• Gary Porpora

NFL 2021 WEEK TWELVE


2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK ELEVEN

Week Eleven Tally: 7 – 8 2021 Overall Tally: 79 – 86

Week Eleven Totals 7 – 0 Cumulative Totals: 43 – 22

Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 26 – 18

GAME OF THE WEEK 4 – 7 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 6

UPSET SPECIAL 9 – 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 8 – 3

PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 69 – 40 PARLAYS 1 – 3



GAME OF THE WEEK


Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) 44 GW [O]


Before we begin, I’m a Steelers fan. That’s why I stay away from Pittsburgh games in my Specials analyses—unless it’s the O/U of the Week—and seldom bet the game, unless I include them in one of my throw away Three-Dollar Parlays…So bet this one on your own…


I’ll try to give you a fair analysis…


In percentage terms, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin win 63.3% of their games as Road Dogs. Conversely, The Bengals under not-the-president-Zach Taylor are 4-6 as Home Favorites.


The AFC North is a Lot like the NFC West—and to a degree, like most divisional games—featuring games played close to the coach’s vest between teams with long histories, who play each other twice a season. Very often, the records don’t matter and games are decided by less than a touchdown.


In this one, Cincy is a lot healthier than their division rival; Big Ben’s ribs might not want to play—or his wrist—or his knee. But T.J. Watt is probable and he is the reason Pittsburgh could steal this baby.


The Striped Cats have the fourth worst Sack% on offense; the Steelers the 4th best Sack% as a defense. Also, the still green Joe Burrow is one of the leagues worst at protecting the ball, he’ averaging one pick a game—and that could cost him.


Let’s keep it real, though—the Bengals could do what the Bolts and the Bears and the Lions did: run the ball right down Pittsburgh’s throat.


Tomlin will put as many people in the box as he can and dare Burrow to beat a secondary welcoming back Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick.


Should be interesting.


The Bengals squeak out a win; The Steelers cover by the sweat of their chinny-chin-chin straps—barely Over the Number.


Bengals 24

Steelers 21


LOCK OF THE WEEK


Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ NY Giants (+3.5) 45.5 LW [U]



Yes, the same context applies in this divisional matchup as for the Pittsburgh/Cincy game. The difference lies in the fact an old Ben Roethlisberger can still out-gun a young gun like Joe Burrow; Daniel Jones couldn’t out-gun Yosemite Sam.


Let’s be fair, Saquon Barkley has missed too many games. WRs John Ross III, Kadarius Toney, and Sterling Shepard are all hobbled to various degrees, questionable at best—as are TEs, Kyle Rudolph and Kaden Smith.


Jones has practice squadders and 3rd stringers to point his gun at.


The Giants have 19 guys on IR. That has to be some kind of record.


The Bald Birds have won three of their last four and seem to have stopped stumbling over themselves while second year QB Jalen Hurts continues to grow into his position. Very quietly, Philly’s offense has become Top Ten in scoring, TDs per game, Red Zone TDs—and their ground game has become a legit Top Three enterprise.


Not only do we think the Eagles can stomp the G-Men this week, they could sneak into the

post season and with their running game, get hot, and make some noise.


Gang Green crushes Big Blue—Under the Total.


Eagles 29

Giants 10


UPSET SPECIAL


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (+3) 53 US [U]


Tom Brady’s success is not a mystery; he takes a sack on just under 3% of his pass attempts—and the Mateys pass the ball a blip over 67% of the time. That means the best pass blocking O-Line resides in Tampa Bay. It also means Tommy Boy throws a pick on just 1.85% of his throws.


Folks we always hold Brady to account for his documented cheating history—but we always give him his due for his consistency and excellence as a passer. I mean...those are some sick stats. Not only does Brady’s line protect him superbly, he has perfected his rhythm and release. The clock in his head is a Rolex.


Carson Wentz has it almost as good; he’s sacked only 4.77% of the time, 8th in the NFL, and throws a pick on only 1.11% of his throws—good for #2 in the league. The kid is, by far, the most improved QB in football. And HC Frank Reich is responsible.


He has made Wentz and the Colts one of the most disciplined teams in the league, evidenced by their second best ranking when it comes to penalties per play, per game, and penalty yards per game.


However, Indy’s secondary is aggressive, they collect a lot of laundry, ballooning the Colts yards per penalty to 9.2—the sixth worse mark in the NFL.


This might be the best game of Week 12. The Matey’s field the best rush defense; Indy will make things difficult for Brady. We’re playing the Under and calling for an outright Colts win.


Colts 28

Buccaneers 23


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Cleveland Browns (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) 47 O/U


Everyone is drinking the Baltimore Kool-Aid and this handicapper just doesn’t see it on the stat sheets or on the field.


Maybe I am looking in the wrong place.


Don’t get me wrong, John Harbaugh will always have the most punchable face in America, and he’ll always be a hell of a football coach. You have to give the former special teams guru credit for finding Justin Tucker, who is as good as there ever was or is at kicking a football.


Tucker has won a lot of games for the Magpies, but this Baltimore group doesn’t share their kicker’s focus, excellence or consistency. Any team that pastes a quality opponent like the Bolts, then follows that up with a dismal showing, at home, against an upstart Bengals team—a division rival—has problems.


But, let’s keep it surreal—with 16 guys on IR, FOUR CBs, three wide receivers, two defensive linemen, and WRs, and a quarterback in a pear tree all coming off significant injuries or still questionable, it is a bonafide miracle that this murder of figurative Crows are still flying high atop the AFC North.


Meanwhile, in Cleveland the Browns are still trying to establish their identity with a QB whose made more of a name for himself for living at his stadium than for doing any thing special in it with, you know, a football.


Which might be a more attainable goal with star tailback, Kareem Hunt, returning from a strained calf and WR Jarvis Landry cleared to play after a knee issue. Mayfield is hoping stud center, JC Tretter will be cleared to play the anchor on one of the league’s premier O-Lines—then Hunt and Nick Chubb can control the game on the ground.


We believed this was destined to be a low scoring contest, only if the stars cleared to play either can’t or won’t be at their best. With Jackson back for Baltimore, Hunt and Landry in a Browns uniform, we’ll buck the public and the Sharks and call the Over and a Browns Cover—but the Magpies will, find a way to win it in the end.


Ravens 27

Browns 24


The rest of my picks in bold italic…


Thursday, Nov. 24, 2021

NFL Week 12 point spreads

Chicago Bears (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions (+3.5) 41.5 [U]

Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) 51.5 [U]

Buffalo Bills (-4.5) @ New Orleans Saints (+4.5) 45 [O]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (+3) 53 US [U]

New York Jets (+2.5) @ Houston Texans (-2.5) 44.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ NY Giants (+3.5) 45.5 LW [U]

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) @ Miami Dolphins (+1.5) 42

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) @ New England Patriots (-5.5) 43.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) 44 GW [O]

Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2) 46

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos (+2.5) 47

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-1.5) 47

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) 47 O/U

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Washington Football Team (-1) [U]



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