besting your group, you, at minimum, can keep just about any game within reach.
Whether his 19 years of consolidating power within the Pittsburgh braintrust has stunted Coach Tomlin’s ability to field a consistent stifling rush defense and/or clouded his effectiveness at adjusting to opposing offenses, his Steeler defenses of late have become predictable and vulnerable. In fan-speak, they stink.
OH YEAH, THE CALL
Lamar Jackson with a Turf Toe will always be better than a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers with a busted left wrist--and why do I get the feeling every time he has to scramble, A-A-Ron’s surgically repaired Achilles comes closer to popping?
In the last sixteen games---playoffs included--of the NFL’s meanest rivalry, there have been only three games decided by more than 7 points.
That trend will continue.
Take Pittsburgh and the touchdown--Baltimore wins it on a last second field goal.
Ravens 27
Steelers 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns -3.5 33.5 LW [O]
I’m betting on the Browns to torture Cam Ward and the Titans. The odds-on 2025 DPOY candidate, Myles Garrett, will have a hand in at least one defensive touchdown.
The Total is just too low. Play the Over.
Browns 21
Titans 13
UPSET SPECIAL
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 47.5 US
As they say, something’s gotta give: This puppy features the league’s best rusher, Indy’s Jonathan Taylor, against the surprising #1 rush defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Indy QB, Daniel Jones, is playing with a fractured fibula, and his movement is severely compromised. He will play with a special protective pad on his leg, but I have to wonder if that approach risks his long-term viability. Making plays with his legs is a big part of Jones' game.
Add to Jones’ misfortune, sidelining injuries to Sauce Gardner and Deforest Buckner on the Colts defense, and the much more consistent play of the ‘Wires QB, Trevor Lawrence, and the Home Dog washes out as the smart pick.
The Under looks pretty good too.
Jaguars 26
Colts 19
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 42 O/U
Fun Fact: These teams have lost a combined 11 games, none have been decided by more than eight--8!--points.
Funner Fact: Each of those 11 losses were against teams that are in the thick of playoff contention.
Which is a side-door way of saying these are two quality football teams in every aspect of the game.
Consider this a feel pick.
I’ve been betting on the Arrowheads to have the breakout game that will, yet again, thrust them into post-season favorite status. Andy Reid’s bunch reflects his class and football acumen, and I find myself rooting for them to continue their run.
Normally, my lost love for the Cowboys spills over into almost anything Texas--politics, college sports, Miss America pageants, cooking, golf--did I mention politics?
Still, Demeco Ryan continues to do a fantastic job for the Shit Kickers, and his Texans are playing defense at a highly effective level--Top Four in every important category.
This outing could reasonably be seen as a smoldering, low scoring battle between championship contenders.
I have a hunch we’re looking at a shootout.
Chiefs win, Houston Covers--well Over the Number...
Chiefs 27
Texans 24
As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)
NFL WEEK 14 ODDS POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS
Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions -3 54.5 [U]
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons +7 44.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens -6 42.5 GW [O]
Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns -4 33.5 LW [O]
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -6.5 44.5.
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 47.5 US [U]
Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings -2 41.5
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets +3 41.5
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 42.5
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 40.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals +8 48.5
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills. -5.5 53
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 42 O/U
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers. +3 40.5. [O]
The Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers are off this week.
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