NFL 2025 WEEK FIVE - PICKS ATS

NFL 2025 WEEK FOUR =  8 - 8    2025 OVERALL. =  34 - 30 

WEEKLY O/U  =  4 - 4     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  13 - 15  

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  0 - 5   CUMULATIVE  =  9 - 11

GAME OF THE WEEK    2 – 2       LOCK OF THE WEEK    3 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL     2 - 2              O/U OF THE WEEK    2 – 2

STEELERS  0 - 4   PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  22 - 26  

============================================

We managed to avoid a second losing week in a row, but the oddsmakers still took us for the Vig.  A lot of teams revealed themselves through the first four weeks of the season.  

Let’s get back on our feet with a successful Week Five...

GAME OF THE WEEK

Washington Commanders  @ Los Angeles Chargers  -2.5. 47.5.  GW  [O]

Jim Harbaugh’s teams on any level are known for responding well after after losses.  Week 5 may not be easy for the Bolts to forget losing to the Under Dog G-Men last week. The Bolts OL starting tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are injured--Slater’s out for the year.  Justin Herbert is likely to pay for their absence by taking hits from the Commanders pass rush...

Washington QB, Jayden Daniels, returns from the injured list but will be taking the field without standout receiver, Terry McLauren.

I’m looking for the two elite QBs to put their respective teams on their backs and give us an old-fashioned shootout.   Play the Over...

Chargers  32

Commmanders  27

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings vs Cleveland Browns  +3.5   36.5. LW  [U]

Great value for a solid Lock play. Cleveland is the #1 defense in the NFL but the Matchup stats tell the complete story:

MIN Off. Value/(rank)    CLE Def. Value/(rank) 

Points/Game 25.5 (#10) 25.5 (#24) Opp Points/Game 

Yards/Game 294.0 (#23) 222.5 (#1) Opp Yards/Game 

Points/Play 0.453 (#7) 0.466 (#26) Opp Points/Play 

Yards/Play 5.2 (#21) 4.1 (#1) Opp Yards/Play 

3D Conversion % 30.61% (#30) 44.83% (#28) Opp 3D Conv % 

4D Conversion % 66.67% (#11) 50.00% (#10) Opp 4D Conv % 

RZ Scoring % (TD) 61.54% (#16) 75.00% (#28) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD) 

TDs/Game 2.8 (#13) 3.0 (#24) Opp TDs/Game 

CLE Off. Value/(rank)    MIN Def Value/(rank) 

Points/Game 14.0 (#31) 20.0 (#9) Opp Points/Game 

Yards/Game 279.8 (#27) 281.8 (#6) Opp Yards/Game 

Points/Play 0.211 (#32) 0.346 (#11) Opp Points/Play 

Yards/Play 4.2 (#29) 4.9 (#10) Opp Yards/Play 

3D Conversion % 37.70% (#21) 33.33% (#5) Opp 3D Conv % 

4D Conversion % 55.56% (#20) 0.00% (#1) Opp 4D Conv %

RZ Scoring % (TD) 66.67% (#8) 46.15% (#6) Opp RZ Scoring % (TD)

TDs/Game 1.5 (#30) 2.0 (#6) Opp TDs/Game

Yes, defensively, Cleveland’s YPG and YPP stats are great, but they’re a woeful 28th in 3rd Down Conversions and RZ Touchdown %....26th in Points Per Play...24th in touchdowns Per game.

The Brown’s impressive win over Green Bay is sandwiched between 24 pt. blow-out losses to the Lions and Crows.  Last week they lost to a banged up Joe Burrow-less Cincy squad with a poor defense.

The Norsemen trounced Cincy 48-10 with Carson Wentz backing up for J.J. NcCarthy and his sprained ankle.

Cleveland’s overrated defense, and dreadful offense, isn’t our only reason for calling this Lock.  This one boils down to the Vikings staying in London the whole week, versus the Brownies arriving on Thursday...

...And having benched Joe Flacccxo in favor of a rookie quarterback...

Viking are a great value in this spot.  Lay the points--we only lean to the Under.

Vikings  27

Browns 8

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK  

Las Vegas Raiders  @ Indianapolis Colts  -6.5  48.5   O/U

Head Coach, Shane Steichen might be raising quite the Rag of Baby Horses led by rushing leader, Jonathan Taylor and the league’s personification of Lazarus, QB, Daniel Jones.  Both players welcome Steichen’s play calling, and the anything but elite Indy defense is holding it’s own.

That unit’s task will be infinitely easier this week; Raiders TE, Brock Bowers, and OL, Kolton Miller are out.  Vegas isn’t talented or deep enough to compensate for those big losses...But...

...Don’t discount the Raiders running back out of Boise State, Ashton Jeanty.   He can run right through even strong tacklers, and the Colts surrendered the most yards after missed tackles last year.

We like the Under, because the rushing game will be huge in this game.

Colts  27

Raiders 13

UPSET SPECIAL

Miami Dolphins  @ Carolina Panthers  +1.5   45.5   US   [U]

Two fairly bad NFL teams face off in Carolina...

We simply don’t see the Dolphins as having earned the right to be favored against even a pedestrian opponent like the Black Cats, especially after losing all-world WR, Tyreek Hill--Miami’s most dynamic player.

Bryce Young has found his feet in Charlotte and Miami’s Tua is one bad hit away from another concussion, so expect the Dolphins to continue featuring Devon Aichan out of the backfield.  The talented runner will keep the Fish in the game, but we think Young will score late for the outright win...We’re calling the Under...

Panthers  21

Dolphins 20

STRAIGHT UP PW

Detroit Lions  @ Cincinnati Bengals  +8.5   49.5. SUW   [U]

No Steelers game this week so we’ll handicap The Jungle Kings invading, well, the Jungle, and call it the Straight Up Pick of the Week.

Joe Burrow, out with a hand injury, has been replaced by Washington product, Jake Browning, whose initial luster has faded away like cheap paint--and the Bengals defense is as appealing as a tepid bowl of watery Cincinnati chili... 

Detroit should win in a romp--Under the Number...

Lions  37

Bengals 10

As usual, my picks are below in bold italics...(A Couple of the lines were settled on early in the week, i.e. Houston is now getting only 1.5 at most books due to Lamar Jacxkson’s injury...)

NFL WEEK  ODDS: POINT SPREADS & OVER/UNDERS 

San Francisco 49ers  @ Los Angeles Rams  -3.5.  47.5. [U]

Minnesota Vikings vs Cleveland Browns  +3.5   36.5. LW  [U]

Houston Texans  @ Baltimore Ravens  -6.5   43.5

Miami Dolphins  @ Carolina Panthers  +1.5   45.5   US  

Las Vegas Raiders  @ Indianapolis Colts  -6.5  48.5   O/U

New York Giants  @ New Orleans Saints  +1.5   41.5. 

Dallas Cowboys  @ New York Jets  +3   47.5

Denver Broncos  @ Philadelphia Eagles  -4.5  43.5

Tennesse Titans @ Arizona Cardinals  8.5  43.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  @ Seattle Seahawks  -3.  44.5 

Detroit Lions  @ Cincinnati Bengals  +8.5   49.5. SUW

Washington Commanders  @ Los Angeles Chargers  -2.5. 47.5.  GW  [O]

New England Patriots  @ Buffalo Bills  -8.5 50.5. [U]

Kansas City Chiefs  @ Jacksonville Jaguars +3.  45.5  [U]

The Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are off this week.