NFL 2022 – WEEK ONE
As promised, I need to get a few non-NFL sports-related issues off my chest beginning with…
Brittney Griner
On so many levels the reaction to BG’s arrest for possessing a marijuana related vape substance in a Russian airport crystallizes all that is wrong with America.
First, the WNBA’s superstar and her clueless supporters decry the fact that poor Brittney has to go to Russia to ply her trade because the WNBA salaries are so disparate from the NBA's.
Let’s keep it real: If not for the consistent financial backing of the NBA, the WNBA would’ve gone bankrupt two years into their existence. The women’s league has lost and is losing 10M dollars a year.
The point about equal salaries for men and women in basketball is patently absurd and only makes proponents sound shrill.
Grinder made 227K last year as most top tier women in the sport make. Ask any teacher or firewomen, or plumber if they would swap salaries with Brit and her pals.
If your smart, you’re thinking, ‘Well Gairzo, no offense, but nobody wants to watch an ass cracked plumber or thick-calved teacher play basketball.
YES!!! Great point!!! You would be absolutely correct, as I would be when I responded by telling you nobody beyond the 8000 fans at WNBA games want to watch a basketball game—and pay the professional salaries of—two teams that would have trouble beating the play in squads for the men’s NCAA tourney.
Go here for reality as it applies to the WNBA:
Grinder’s supporters also bitch about her Russia troubles being racially based, i.e.… If she wasn’t Black she wouldn’t have been targeted.
STOP IT!!!
Seems all we can do in this country is wallow in contrived victimhood.
Nearly every professional/elite athlete in America, regardless of genitalia, has had their innate talent recognized and nurtured, if not coddled, since they were four years old. Most have used that reality to great advantage. (Who wouldn’t?)
Sorry, Brittz, you can’t on one hand say appreciate my talent, respect my status; give me all the perks, and fame, and money; but ignore me—a 6’ 9”, tatted from head to toe, wearing size 17 shoes, Black women—when I am processing through the airport controlled by a racist, psychopathic dictator…
You stashed the vape—the amount is irrelevant—because you thought you could get away with it. That’s the psychology we teach most elite athletes.
Griner’s decision to test Putin and his cutthroat regime was utterly, irredeemably, stupid; too much risk for so little a head buzz.
Griner needs to stop whining and take some responsibility for her mistake.
Don’t want to do the time? Don’t do the crime…
I will comment on other non-NFL topics when I feel the urge…
Now, let’s get to this week’s Specials...This year, in addition to my usual four Specials, I’ll call every Steelers game, Totals included a “Trifecta Parlay” when I see one I like… I’m also bumping up my units to 25.00…
GAME OF THE WEEK
Bills at Rams (-1); Bills -110, Rams -110; 52 GW [O]
Give the Bills credit; they walked into the champs house and herded Sean McVay and his boys to the edge of a steep cliff, then proceeded to have their way with the suddenly compliant Big Horns—like lonely Greek sheepherders enjoying their prettiest lambs….
Or something like that…
Any doubts about Josh Allen’s talent, or the Bills defense repeating last year’s excellence were answered before the 4th quarter began…
Los Angeles must use this loss to as a lesson-or it could be a longer year in La-La-Land than anyone imagined.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Giants @ Titans (-6.5); Giants +235, Titans -300; 44 LW [U]
New York is nursing a lot of injuries they can’ afford. This isn’t a deep team to begin with—and they’ve gone younger, replacing some quality players with unknowns.
Add to that ugly word portrait New York's penchant for slow starts –0-2, in the last five years, their recent 0-5 record in September, and the same results in their last seven road games and you wonder why this spread hasn’t ballooned to eight.
The good news is they hired Brian Daboll as head coach. The former Bills, OC, handed off play calling duty to former NFL QB, Mike Kafka, whose name we will mock mercilessly all year
Daboll will field a strong defense, but even a good defense won’t make 2022 a good year for Big Blue.
The Giants have fallen into the trap of expecting too much too soon from their HC hires.
They can look at Daboll’s record prior to his hire to prove the point:
· When Daboll OC’d in Miami and Cleveland his best offense ranked 20th in the NFL
· His first year in Buffalo Daboll’s offense ranked 30th, the year after that 23rd…
· Then, miracle of miracles, Josh Allen matures; within two years, the Bills have a top three offense under Daboll and he parlays that success into a HC gig.
The lesson is: When coaches have talent, they win, if not…
In Tennessee, Mike Vrabel traded for Ryan Tannehill who has helped the Titans to the playoffs three years running.
The loss of LB Harold Landry who dominated on defense for Tennessee will be hard to overcome for the 2022 campaign—but the more talented Titans should easily win this game.
Play the Under…
Titans 21
Giants 13
UPSET SPECIAL
Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cowboys; Bucs -135, Cowboys +115; 51.5 US [U]
I’m at odds with the NFL punditry on these two teams. I think Tom Brady might regret the decision to un-retire. Brady’s diet is beginning to take a toll on his well being. The last two times I’ve seen him on TV, the seven times Super Bowl champ looked gaunt and tired.
The twice-busted Cheater lost C Ryan Jensen who made the Matey’s line one of the best in the league. Jensen’s injury may be more serious than the docs thought; he could be out for the year. The line also lost both starting guards to free agency, (Alex Cappa), and retirement, (Ali Marpet).
Meanwhile Dallas continues to be a circus ring-mastered by Jerry Jones—but this Cowboys defense led by DROY, Micah Parsons, could be elite. Last year, the Dallas defense ranked 7th in scoring, 2nd in third down percentage, and 3rd in QBR.
We’re going with the home team here because they are one of the best prime time performers, Tampa, not so much:
· Dallas leads the league with 95 primetime wins
· Since 2016, Dak Prescott has 12 prime time victories
· Dallas is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 prime-time games.
· Tampa Bay is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 prime-time games.
Of course Dallas should be on top in this category as they get more night games scheduled than any other NFL team.
But…the Cowboys also don’t seem to mind being Home Dogs, as they are 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games as an underdog.
The ‘Boys are thin at receiver; Zeke Elliot is getting older…
Brady doesn’t have the Gronk or the OL he’s used to…
The defenses might dominate in this one—so we’ll take the Under.
Dallas wins outright.
Cowboys 22
Buccaneers 17
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons; Saints -180, Falcons +155; 42 O/U
DOG BITES
When we read stats like this, we are tempted to rethink our position on just about every game. Thanks to the crews at VSIN.com and Oddsshark.com for these trend lines:
· NFL Week 1 dogs are 53-39 ATS (58%) since 2016.
· Dogs who made the playoffs the previous season are 156-114 (58%)
· Primetime dogs are 60-42 ATS (59%) over the past two seasons.
· Week 1 home dogs in divisional games are 19-5 against the spread (79.2%) since 2009
· Over the past four seasons, road dogs are 334-268 ATS (56%) and dogs who made the playoffs the previous season are 156-114 ATS (58%).
· Short road dogs 6 or less are 156-98 (61%) over the past four seasons.
· Divisional dogs are 22-8 ATS (73%) since 2016
Trends are but one tool that handicappers use in their analyses, along with stats, consensus, and common sense. The above trend percentages are significant. You can’t dismiss the 79.2 win rate for home dogs in week one games.
Does that mean I’m wagering on the Home Dog Bears, Falcons or Vikings?
Uh …No…All three are playing established teams with excellent running games and defenses…
Sometimes you have to go with your gut…
The Saints are the superior team on both sides of the ball. I like what Arthur Smith is doing in Atlanta but doing it with Marcus Mariota at the offensive helm will be difficult.
New Orleans has a lot of offensive weapons, Atlanta needs many more—we’ll go with the Under.
Saints 31
Falcons 10
STILLER GAME ‘N ‘AT…
Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5); Steelers +200, Bengals -250; 45 [O]
Well, well, well looks like the foot is on the other shoe doesn’t it?…
The Cincy Bengals host a Steelers squad with one of the worst offensive lines in football, and a young defense that could be elite, but more likely will be inconsistent. Pittsburgh is thin at inside linebacker—Devin Bush has yet to recover from his shredded ACL—and will be starting a quarterback not named Big Ben for the first time in eighteen years.
The Striped Cats, meanwhile, came within a field goal of winning their first championship since the Snake seduced Eve.
As painful as it is to write, I don’t see that dynamic changing much in 2022
Don’t get me wrong, the Steelers have enough talent on both sides of the ball to beat any team in the league, but the simple truth is way to many variables have to fall Pittsburgh’s way for them to be a consistent, legit contender.
When your most pressing offensive issues are a bad OL and a new QB, does it matter how great your receivers, running back, or tight ends are?
In comparison, all Cincy has to do is maintain the status quo, but I’m looking for the Bengals to improve enough to return to the Super Bowl.
The wild card in the AFC North, and in this rivalry, is Mike Tomlin. He’s the best motivator in the business; his players will walk through fire for him, and the more fans, haters, or the media are down on his team, the more his team gives him…
Think about it, in 2019 Tomlin took a team quarterbacked by Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges to the playoffs. Last year with Ben Roethlisberger all but needing a walker to keep himself upright, the Steelers made the post-season.
Joe Burrow and his boys will try to run all over the league's worst rushing defense. Barring that, Burrow can make big plays with the NFL’s best receiving corp.
If Mitch Trubisky can avoid the gut wrenching mistake, Pittsburgh might be able to keep it close.
I wouldn’t bet on it.
We’re playing the Over.
Bengals 33
Steelers 13
As usual my pick are below in bold italics,
Thu, Sept. 8
Bills at Rams (+2.5 ); Bills -110, Rams -110; 52 GW [O]
Sunday, Sept 11
49ers (-6.5) @ Bears; 49ers -275, Bears +220; 42.5
Jaguars @ Commanders (-4); Jaguars +160, Commanders -190; 44.5
Steelers @ Bengals (-6.5); Steelers +200, Bengals -250; 45 [O]
Saints (-3.5) @ Falcons; Saints -180, Falcons +155; 42 O/U
Browns (-1) @ Panthers; Browns -120, Panthers +100; 42
Ravens (-4.5) @ Jets; Ravens -195, Jets +165; 45
Eagles (-4) @ Lions; Eagles -190, Lions +160; 46.5
Patriots @ Dolphins (-3); Patriots +135, Dolphins -155; 45
Colts (-7.5) @ Texans; Colts -380, Texans +290; 44.5
Giants @ Titans (-6.5); Giants +235, Titans -300; 44 LW [O]
Packers (-1.5) @ Vikings; Packers -120, Vikings +100; 49
Raiders @ Chargers (-4); Raiders +155, Chargers -180; 52
Chiefs (-3) @ Cardinals; Chiefs -150, Cardinals +130; 53
Buccaneers (-2.5) @ Cowboys; Bucs -135, Cowboys +115; 51.5 US [U]
Mon, Sept. 12
Broncos (-4) @ Seahawks; Broncos -190, Seahawks +160; 41 [O]