2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK FOURTEEN
Week Thirteen Tally: 9 – 5 2021 Overall Tally: 92 – 102
Week Thirteen Totals 1 – 4 Cumulative Totals: 49 – 29
Weekly Specials 1 – 3 Cumulative Specials: 27 – 25
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 9 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 8
UPSET SPECIAL 10 – 3 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 5
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 76 – 54 PARLAYS 1
GAME OF THE WEEK (4 – 8)
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 54 GW [O]
Matchup stats say Buffalo is the better defensive team by a significant margin; Tampa is a slightly better offensive team.
Network pundits will tell you both teams have elite quarterbacks who don’t get sacked very often, and offenses that can win close games, shootouts, or turnover filled disasters.
Reality tells a different story: The Mateys are defending the Lombardi Trophy and the Bills are still learning how to win.
We thought last year’s 13-3 campaign and lessons learned in the 38-24 loss to the Arrowheads in the AFCCG demonstrated Buffalo had advanced in that usually difficult aspect of the NFL curriculum.
However, the Bills 2021 grade in that subject is barely above a “C”…
And it’s the perfect dynamic to explain why NFL football has become America’s game.
Almost every year personnel turnover due to attrition, injury, cap casualties, and most teams retaining 4-5 rookies, requires the entire team, each line and every unit on both sides of the ball to relearn what it takes to achieve the precision necessary for sustained excellence.
Look at what a two man changeover did to Pittsburgh’s offensive line, how Tom Brady signing with the Bucs earned Tampa Bay their second ring and forced Belichick to rely on an already reliable defense and win games essentially without even using a quarterback.
In the NBA, one elite player can turn an entire franchise’s fortunes around, as can an elite goalie in hockey.
In the NFL, so many moving parts require a secondary, or linemen, or a QB and his receivers not only to acclimate to each other, but also to the other units on their side of the ball.
Forget the stats, reality says in the last six weeks the Buff Bills could not win two consecutive games, blew out the struggling Saints and Jets; couldn’t win a shootout, at home, against Tennessee, or avoid getting shellacked by Indy in a turnover filled disaster, and lost two close games to the non-quarterbacked Patriots and the hot-mess Jaguars.
The Bills need to do a lot more homework.
Tampa Bay is the more complete, more seasoned group, and Brady is starting to see Rob Gronkowski open more every week they play together.
Don’t read me wrong; Buffalo can win this game, but Brady is more likely to spank them like a sadistic nun— Over the Number.
Buccaneers 33
Bills 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK (5 – 7)
J’Ville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans -8.5 43.5 LW [U]
Are the egos of most college coaches at elite power conference schools off some kind of sick chart, or is it just me?
I respect the success guys like Nick Saban, Chip Kelley, and Dabo Sweeney create, but when they get to the professional level, few college coaches except Jimmie Johnson have experienced success.
It’s a lot easier to deal with 18-22 year--olds who have little say in their fate under any college coach—especially when a coach is barely as mature as his players.
Which, unfortunately, brings us to Urban Meyer.
This guy lost me when he didn’t fly home with his team after the fourth straight loss to start the 2021 season. Yes, that’s right, if Meyer’s Jags had won that week, I wouldn’t be writing this column even if I made myself look this stupid:
Now, there are cleaner versions of this video if the guy fronting this one cheeses you out, but
I haven’t laughed so hard in years and I thought we can all use a good laugh.
***One more thing, this is not a moral bashing of Coach Meyer, even though I can’t fathom a wife that would blame social media and not publicly embarrass her husband, you know, to return the favor…I mean, my Italian hands—they never could handle alcohol—found themselves in similar positions many times…Uninvited…Probing…But if I was married and knew photos were being taken?
Fear of facing one of my three wives after being caught on candid camera fondling a strange woman’s ass kept me from doing a lot of stupid things.
I’m no Saint, but I’m no dumbass dog, either.***
Conversely, look at this guy:
· Mike Vrabel, former DE/OLB Steelers ’97, 3rd round draft pick…
· Joined the Dark Side with Darth Belichick in 2001and stayed eight years…
· Although his soul is probably doomed, he has made the playoffs as the Titans HC the last two years with a 2-2 playoff record.
Coach Vrabel looks exactly like what he is—a successful, professional football coach.
Here’s then latest headline about ol’ Urbie Meyer:
It takes character, discipline and mental fortitude to win NFL football games consistently.
The only way Tennessee loses this game by less than 10 points is if they turn the ball over five times.
Titans 27
Jaguars 15
UPSET SPECIAL (9 -3 )
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns -3 42.5 US [O]
We love Kevin Stefanski, and someday he will turn his Browns into championship contenders—but they are the Browns, and ridding a team of a 25-year losing stench does not come easy. Fortunately, Cleveland has had a bye week to prepare and the odds makers anointed them three point favorites at home.
We’ll take those three points…
Last week against arch-rival, Pittsburgh, Lamar Jackson and his motley murder of Crows scavenged a last minute 60 yard drive from a Pittsburgh defense that has been imitating road kill much of the year.
Head coach, John Harbaugh, citing his injury-decimated secondary—the whole team really—opted to go for the potential game-winning two-point conversion. Jackson and TE, Mark Andrews couldn’t execute the play-action pass with a little help from non-friend, T.J. Watt.
And another instant classic AFC North battle was over.
To me, Harbaugh made the wrong call—on the road, you keep your team playing as long as possible—but the coach’s reasoning was solid and, let me tell you, if I’m a Baltimore Raven, I love my coach more today than I did last Sunday. Harbaugh was telling his team, “We’ll get these guys at home—we’re still going to win the division…
His Harbaughness also knew there’s a lot of football yet to be played—in fact beating the Browns this Sunday brings the Magpies closer to winning the North than beating Pittsburgh last week.
In a matchup of two very inconsistent squads, we’re picking the Crows to spanksky Stefanski and the Browns, in Cleveland…
The Over is a big play here.
Ravens 31
Browns 23
The rest of my picks in bold italic…
NFL point spreads Week 14
Game Spread O/U
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minn Vikings -3.5 43.5 O/U
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs -10 48
New Orleans Saints @ New York Jet +5.5 433
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans -8.5 43.5 LW [U]
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns -3 42.5 US [O]
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panther -2.5 41
Dallas Cowboys @ Wash Football Team +4.5 48
Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans +8.5 40.5
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos -10.5 42
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 43
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals -1.5 49
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 54 GW [O]
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers -12.5 43 [O]
Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals -3 51 [U]