NFL 2025 WEEK TWELVE - PICKS ATS
- Gary Porpora
- Nov 23, 2025
- 6 min read
NFL 2025 WEEK ELEVEN = 8 - 5 - 2 2025 OVERALL. = 86 - 77 - 2
WEEKLY O/U = 5 - 2 O/U CUMULATIVE = 41 - 38
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 4 - 1 CUMULATIVE = 27 - 28
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 7 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 5 - 6 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 5
STEELERS/OTHER 4 - 7 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 69 - 65
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We had another good week , even with two pushes. Our record on all games, 86-77-2, is still better than the CBS experts found here: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/picks/experts/
...AND better than the great Vinnie Eyer at: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-picks-predictions-against-spread-week-12/555140416d088b095d920be9
We have typically made a move in our percentages after about halfway through any given season and are feeling good about our Week Twelve calls...
Let’s try to stack three successful weeks in a row...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 49.5. GW [U]
The Chiefs have been treading very unfamiliar, choppy waters throughout the 2025 campaign. They find themselves in 3rd place in the AFC West, three games behind the division leading Broncos.
Meanwhile, Indiana Jones and his Baby Horses, bring Jonathan Taylor, the league’s rushing leader, into Arrowhead, along with a stout, albeit not overwhelming defense.
We seriously considered changing our pick Kansas City’s way, but we love the Hook here, believing it’ll be a field goal game from start to finish.
KC will be desperate and dangerous--and their dynastic pedigree makes that a foreboding combination--but we think the Colts have the talent on both sides of the ball to keep this contest very close.
Chiefs win outright but don’t Cover--Under the 49.5 Total.
Chiefs 26
Colts 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys +3 51.5 O/U
This is one of those divisional games where we are supposed to ignore the records because the rivalry factor dulls the glaring differences between teams who face each other, usually in a network-featured rivalry game, twice a year.
We’re not so sure--and we base it on these factors:
From my completely anecdotal perspective, Dallas is the most overrated team in the NFL.
In my 17th year plying my handicapping “hobby,” I’ve noticed Dallas is consistently the team Vegas Sharks believe is better than they are--probably because the public shares that delusion.
The Bald Birds are best in the NFL when their offense gets into the RZ, (75%)--and second best on the road, (70%)
The ‘Boys rank 29th in defensive Red Zone TD scoring percentage--home and away...
Philly holds opposing QBs to the lowest Completion Percentage--56.60...
The Eagles give the ball away less and take it away more than Dallas...
Here’s a analysis of Saquon Barkley’s play as an Eagle:
Now 3-0 against the Cowboys in midnight green, the superstar running back has quietly-and maybe not so quietly-become the Eagles' good-luck charm in the rivalry that defines the NFC East. And on Sunday, as the division leaders head to Jerry World with a chance to sweep the season series and extend their lead atop the division, Barkley once again finds himself at the center of the moment.
Barkley has seen more of the Cowboys than almost any running back of his era. In 13 career games against Dallas, he averages an impressive 4.8 yards per carry-a number that says a lot about how comfortable he feels in this matchup. And now, even with a new jersey on his back, the fire hasn't faded.
Dallas stinks on defense; against an elite offensive line, running back, and secondary, that means their offense must be near-perfect.
We don’t think that will happen.
Philadelphia’s defense keeps Dak and the ‘Boys down and the Eagles win big in Big “D”--we’re calling the Under...
Eagles 27
Cowboys 23
UPSET SPECIAL
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 37.5 US []
Cleveland’s defense may not be elite, but it’s top 5-10 in several important categories--and better than the Vegas defense across the board.
The Raidas, as a 2 point Home Dog, was my expectation in this one. Both squads are trying to negotiate the pesky QB problem that must be solved to achieve success in today’s NFL.
I don’t think the Raiders have earned the right to be favored over anyone--and, given the QBs---Aidan O'Connnel starts for Vegas; rookie Sehdur Sanders for Clevelands--scoring will be a difficult proposition.
Take the Browns, the Chalk, and the Hook, and play the Under.
Browns 22
Raiders 15
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -6 42.5 O/U
Sometimes handicapping isn’t so difficult when the, game logs, stats, and history lay out a clear story.
In this NFC North tussle, the 4-6 Vikings have been troubled all year by inconsistency and injury. Starting QB, J.J. McCarthy, missed the 2024 campaign with a knee injury and suffered a high ankle sprain in the 2025 Week Two loss to the Falcons. He’s still trying to recover.
The offensive line is shaky, the Norsemen are the fourth worst NFL team when it comes to time of possession; the defense can’t get a breather.
The Packers have overcome their share of injuries, and they’ve been in every one of their ten games. Six have been one-score affairs and the remaining four were decided by ten points or less.
Minnesota’s HC, Kevin O’Connel, has had some success guiding his guys to a more successful culture--the Vikings can beat anybody.
Not today...
Matt LeFleur’s superb play calling only enhances the talent difference of these hated division rivals.
The Packers have the deeper roster, more overall top-line talent. and, on this Sunday, will Cover --Under the Total.
Packers 23
Vikings 16
STEELERS GAME
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears -3. 46.5 [U]
Here’s what ESPN’s is reporting on A-A-Ron Rodger status for tomorrow’s game in Chicago:
According to a report by ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is pushing to play on Sunday against the Chicago Bears but the team is dropping no hints about his status for Sunday's game. Rodgers is trying to work his way back from a wrist injury he suffered in last week's win over the Cincinnati and heads into the game listed as questionable on the injury report.
If head coach Mike Tomlin knows who is starting at quarterback this week, he's not dropping hints to anyone who communicates with Schefter. The team is most likely going to make Rodgers a true gametime decision, see how Rodgers does in pregame and determine if it will be him or Mason Rudolph getting the start.
NFL fans know exactly why Rodgers is itching to play the Bears; he owns them.
He. Owns. Them.
This match-up gives us two very similarly talented teams with polar opposite QB situations. Chicago has a Top-3-5 running game but the Steelers seemed to have found answers to stuffing the run.
For much of the year, Pittsburgh has been hanging on to a rollercoaster defense that holds the dominating Jonathan Taylor under 40 yards one week and the Bolts under 75 the next--then corkscrews around and surrenders 111 against Cincy last week..
We think the game plan should be--stifle the already weak Bear’s running game and make Caleb Williams beat you. Although the former USC Trojan has all the tools to be great, the youngster hasn’t shown he’s ready to do it on a consistently effective basis--and the Steelers have shown growth and cohesiion in their secondary.
If Rodgers plays, it’s an easy call, and we’ll make it: take the 3-Points, Pittsburgh, and the Under.
If Mason Rudolph starts, the Steelers will still Cover.
Steelers 23
Bears 20
As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week.)
NFL WEEK 12 ODDS OVER/UNDERS (POINT TOTALS)
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans +6 43.5 [U]
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens -14 44.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears -3. 46.5 [U]
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals +7 50.5
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions -11.5. 49.5
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -6 41.5 O/U
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 49.5. GW [U]
Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans +13.5 42.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Arizona Cardinals +2.5 47.5
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 37.5 US [U]
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys +3 51.5 LW [U].
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints +2.5 40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams -6.5 49.5 [O]
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers -6 47.5 [U]
The Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins and Washington Commanders are off this week.
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