NFL WEEK 11 PICKS ATS
NFL WEEK TEN 2021
2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK TEN
Week Ten Tally: 6 – 8 2021 Overall Tally: 72 – 78
Week Ten Totals 3 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 36 – 22
Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 24 – 16
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 5
UPSET SPECIAL 8 – 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 7 – 3
PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 60 – 38 PARLAYS 1 – 3
GAME OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 56.5 GW [O]
What’s wrong with the Chiefs?
Pundits like people to think the question requires in depth thinking.
If I can figure it out does it really require in depth thinking?
Most fans would nod in agreement if someone says, “KC is tough to beat in Arrowhead; their crowd is the league’s loudest…
I’m not sure that’s the case…The crowd? No doubt, the loudest—but KC is eminently beatable at Arrowhead.
Let’s look at some trends, and see if my intuition matches reality.
Since 2013, when Andy Reid took the Chiefs helm:
· KC is a dreadful 34-40-2 as an ATS home team—.460 win Pct….19th in the NFL
· Kansas City won 53% of its games as a Favorite—6th in NFL.
· As a Home Favorite they drop to .456…
· .472 win percentage in non-conference game
The mystique or value the fans at Arrowhead provide their team is a myth.
However, we still must answer what’s wrong with these Chiefs who have been to the last two Super Bowls.
The one redeeming stat is the Chiefs league leading success on third down coming it a tic above 53% for the year. That means the reason the Arrowheads are mediocre can’t be put on Andy Reid’s play calling, although, in the last few games defenses have adjusted to Reid’s screen game and we haven’t seen Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce rumble forty yards after a four yard pass.
Besides the opposing coaches out dueling Andy Reid, I don’t think Mahomes has recovered fully from his ankle injury—and, oh yeah the Chiefs offensive line has bitten the injury bug and it isn’t a deeply talented unit.
With all that said, the Chiefs have the offensive talent to get hot in January, and don’t be surprised if Dallas isn’t playing them in the last game of the year.
That said, giving 2.5 points to a seriously ascending Dallas team is a high value pick for the Underdog--and I'll take it.
Since 2013, the Cowboys are:
· 38-30-1 == .559 on the Road…
· 16-14-1 == .533 a Road Favorite…
· 19-14-1 == .576 against the AFC..
Yep, this puppy has the look of a potential Super Bowl matchup—as a Steelers fan, I can’t tell you how difficult it is to write that sentence..
I’m loving the Cowboys defense, though, led by Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs.
We're calling the Over.
Nearly every trend and stat screams DALLAS! I think this will be the launchpad game Jerrah and the ‘Boys have been portending since 1997.
God help us all.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Houston @ Tennessee -10 44.5 LW [U]
Go ahead—look at the Week 11 slate of games.
Show me a Lock of the Week…
I honestly forgot to designate TNF’s yawner as the LOW.
What about the Jets? Dude, the Jets?
I know Houston is coming off a bye—but Mike Vrabel’s Titans have played and beat the best the NFL has to offer.
And, I admit, none of them were pretty.
Who said hey have to be pretty?
I’ll lay the points and take the Under.
Cincinnati @ Las Vegas -1 50.5 US [U]
I don’t care what the Raiders players, coaches or management say.
What Henry Ruggs did, killing a woman and her dog while doing 150 mph on the Las Vegas strip, has to be punch in the gut. So far, the Raiders have said and done what should be said and done, but it takes a toll on the organization.
What makes a guy with millions and millions more in his future get behind the wheel of a sports car blind drunk instead of tapping his Iphone three times and getting an Uber?
You think Ruggs was drinking alone that night? You think a 6’4” 235 pounder in a three thousand dollar suit and gold ringing his neck doesn’t immediately attract attention?
You think the hot waitress serving Ruggs alcohol that evening—drinks made extra strong by a bartender who was texting everyone—“guess who I’m making drinks for”--you think that waitress, or bartender, didn’t fantasize about having that living breathing god in their bed?
You really think all the “ordinary” people who stopped Ruggs to talk or ask for selfies were there to connect to him on a human level? Or did they elbow each other hoping his pixie dust of fame and talent would find it’s way into their essence, transforming them into social media royalty other people cannot resist, who command immediate respect?
You think maybe when they woke up, checked their phones, and read the news, the metamorphosis they craved was no longer a fantasy, but had become a sick joke.
And they all fell back into their beds like Gregor Samsa.
Oh yeah…The Game….
Top to bottom Cincy has the younger, better roster. Derek Carr lost his best deep threat in Ruggs, he’s jus too inconsistent in game and game-to-game—that’s why I fade the Raiders almost every week.
Burrow and company are learning how to be mentally tough; the Raiders have to learn the hard way.
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks +1.5 47 O/U
The reason we picked this game from numerous candidates is because too many key players are out for Phoenix, and Seattle might be even be hurting more.
We know Kyler Murray has a high ankle sprain, Russell Wilson is still nursing a bruised thumb—a much more serious issue for a passer.
Where are the points coming from? James Connor will carry it all day, but he is only one guy.
Kyler Murray will come back strong—a sprained ankle is serious, but a thumb is more likely to be reinjured
Seattle will keep it close…These NFC West division games are often played to close to the vest, low scoring, and won or lost by a late field goal.
The rest of my picks in bold italic…
Thursday, Nov. 18
New England @ Atlanta +7 47 TNF [U]
Sunday, Nov. 21
TEAM SPREAD TOTAL
Indianapolis @ Buffalo -7 49.5 Washington @ Carolina -3.5 43 Baltimore @ Chicago +6 44.5 Detroit @ Cleveland -12.5 42.5 San Francisco @ Jacksonville +6.5 45 Green Bay @ Minnesota +1 47.5 Miami @ New York Jets +3.5 44.5 New Orleans @ Philadelphia -2.5 42.5 Houston @ Tennessee -10 44.5 LW [U] Cincinnati @ Las Vegas -1 50.5 US [U] Dallas @ Kansas City -2.5 56.5 GW [U] Arizona @ Seattle +1.5 47 O/U Pittsburgh @ Los Angeles Chargers -5 47.5 SNF [O]
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay -11 49.5 MNF [U]
Byes: Denver, Los Angeles Rams