NFL 2022 WEEK TWELVE – TALLY SHEET
WEEK TWELVE = 8 – 6 – 2 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 90 – 85 – 5
WEEK TWELVE 0/U = 5 – 3 O/U CUMULATIVE 42 – 39 – 1 .519
SPECIALS 2 – 2 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 29 – 18 – 1 .617
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 6 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 11 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 4
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 71 – 57 – 1 .559
WEEK THIRTEEN – ATS
GAME OF THE WEEK 5 – 7
Miami Dolphins (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers 46.5 GW [O}
This is a potential Super Bowl matchup—or a lot of experts see it that way. Your humble prognosticator does not.
I think Miami is over valued. We respect their season opening Tri-Fecta of wins in very close games. The Week One triumph over the Patriots was a division win, and exposed New England as a very average team in a good division.. The next two wins against the Crows and Buffalo were decided on the last series—still, the Dolphins prevailed and the coaching staff earned a lot of cred in the process.
The following three losses to a floundering Bengals squad, a Jets club still searching for their identity, and a Vikings team on Miami’s home field were troublesome.
When we examine the five-game winning streak that has the NFL punditry crowning Dolphins HC, Mike McDaniel, the next Paul Brown, we’re shaking our heads:
· Pittsburgh…Detroit…Chicago…Cleveland…Houston…
· Combined record = 16-39-1
Interesting fact---San Fran might be the more overrated team—the combined record of their eleven opponents = 50-76 - .397.
Of the 22 games played by the Miners and the Fish, only eight were played against teams with a winning record. For context, Dallas has played seven winning teams.
Yes this is the NFL; a win is a win…but the Super Bowl, as usual will host two teams that hit their stride late in the year—this year that may very well be Dallas and/or Cincy.
Parity rules in a league designed to produce 32 8-8 teams. When we have quality teams like Miami and the Niners on the docket, we invariably bet on the team with the better coach quarterback and defense.
Kyle Shanahan, right now, is better than Mike McDaniel, although the former 49er assistant is no slouch—he has changed the culture and brought stability to a Dolphins franchise that was losing relevance.
Tua ekes out the nod over Jimmie Handsome, but Garopollo is a legit Top 8 QB and deserves more respect than his front office gives him.
It comes down to defense, and the Gold Miners strike the only pay dirt in that comparison. In the most important defensive stats it is not a close call. Miami’s rank of 9th in Rush YPG allowed is their only metric near the Top Ten—they are often below average everywhere else.
Any way we shake it San Francisco fields an elite defense; the best where it counts most, and Top Ten or better across the board.
Lay the -4 and bet on San Fran to cool off the Dolphin attack, just Over the Number.
49ers 26
Dolphins 19
LOCK OF THE WEEK 5-6-1
Denver Broncos (+8) @ Baltimore Ravens 39 LW [U]
Never has a QB experiment burned up the gridiron lab like Russell Wilson’s move to Denver has. It’s like he got ten years older all at once. My Grandma is more mobile than Wilson—and she’s been dead a really long time.
I love the Broncos defense, but they can be had in the ground game.
The Magpies are the NFL’s 2nd best in Turnover Margin and Takeaways; and it’s a safe bet Lamar Jackson would trounce Grandma or Russell Wilson in the 40.
I doubt the Broncos will score a touchdown—that means play the Under.
Ravens 26
Broncos 9
UPSET SPECIAL 11 – 1
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) @ Detroit Lions 51 US [O]
We have to be wrong on this Special pretty soon—but we are as confident in this pick as any of the previous twelve.
Last week against the Ravens Jacksonville QB, Trevor Lawrence threw for 321 yards and three TDs. He had a look in his eyes we had yet to see. He put some balls into windows that looked seriously closed.
Detroit’s defense is putrid on a good day—but their offense will score even against an improving and very resilient Jags defense. It won’t be enough.
Trevor Lawrence has his best day as a pro—way over the Total.
Jaguars 33
Lions 23
0VER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons 42.5 O/U
You gotta think Kenny Pickett is cursed and will throw a couple picks this week, because everybody and their sisters keeps reminding us how the former Pitt standout hasn’t thrown a pick in his last 100 pass attempts.
There’s two important metrics when evaluating an NFL rookie QB…
· Does he show significant improvement from game to game?
· Does he learn from mistakes?
You can see Pickett’s season long stat sheet here:
He answers both questions with a resounding “yes”…
· First four games = 2 TDs against 7 Picks
· Last four games = 1 TD against 1 pick…
· His Passer Rating has improved almost weekly…
Another thing: after watching KP at Pitt the last four seasons, I never realized how much of a gun he has for a throwing arm. Picket won’t conjure memories of Elway, Bradshaw or Marino---but he can make any throw an NFL QB has to make.
Let keep it real, though, Kenny Pickett has miles to go before he will reach even the comfortable mediocrity that has been the definition of Marcus Mariota’s career—his TD/INT ratio, career QB Rating, completion %, nearly every stat screams “league average.”
Atlanta has the NFL’s worst defensive Sack % and all but three teams allow a higher percentage of sacks. The Falcons rush defense is in the bottom third of the league, but the Birds of Prey run the ball to the tune of 160 YPG and rush the ball just below 57% of the time.
Atlanta and the Steelers are equally unbalanced—the Falcons lean on the run; Pittsburgh the pass, and the Steelers are Top Eight in TO Margin and Takeaways per game. They have three players who can create consistent chaos on defense.
The only obstacle preventing a clear Pittsburgh win is their atrocious kick-off return teams against one of the now all-time greats as a returner, Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson—if he has a good day, things could turn Pittsburgh ugly fast. Last week, the Colts embarrassed the Men of Steel, and their fans, in the return game.
· The Falcons are second only to Indy averaging 26.1 YPKR
· Pittsburgh has the second worst Touchback % in the entire league
· They give up 26 YPKR—4th worst in the league
Special teams coach, Danny Smith, better have his boys ready.
We think Kenny Pickett continues to make progress; T. J Watt returns to form, and Najee Harris finds bigger holes.
Pittsburgh Covers, barely Over the Total.
Steelers 23
Falcons 20
As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated:
WEEK THIRTEEN SPREADS AND TOTALS
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) @ New England Patriots 43.5 [U]
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons 42.5 O/U
Denver Broncos (+8) @ Baltimore Ravens 39 LW [U]
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears 43.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) @ Detroit Lions 51 US [O]
Cleveland Browns (-7) @ Houston Texans 46.5
New York Jets (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings 44.5
Washington Commanders (-2.5) @ New York Giants 40.5
Tennessee Titans (+5) @ Philadelphia Eagles 44.5
Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ Los Angeles Rams 41
Miami Dolphins (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers 46.5 GW [U}
Kansas City Chiefs (-2) @ Cincinnati Bengals 53 [O]
Los Angeles Chargers (PK) @ Las Vegas Raiders 50.5
Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Dallas Cowboys 43.5 [O]
New Orleans Saints (+4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40 [O]