WEEK SEVENTEEN
NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK SIXTEEN = 8 - 8
WEEKLY OVERALL = 115 – 119 - 6 .491
0/U = 3 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE 61 - 54 .530
SPECIALS 3 - 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 35 - 27 - 2 .565
GAME OF THE WEEK 9 – 6 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 9 – 6 - 1
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 12 O/U OF THE WEEK 13 - 3
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 96 - 81 - 2 .542
The above tally is up-to-date and accurate. Last three weeks your humble prognosticator was a laughable 10-28 which just killed our percentages across the board.
Overall, we’re struggling trying to reach the 52.4 % breakeven number, especially in the last two weeks of the 17 game schedule. The reasons are, besides the normal obstacles of trying to figure out the value picks, Specials, and Totals, we must now, determine who may/may not play harder to sneak into the playoffs or move up in the April ‘24 draft. or what team has clinched the post season and may/may not bring everything they have to these last two games.
We will be sticking to the games where one or both squads are equally invested in victory.
GAME OF THE WEEK
Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5) Dolphins +145; Ravens-175 47 GW [O]
No doubt Baltimore and Miami have great incentive--a first round bye--to win this game.
Go Here:
Last week’s two point home win against an equally overrated Dallas squad was the Dolphins only win against a team with a winning record! The Fish went down to every quality team they’ve faced; The Bills and Eagles trounced them and they lost by a touchdown to the Chiefs. They also lost to Tennessee by one.
Meanwhile in Baltimore...The Crows play in the league’s toughest division. Their losses to Pittsburgh and Cleveland, AFC North rivals, are about average for any given year, regardless of records.
In every aspect of the game the Ravens are equal or better than Miami--their defense is far superior, The Magpies have a HOF kicker, in Justin Tucker, and a one time MVP--looking for his second such award--in Lamar Jackson, and the Ravens have almost everyone healthy.
The Dolphins only hopes are to exploit an uncharacteristically pedestrian Baltimore run defense, and, on defense, live up to their number one sack percentage and hound Jackson all day.
I’m betting they cant do either.
Remember, the Crows absolutely crushed the 49ers last week...That, along with more big game experience, better QB, coach, defense, and turnover margin, in my book, gives Baltimore a decisive edge.
Over the Total...
Ravens 34
Dolphins 23
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Saints @ Buccaneers (-2.5) Saints +120; Buccaneers -142 42 LW [O]
We thought Derek Carr was overrated when experts thought he was underrated...Or, something like that.
We also believed Baker Mayfield--in the right system with decent talent on offense--could be a winning, playoff QB.
The Mateys are playing for the AFC South title.
The Saints are playing for next year...
Buccaneers 27
Saints 17
UPSET SPECIAL
Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5) Chargers +154; Broncos -185 37 US [O]
Last week we thought the Bolts +12.5 was way too much against an inconsistent Buffalo team--and somehow I was right as they lost by just two on a late field goal.
We based our winning pick on the Zappers coaching falling far short of their talent. This week we believe the same thing. We just can’t fathom these Chargers not being able to handle a Bronco team that just benched Russell Wilson--albeit for explicit contract/money reasons--for Jarret Stidham...
Jarret Stidham...
We’re going with the Bolts and the Over...
Chargers 26
Broncos 20
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Patriots @ Bills (-13.5) Patriots +550; Bills -800 40 O/U
There’s no way on God’s climate changed earth I’m giving Belichick’s boys 13.5 points against a division rival.
Cheating aside, Belichick is a proud guy--he and his team will be ready.
I’m calling the Over...
Bills 23
Patriots 19
Per usual my complete slate of pics is below in bold italics...
NFL WEEK 17 ODDS & BETTING LINES
Spread Moneyline Over Under Thurs,
Jets @ Browns (-7) Jets +275; Browns -345 35 [O]
Lions @ Cowboys (-5.5) Lions +200; Cowboys -245 52 [U]
Titans @ Texans (-5.5) Titans +170; Texans -205 44
Rams (-5.5) @ Giants Rams -245; Giants +200 43
Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5) Dolphins +145; Ravens-175 47 GW [O]
Patriots @ Bills (-13.5) Patriots +550; Bills -800 40 O/U
49ers (-12.5) @ Commanders 49ers -750; Commanders +525 50
Saints @ Buccaneers (-2.5) Saints +120; Buccaneers -142 42 LW [O]
Panthers @ Jaguars (-6) Panthers +205; Jaguars -250 38
Falcons @ Bears (-2.5) Falcons +124; Bears -148 38
Raiders @ Colts (-3.5) Raiders +154; Colts -185 42.5
Cardinals @ Eagles (-12) Cardinals +470; Eagles -650 48.5
Steelers @ Seahawks (-3.5) Steelers +150; Seahawks -180 41
Bengals @ Chiefs (-6.5) Bengals +260; Chiefs -325 44.5 [U]
Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5) Chargers +154; Broncos -185 37 US [O]
Packers @ Vikings (-1) Packers -105; Vikings -115 43.5 [O]
Odds via DraftKings