NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK FOURTEEN = 5 - 10
WEEKLY OVERALL = 102 – 101 - 5
0/U = 4 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE 54 - 45 .543
SPECIALS 2 -2 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 32 - 22 - 2 .600
GAME OF THE WEEK 8 – 5 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 8 – 5 - 1
UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 10 O/U OF THE WEEK 12 - 2
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 86 - 67 - 2 .563
The above tally is up to date and accurate--we obviously need a great week to offset last week’s clusterf@#k of a 5-10 performance--Yikes!!!
SATURDAY 11.16.23
Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) 39.5 [U]
The difference in this match-up is the performances to date of the Norsemen’s Nick Mullens--taking over for a fading Josh Dobbs, who took over for the Kirk Cousins now on IR--and Cincy’s Jake Browning, replacing Joe Burrow.
Browning, has made some fast history: through his first three starts has the highest completion percentage in NFL history.
Too many NFL head coaches are too quick to pull the trigger on back-up QBs. I think the Vikings have a better chance winning with Dobbs, but nobody is paying me 7M to make that call.
The Bengals at home are the value pick here. Nick Mullins will face heavy pressure from the Bengals defense. We’re calling the Under.
Bengals 24
Vikings 13
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) 42.5 [U]
Unlike some whack job Pittsburgh fans who believe the Black & Gold “Should beat” every team they play, I have to take it week by week.
This has been a troubled year for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin has to be as concerned as anyone about the lack of passion and focus in Pittsburgh’s two most recent losses to the struggling Cardinals and Patriots.
Those two consecutive embarrassments are the low point in Tomlin’s 17 year tenure, and could be the beginning of the coach’s swan song.
I’m just not ready to dismiss his history and record of success.
Here are some trends under Tomlin:
Pittsburgh is 55-3-5 ATS as an Underdog.
Steelers are 12-4 straight-up and 10-6 ATS in domes.
Under new head coach Sean Steichen, the Colts have been through the QB wringer like Pittsburgh, and Gardner Minshew seems to have hit a productive stride--but the Steelers Mitchell Trubisky is coming into his third week and should be more comfortable with his vastly underachieving receiving corp.
It won't be easy; the Horseshoes rank third in sacking opposing QBs.
This one feels like a low scoring field goal game. I’ll go with the Steelers and the Under.
Steelers 23
Colts 17
Denver Broncos (+4) @ Detroit Lions (-4) 46.5 [O]
The matchup stats make this a heavy lean to the Jungle Kings, but I’m a Russel Wilson and Sean Payton fan and Denver defense is better than their stats let on.
We’ll take the Nags, the Points, and the Over...
Detroit 24
Denver 23
***No analysis will be forthcoming for the Sunday or Monday games...
The Steelers game is tomorrow, my boys are here for my birthday week-end. Odds are we will be drinking heavily, grilling prime cut rib-eyes, and celebrating my very recent professional success courtesy of the Berlin Film and Screenplay Festival.***
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3) 31 [U]
Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) 39.5 [U]
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) 42.5 [U]
Denver Broncos (+4) @ Detroit Lions (-4) 46.5 [O]
Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Carolina Panthers (+3) 35
Chicago Bears (+3) @ Cleveland Browns (-3) 38
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5) 42.5 LW [O]
New York Jets (+12) @ Miami Dolphins (-12) 40.5
New York Giants (+6) @ New Orleans Saints (-6) 36.5
Houston Texans (+2) @ Tennessee Titans (-2) 37.5 O/U
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) @ New England Patriots (+9.5) 37.5
San Fran 49ers (-13.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (+13.5) 47.5 US [U]
Washington Commanders (+6.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) 48.5
Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) @ Buffalo Bills (-1.5) 48.5 GW [O]
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) 43.5 [O]
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks (+4) 47 [U]