NFL 2023 TNF - WEEK ELEVEN
Date: Thursday, November 16
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)
GAME OF THE WEEK
Cincinnati Bengals (+4) @ Baltimore Ravens (-4) 43.5 GW
Cincinnati has been inconsistent all year, but Joe Burrow doesn’t fear anyone and has a post season win in his pocket versus the Crows just last season--but his defense is playing like it can’t beat anyone. Last week, Houston's rookie phenom C.J. Stroud passed for over 350 yards against Cinc's defense. Of course all of us should maybe start believing such games can be attributed more to the quality of Demeco Ryan’s Shitkickers and less of an indictment of the Bengals or anyone else’s defense.
A look at the matchup stats screams Baltimore is the much better team with the league’s best defense and a top five offense--and they have most of their injured stars back in action. In comparison, the On Paper Tigers are mediocre on both sides of the ball, they give up 1.9 More YPP than the Magpies, and gain .8 YPP less--a hugely important differential
Here are two juicy trends from Zachary Cohen at vsin.com:
There are two interesting trends in this game, with one working against the Bengals and the other in their favor. Cincinnati is 1-23 straight-up in evening road games over the last 25 years, and the team carries a 13-game losing streak in this situation. However, the Bengals also happen to be 8-0 against the spread as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last three seasons. And they have actually won those games by an average of 7.0 points per game. Burrow also happens to be historically good as an underdog, in general.
If Burrow is better than Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, the gap is pretty narrow, and Joe Cool can’t change a game with his legs the way Jackson can--although Cincy has put up 26+ PPG in its last five outings.
John Harbaugh is one of the league’s best coaches; the Magpies are playing at home and haven’t scored less than 31 points in their last four games. Both teams are reeling from bad losses last week--and both need this win to take charge in the AFC North.
We’re going with the better coach, the far superior defense--and the Over.