top of page
  • Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK ELEVEN - PICKS ATS...

Updated: Nov 20, 2023

NFL 2023 - WEEK ELEVEN

NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK TEN - 2023 = 7 - 6 - 1 

WEEKLY OVERALL =  72 – 74 - 4   

0/U  =  3 - 4          O/U CUMULATIVE 38 - 32   .543

SPECIALS  2 - 1 – 1      SPECIALS CUMULATIVE  24 - 15 - 1   .615

GAME OF THE WEEK    7 – 3  LOCK OF THE WEEK   6 – 3 - 1 

UPSET SPECIAL     3 – 7                O/U OF THE WEEK   8 - 2

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE   =  62 - 47 - 1   .569



LOCK OF THE WEEK

New York Jets (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) 40.5 LW  [O]


There is not a legitimate Lock on this week’s schedule; just what the NFL and Vegas want. Miami is a top five team at home according VSIN’s Home Field Advantage Chart--but the Eye Patches are playing inspired football since Mark Davis canned Josh McDaniels.


So, we settled on this game...


Buffalo will have success on the ground against a bottom five rush defense for the Jets.  The Bills need to take pressure off Josh Allen, who tends to press--and make mistakes--when the game is all on him.


Even if Allen has to win it by himself, he might have time to look at every option.  The Jets are a more than respectable 9th in Sack%, but Buffalo is 2nd best in the league at preventing sacks.


Conversely, with the NFL’s 5th best sack%, Buffalo will torment Zack Wilson who folds like a lawn chair under pressure.  


All of the above means both teams will lean on the running game; that’s a big  deal for the Bills, as Josh Allen, even if facing a good rush, is very capable of making a game changing play more than any player New York has.


We think the spread should be higher a full point, so we’re getting value and we will lay the 6.5 a and love the Under.


Buffalo  26

Jets  13



UPSET SPECIAL

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Green Bay Packers (+3) 44.5  US  [O]


There’s not a convincing Upset on this week’s slate either.  I don’t like the Giants even with double digit points.  Miami is a top three team at home, or as a home favorite; I don’t care if the Books are giving the Raiders 10 points--and even though I’m picking the Sweet Carolines to Cover against the Cowsills, Dallas is capable of blowing them out of the Panthers lair.


So I settled, yet again...


Green Bay is a top five Home/Home Dog team. According to Steve Mackinen over at vsin.com. They are one of four team to win 70+ percent of their home games since 2020, and one of four with an ATS record north of .600.  Surprisingly, the Electricians are one of the best away teams in every circumstance.  


This pick is about what these squads have done so far and where they are headed.

Jordan Love is finally starting after four years under the mighty egoist that is Aaron Rogers.  The results have been mixed.


Justin Herbert is in his fourth year as the Bolt’s starting QB.  The results have been mixed; not so much for the very gifted Herbert but for his Chargers who seem incapable of ever assembling a defense worthy of their offense. 


Ever.  In. My. Lifetime.


Phillip Rivers--a truly talented QB--even with his patented shotput throwing motion, never had even a complimentary defense. The only good news on the Zappers defense is their 3rd  best ranking on 3rd Down Conversion% and 8th ranking in takeaways/game; they also rank 8th in Sack%.  Their run defense is barely respectable.


Otherwise, here’s a quick look at todays Bolts defense:


  • Opp. Points/Game 23.9 (#24)

  • Opp. Yards/Game 393.2 (#31)

  • Opp. Yards/Play 5.9 (#29)

  • Opp.TDs/Game  2.8(#25)

  • Opp. Rush TDs/Game  1.2 (#27)

  • Opp. Pass Play % 62.91% (#27)

  • Opp Completion % 68.19 (#25)

  • Opp Yards/Pass 7.5 (#30)

  • Opp Pass Yards/Game  291.2 (#32)


That bullet list, and a coach who thinks his analytics are infallible and makes head scratching decisions to prove it, are why, regardless of city, Chargerville is the place where potential HOF QBs go to die a slow, sometimes excruciating death


In Green Bay, excepting a mediocre rushing defense--which the Bolts can’t exploit, as they only average 3,8 YPR--the Pack is no worse than 11th in any important defensive category.  That’s probably why fourth year rookie QB, Jordan Love can make mistakes Justin Herbert can’t.


We’re taking the home team and playing the Over.


Packers 26

Chargers 20



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) @ Cleveland Browns (-4) 38.5  O/U  [U]


***Full Disclosure.  I’m a Pittsburgh fan; don’t bet my analysis is correct--even though I’m goddamn sure it is...***


You know the stats; since 2007, under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers SU are the best Underdogs and Home Dogs in the NFL and have the second best--only to the Cheaters--division record.


ATS, Pittsburgh holds the same rankings; the Packers are best ATS.


This promises to be one of those slobber-knocker games in which defensive splash plays rule the day, and it will probably come down to a long field goal to win for either team.


Guess who I’m taking?  


(This is the third week where I read on credible sites that Pat Friermuth will be playing--he is a difference maker to Pickett and OC, Matt Canada.  The following is based on Friermuth’s participation.)


Just a feeling Kenny “The Fence” Pickett and the Steelers are going to breakout offensively against a high quality Cleveland defense.  It can’t hurt Pittsburgh that QB, Deshaun “Love Me Long Time” Watson is out for the year and will be replaced by Dorian Thompson Robinson.


It’s an insult to the Black & Yellers, the line only moved two points when Watson was put on IR.  Pittsburgh isn’t just being disrespected--they are being given no respect. 


Unfortunately they deserve every bit of what they aren’t getting...


Matchup stats don’t lie.  On paper this should be a blowout no matter who is quarterbacking the Browns.  Defensively, Cleveland is top three in every category, most notably 3rd down conversions allowed and YPG allowed--but, oddly, a lame 27th in RZ Touchdowns Allowed.  Surprisingly Cleveland allows 2.3 TDs a game--good for only 17th in the league.


The Brownies are also a top three rushing team, even with Nick Chubb out for the year.  

It looks worse for Pittsburgh with every stat we look at.


The reason why Mike Tomlin’s crew isn’t trembling with fear is because his Steelers lead the league in  the Great Equalizer category: 


TURNOVERS


  • STEELERS BROWNS

  • TO Margin/Game +1.1 (#1) Opp TO Margin/Game +0.4 (#24)

  • Giveaways/Game 0.9 (#3)      Takeaways/Game 1.7 (#8)

  • Takeaways/Game 2.0 (#1)     Giveaways/Game 2.1 (#32)

  • Int Thrown % 2.11% (#15) Opp Int Thrown % 3.81% (#2)

  • Opp Int Thrown % 3.11% (#8) Int Thrown% 3.92% (#30)


All of the above means If Cleveland takes care of the ball; if Dorian Thompson Robinson doesn’t turn into Dorian-Thompson-Gray, if Myles Garret pummels Kenny Picket; Pittsburgh will be weeping on the bus ride back to the ‘Burgh--unable, of course, to enjoy the sheer joy of no longer being in Cleveland.


If the T.J Watt and the Steeler defense perform as well as Oscar Wild could write...Well, you get the idea...


Either way, there should be no way these teams get near the Total--the Under is our Premium Pick...


Steelers  20

Browns 15



As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...

NFL WEEK 11 POINT SPREADS & TOTALS

Cincinnati Bengals (+4) @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) 43.5 GW [U] 

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+10.5) 41.5  

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) @ Cleveland Browns (-4) 38.5 O/U

Chicago Bears (+7.5) @ Detroit Lions (-7.5) 46.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Green Bay Packers (+3) 44.5  US [O]

Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) @ Houston Texans (-4.5) 48.5 

Tennessee Titans (+6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) 40

Las Vegas Raiders (+10) @ Miami Dolphins (-10) 47.5 LW

New York Giants (+8.5) @ Washington Commanders (-8.5) 37.5  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10.5) @ San Fran 49ers (-10.5)  42.5

New York Jets (+6.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) 40.5 LW  [O]

Seattle Seahawks (-1) @ Los Angeles Rams (+1) 44.5

Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos (-1.5)  43.5  [O]

Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)  48.5 [O]



13 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

NFL 2023 SUPER BOWL

NFL 2023 – CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 CHAMPIONSHIP  TALLY =  0 - 2    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 9 =  .250 2023 OVERALL  = 137 - 141 - 6  =  .493 0/U  =  0 -2 

NFL 2023 CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 DIVISIONAL TALLY =  0 - 4    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 7  OVERALL  = 137 - 139 - 6 0/U  =  1 - 2  - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 77 - 61 - 1   .558 SPECIALS  0 - 4

NFL 2023 DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - PICKS ATS

NFL 2023 – SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 PLAYOFF TALLY =  3 - 3  OVERALL  137 - 135 - 6  .504 0/U  =  5 - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 76 - 59   .563 SPECIALS

Comments


bottom of page