2024 WEEK FOURTEEN = 6 - 7 2024 OVERALL. = 119 - 84 - 5 .586
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE = 60 - 35 .632
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 4 - 1 CUMULATIVE = 44 - 23 - 3 .657
GAME OF THE WEEK 7 – 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 9 – 4 - 2
UPSET SPECIAL 8– 5 - 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 9 - 5
STEELERS 11 - 2
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 104 - 58 - 3 .642
A LITTLE HOUSE KEEPING
***On Thursday I was working on a screenplay and spaced posting my TNF column on this site. I wrote the piece early in the day, but forgot about it during my real work.
My only option is to discard the picks--I had the Big Horns and the Under--and, going forward, make sure I publish immediately after I write.***
NFL 2024 - WEEK FOURTEEN
GAME OF THE WEEK
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (-1.5) 53.5 GW [O]
Contrary to a lot of handicappers out there, the last quarter of the season is when we simplify our analyses, relying on more recent results, and focusing on the late Gil Brandt’s criteria for playoff handicapping.
It’s perfectly appropriate to cloak the season’s last month in post-season garb--and this game proves the point. Not only is this match-up likely to be a prequel to a much more significant game on 2/11/25, it is also a rare regular season inter-conference game both teams must win to remain serious candidates to earn a bye.
In the era of the 17 game schedule--don’t fool yourself; 18 is inevitable--the bye almost guarantees an appearance in the conference championships.
That has been the case over the previous four seasons.
SOME STATS
Dan Campbell is the better coach, plays in a tougher division, and always has his opponents wondering what ballsy decision he’ll make next.
Stats-wise, Jared Goff is a few rungs better than Josh Allen--but--and this very well could determine the outcome--Allen has played like a man on a mission, willing to do anything to secure victory.
The home team Lions check more boxes, but a victory by either squad this week or in February wouldn’t be surprising.
We’ll go with Detroit, lay the 1.5 and call the Over...
Lions 38
Bills 35
UPSET SPECIAL
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3) 47 US [O]
Besides the three score spread in the Ravens/Giant game we were stuck trying to find a real Upset Special we could love.
We have seven Home Dogs howling in Week 15 and this game is the only one where the Chalk has betting value.
If I wasn’t locked into a Four-Special format, I wouldn’t pick this Special this week, and I advise my readers to skip the game because Green Bay has played the harder schedule, losing close, twice, to Detroit; their remaining two losses were to Minnesota and Philly--but the Pack is favored for a reason.
They enjoy a slim, but consistent edge in our criteria, but The Gulls have won four in a row and are beginning to gel--especially their defense--under new head coach Mike Mcdonald.
The quarterbacks’ talents compels us to call the Over...
Packers 26
Seahawks 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-3.5) 44 LW [U]
This Special was different; we locked on this game the moment we saw the lines on Wednesday.
Give Sean Payton credit. By giving Pittsburgh Russell Wilson and paying the guy 38M+ in salary, the former Saints head coach put his career on the line and it seems to have paid off for both clubs.
Guarantee you, Pittsburgh is a happier group...
The Wild Horses sit at a Wild-Card worthy 8-5, and except for the Ravens shellacking them 41-10 in Week Nine at M & T, Denver was close in each of their other four losses--all by 7-points or less.
Meanwhile, the Colts can point to the three-point nail biter over a Pittsburgh team, still forging its identity, and trying to find a quarterback, as their only win against a .500 team.
Denver should win this one comfortably--Under the Total...
Broncos 23
Colts 16
O/U OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5). 42.5 O/U
This Total struck us as 3-4 points too low when we first saw it.
Bryce Young has found firmer footing in his second year as the Panthers signal caller, and Cooper Rush has found some traction in Dallas after Dak Prescott’s hammy ripped right off the bone in the “Boys Week Nine loss to the Falcons.
More simply, we like Young’s progress. His arc has shown there has to be some patient heads when it comes to 1st round QB’s who stumble at the start--especially when their new teams stink to high heaven.
Still, we don’t believe the Black Cats should be giving points to anyone.
These trends from the great Steve Makinen over at vsin.com:
Dallas is 24-8 SU & 22-10 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020, and head coach Mike McCarthy boasts a 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS record in the last 15 games vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more...
NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-45 SU and 18-40-4 ATS (31%) in game #4 since 2003.
NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 60-37 SU but 38-55-4 ATS (40.9%).
Add to that mish-mash of stats Dallas’ deeper roster, offensive weapons Carolina can’t match up with, and Cowboys defensive phenom, Micah Parsons, and I’m thinking Jerrah’s Boys are going to take their frustration, borne of yet another over-hyped, under-achieving season, out on a young team that needs another year or two of seasoning.
The Over is our Premium play.
Cowboys 26
Panthers 21
THE STEELERS GAME
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 43.5
The betting public, almost 2/3 of it, back the Steelers in this game--which makes me almost want to change my call.
Here are some more salient trends from vsin.com, Teamrankings.com, And cbssports.com:
Pittsburgh is 18-7 SU and 19-6 ATS vs. teams with better records since 2013...Proving, yet again, that Mike Tomlin wins more games, more often, against teams that “should” beat his Steelers...
Since 2012, QB Russell Wilson is 22-14 SU and 26-11 ATS vs. teams with elite defenses--those allowing below 20 PPG..
When the majority number of bets was on a Road Dog for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%), going back to September 2022.
Veteran QBs with new teams play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 49-47 SU and 53-40-3 ATS (57%) since 2004, and 66-45-5 ATS (59.5%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
Since 2015, NFL teams winning at .830 or higher--in this game, Philly-- are just 41-35 SU and 23-52-1 ATS (30.7%) in December/January regular season games.
None of the above matters to this handicapper. What does is Pittsburgh’s run defense which battled another top five offensive line and held the human freight train, Baltimore's Derek Henry, to 65 yards in Week 11.
If I’m Mike Tomlin, I make Hurts, who has been struggling of late, beat me.
Pittsburgh will Cover the handful of points--Over the Total.
Eagles 26
Steelers 23
As usual, all my Specials and Totals pick are below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK 15 ODDS: POINT SPREADS...TOTALS
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-2) 46.5 [U] Not posted
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers (-2.5). 42.5 O/U
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns (+6.5) 43.5
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-2) 47.5
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5). 40.5
Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints (+7.5) 43.5
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants (+16.5) 43.5.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (+5) 47.5
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals (-6) 45
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-3.5) 42.5 LW [U]
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions (-2.5) 53.5 GW [O]
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) 46.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 43.5. [O]
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (+3) 47 US [O]
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5). 43.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5). 43.5
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