• Gary Porpora

NFL WEEK 12 DIRTY DOZEN WAGERS

NFL WEEK TWELVE


AFTER WEEK ELEVEN

Week Eleven Picks: 11 – 3 2019 Overall Tally: 85– 74 – 3 .535

Weekly Totals Picks: 2 – 4 Cumulative Totals: 31 – 34 – 1 .469

Weekly Specials 3– 1 Cumulative Specials: 21 – 22– 1 .488

GAME OF THE WEEK 5– 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 4

UPSET SPECIAL 5 – 5 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 4 – 7


Well, the Gairzo finally had a solid 11-3 week and got his percentage above the break even mark of 52.5 on his Weekly Picks…


His Totals numbers are still dreadful, and he still sits one game under the bookie’s Mendoza line of .500 on the Weekly Specials.


(I just realized why some pretentious people write in the third person; it frees that person from personal responsibility. For example, it is much easier to hear oneself type: “He is such an talentless idiot.” Than “I am such a talentless idiot. Takes some of the sting out—like the dentist tugging at your cheek while plunging a four-inch needle into your gums.)


A second benefit might be that his readers might not be paying attention or instinctively conclude the writer is talking about someone else.


No? I’ll be sure and set The Gairzo straight…


Seriously, to put my record picking the weekly slate of NFL games into perspective, check out the gang of eight at CBS.com:


https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/features/writers/expert/picks/


Only two of these clowns are above the Mendoza line—one by 1 game!!!


Of course, I may have just cursed myself for a nice 3-11 week.


Staring the cruel middle finger of Fate dead in the eye, here are our four Specials and Weekly Slate of NFL picks:


GAME OF THE WEEK


DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6 46 [u]


I can’t lose even if I pick the wrong team in this one. Long time inductees into my personal hate hall of fame, the joy I will feel to see Brady weeping or Jerrah’s plastic face melting will make the final score irrelevant.


The Cowboys have beaten no team with a respectable record, but looking at New England—neither have they. The putrid NFC East, their own perennially putrid AFC East, and, except for the Ravens—the putrid AFC North. The Pats have only beaten teams from the three worst divisions in football.


Ditto for the Cowboys.


These are the two most overrated teams in the NFL.


Simply, the Patriots have been the best bet in football at least since 2014—actually. As far back as 2003— as a home team or favorite. Dallas is dependable as a road team but mediocre as a road dog.


If the spread were 8 or 9, I might think about wasting my money on Dallas. Bucky Brooks over at CBS.com penned a good piece positing that Brady has fallen off the dreaded cliff and there’s no coming back—he may be right, but I’ll believe it when I see it.


Take the Under and give the points.


Patriots 27 Cowboys 17


LOCK OF THE WEEK


BALTIMORE RAVENS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS -3 49 [O]


I was going to make this puppy the Game of the Week and had Dallas visiting the Pats as my Lock, but I saw Tom Brady pouting all week because he’s been playing relatively awful football.


Poor Baby…


Anyway, it’s a gamble picking an East Coast team visiting California as a Lock, but I saw Lamar “Purple Haze” Jackson play all year—he makes Michael Vick look like a caterpillar.


As the Crows fly in L.A., everything depends on how brilliant Jackson looks compared to last week. The kid is trippin’—or making defenders wish they were—making moves Patrick Mahomes couldn’t make in the latest version of Madden. He’s embarrassing some of the premier tacklers in the league.


This video cracked me up because the Mario Brothers soundtrack over the legendary Kevin Harlan’s call can’t keep up with Jackson…


https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/lamar-jacksons-47-yard-touchdown-run-is-even-more-fun-with-this-video-game-track/ar-BBWyyrk


Baltimore’s defense is average at best, though they have tightened things up during their current six game-winning streak. But this isn’t the legendary Baltimore defense of 10-15 years ago, and it doesn’t have to be. John Harbaugh has to be downright giddy. His Magpies have won their first match-up against the injured, and now traumatized Steelers.


Jackson and company sent Tom Brady into depression a couple weeks back, and, last week, Harbaugh’s boys just shoved a bacon and double cheese sirloin 40-burger down Houston’s throat.


The reigning NFC champs have had an erratic year. At various times in various games Jarod

Goff and his offense has looked great—even if they’ve beaten exactly one team with a winning record, and lost to a Mason Rudolph led Steeler team.


Some trends:


· The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.

· The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as home underdogs.

· The Ravens are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games as favorite.

· The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games against an opponent in the NFC conference.

· The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.


This contest has the feel of ‘too good to be true.” It’s like Vegas is begging me to take the Crows.


Okay, I’m a sucker Baltimore scores 38 PPG on the road, rushes for 188 YPG and is on offense for over 33 minutes.


I’ll take my chances—exactly my mindset, far back into my rebel years, before I did my first hit of Purple Haze.


The Over is our call, too.


Ravens 32 Rams 21


UPSET SPECIAL


MIAMI DOLPHINSS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -11 44.5 [O]


I’ve been taking the Chalk and the Fish most of the year and haven’t done as badly as I should have. The Dolphins don’t have a lot of food in the pantry, but they’re surviving on grit and will and a little Fitzmagic—not nearly enough, but a little.


Brian Flores deserves credit; his players haven’t given up on themselves or him.

Meanwhile the Browns are still answering for Myles Garrett attempted murder of Pittsburgh’s Mason Rudolph.


Have you ever picked up a regulation professional football helmet—they weigh every bit of ten pounds. Garret t is lucky he struck Rudolph with the padded part of the weapon, or he might be under house arrest for manslaughter.


Miami might get another outright win; I’ll take the 11 points, anyway—and the Over.


Browns 23 Dolphins 22


O/U OF THE WEEK


DENVER BRONCOS @ BUFFALO BILLS -4.5 45.5 [U]


Two fairly mediocre offenses against two good defenses mean lots of sacks incomplete passes, and a turnover or two.


We’re really disappointed in our Totals tally so far this year—the last three years, it’s been our saving grace.


You have to give to the Bookies—they know what they’re doing


Take the Bills—even though the Broncos are a little better than their record –to Cover; the Under is a Premium Play.


Bills 23 Broncos 18


NFL Lines For Week 12 - NFL Line 11/21 - 11/25, 2019

Date&TimeFavoriteLineUnderdogTotal

11/21 8:20 ETAt Houston-3.5 [U]Indianapolis45.5

11/24 1:00 ETAt Cleveland US-11 [O]Miami44.5

11/24 1:00 ETAt Buffalo [O/U]-4 [U]Denver45.5

11/24 1:00 ETPittsburgh-6.5 [U]At Cincinnati39

11/24 1:00 ETAt Chicago-7NY Giants41.5

11/24 1:00 ETOakland-3At NY Jets48

11/24 1:00 ETAt New Orleans-9Carolina48

11/24 1:00 ETAt Atlanta-5Tampa Bay54

11/24 1:00 ETDetroit-3.5 [U]At Washington41

11/24 4:05 ETAt Tennessee-2.5Jacksonville41

11/24 4:25 ETAt New England GW-6 [U]Dallas45.5

11/24 8:20 ETAt San Francisco-3 [U]Green Bay45

11/24 1:00 ETAt Philadelphia-2Seattle49

Monday Night Football Line

11/24 8:15 ETBaltimore LW-3 [O]At LA Rams 49

Week 12 Byes: Arizona, Kansas City, LA Chargers, Minnesota

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