NFL 2023 - WEEK EIGHT
NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK SEVEN - 2023 = 5 -8
WEEKLY OVERALL = 51 – 53 - 2
0/U = 3 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE 27 - 22 .551
SPECIALS 3 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 16 - 12 .571
GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 2
UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 5 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 - 2
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 43 -34 .558
THE STEELERS
Jaguars (-2) @ Steelers Jaguars -125; Steelers +105 42 [U]
This is perhaps the strangest rival the Steelers have. Every game with Jax has a weird feel to it and this one is no different,
The stats say the Jags have a much better offense and both teams thrive on turnovers.
Trevor Lawrence is nursing a knee and T.J. Watt has to see that as good news. One interesting stat: the Jags are the second worst team in the league giving up almost 274 YPG through the air, partly because they are third worse in Sack %
That means Kenny Pickett should be able to hit for a couple of long bombs.
As an Underdog--as a Home Dog--as a home team the Steelers are the NFL’s best since Mike Tomlin took over.
That’s all I got on this game--it’s probably going to end with a strange twist.
Here are some very relevant trends to ponder:
PITTSBURGH is 86-56 UNDER the total (60.6%) since 2015
PITTSBURGH is 28-13 ATS (68.3%) as an underdog since 2018
JACKSONVILLE is 14-23 ATS (37.8%) as a favorite since 2018
JACKSONVILLE is 25-17 Under the total (59.5%) since 2021
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
Jacksonville is 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games against Pittsburgh.
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against Pittsburgh.
Jacksonville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh.
We’re going with the Home Dog Steelers and an improving Kenny Pickett to Upset the Spotted Cats in Pittsburgh.
Play the Under.
Steelers 21
Jaguars 19
GAME OF THE WEEk
Bengals @ 49ers (-5.5) Bengals +195; 49ers -258 45.5 GW [O]
We knew it had to happen, and quite frankly we’re surprised it took this long...Brock Purdy is human He and his fellow Prospectors finally came up with nothing but mud and pebbles during their foray to the Twin Cities last Monday night.
SF -5.5 was the Tuesday morning line when Brock Purdy was in the concussion protocol; I just learned he has been cleared to play. I expect the Spread to increase at least a full point.
It doesn’t matter. Its a hunch pick, anyway. Bengals fans have been waiting all year for Joe Burrow to return form from his calf strain and according to Burrow he feels better than he has all year.
San Fran is still missing Deebo Samuels and LT Trent Williams and their absence makes a difference in the field.
Yet, on paper this is a mismatch of epic proportions; the public, the Sharps, and the money is going on the Miners--it doesn’t look good for the Striped Cats...
...That’s why I’m taking the points and wouldn’t be surprised if the Bengals won outright.
They’re coming off the bye, Burrow had two weeks to recover and returning LT, Orlando Brown Jr., should give Burrow an extra second or two to find an open receiver--not to mention help kickstart a dormant running game.
We think Cincy will make it an uncomfortable afternoon for the 49ers who would be very human to question whether the headlines they been reading all year were accurate.
Niners win; Cincy Covers--We’re calling the Over..
49ers 26
Dolphins 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Ravens (-8.5) @ Cardinals Ravens -395; Cardinals +310 44 LW [U]
The 8.5 seems a bit high for this match up, but the Ravens do what they seem to do every year--endure a flood of injuries during camp and extending into September; survive the obligatory bad loss(es)--this year to Pittsburgh and Indy--hit their stride in late October, then end up being a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Arizona’s inexplicable 28-16 mauling of Dallas in the desert is the only bright spot in a dreadful year that has unfolded without Kyler Murray on the field. But let’s also acknowledge the brutal gauntlet that is Arizona’s schedule: as of Week Eight, the Commandos are the only team on the Cardinal’s slate that didn’t make the 2022 post season.
The Redbirds have been competitive all year. If nothing else, Josh, Dobbs has cemented a role as a legitimate back-up QB--and James Connor was more important to Arizona’s offense than anyone thought..
The Cardinals will show up and compete well, but the Magpies are returning a lot of talent from injury. Baltimore wins going away--Under the Number.
Ravens 27
Cardinals 15
UPSET SPECIAL
Vikings @ Packers (-1.5) Vikings -102; Packers -118 41.5 US [O]
The suddenly consistently reliable Vikings are a far better football team than the Packers. I can’t figure out this line.
Could be because Kirk Cousins is historically inconsistent at times, and a lot of bettors see it as a good reason to fade the Norsemen, coming off a huge upset against the Niners, then having to travel to a bitter division rival as a Pickem + Underdog. We caught the line on Tuesday and it has since flipped to the home team Packers--so we’re taking the value of the early line.
This is not the same Packers we’ve been used to seeing--but they’ll be getting a ton of talent back from injuries--according to one injury report--(too many coaches play games with injuries so there is different projections as to who might be returning.)
Some trends:
The Packers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games played in October.
The UNDER is 5-0 in the Vikings’ last five games and 3-1 in the Packers’ last four games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference North division.
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in October.
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games against Minnesota.
Green Bay is 14-6 SU in their last 20 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference North division.
Green Bay is 0-6 SU in their last 6 games played in October.
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 8.
THE PICK
Bottom line, this is an NFC North rivals that will play as a close game because neither team rushes the ball well, Jordan Love is aching from growing pains, and the Vikings seem to be jelling.
Minnesota’s four losses have been to elite and respectable teams--all one score losses. The Pack has lost three one score games against the Raidas, Denver, and the Falcons--bad football teams--their only “quality loss” was a 34-20 shellacking by the Lions.
Minny and the Over...
Vikings 24
Packers 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Texans (-3) @ Panthers Texans -148; Panthers +124 42.5 O/U
The Carolinas give up almost four TDs a game, but we have to wonder if the Texans can exploit that weakness. Houston rookie QB, CJ Stroud has shown maturity and makes good decisions. Stroud is a very respectable 6th, gaining 7.2 YPP, and 258.5 YPG, yet he only completes 59.81% of his passes.
On the ground, the Texans average a paltry 3.2 YPR and average only 88 YPG rushing.
The offensive grass is not painted greener on the Panther sideline. First overall pick, Bryce Young, hasn’t broken the question bubble a lot of scouts and punjabs put him in: he’s a short guy who can run--but, at barely 200 pounds, can he withstand the ferocity of an 18 game NFL season?
Carolina averages only 10 more YPG rushing, and is compelled to lean on Young to throw the ball more than any other QB in football. Unfortunately, Young gains only 4.9 YPP, (31) and a couple ticks under 200 YPG.
All of the above screams a low scoring, defensive game.
The Under is a smart call for this contest.
Texans 23
Panthers 19
As usual. All my ATS and Totals pick is below in bold italics...
Date Spread Moneyline Over Under
THURSDAY, Oct. 26
Buccaneers @ Bills (-7.5) Buccaneers +280; Bills -355 41.5
SUNDAY Oct 29
Jets (-3) @ Giants Jets -155; Giants +130 36
Eagles (-6.5) @ Commanders Eagles -270; Commanders +210 46
Patriots @ Dolphins (-9.5) Patriots +380; Dolphins -500 47
Jaguars (-2) @ Steelers Jaguars -125; Steelers +105 42 [U]
Texans (-3) @ Panthers Texans -148; Panthers +124 42.5 O/U
Chiefs (-7) @ Broncos Chiefs -375; Broncos +295 46.5
Falcons (-2.5) @ Titans Falcons -118; Titans -102 37
Saints @ Colts (-1.5) Saints +102; Colts -122 43.5
Rams @ Cowboys (-6.5) Rams+230; Cowboys -285 45
Vikings @ Packers (-1) Vikings -102; Packers -118 42 US [O]
Browns @ Seahawks (-2.5) Browns +102; Seahawks -155 40
Ravens (-8.5) @ Cardinals Ravens -395; Cardinals +310 44 LW [U]
Bengals @ 49ers (-5.5) Bengals +195; 49ers -258 45.5 GW [O]
Chiefs (-7) @ Broncos Chiefs -375; Broncos +295 46.5
Bears @ Chargers (-8.5) Bears +320; Chargers -410 46.5 [U]
Raiders @ Lions (-8) Raiders +285; Lions -360 44.5 [U]