Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45.5 LW [U]
Another easy call for the Gairzo.
The Mateys finished 8-9 overall and 4-2 in one of the historically worst divisions in the NFL. They played six playoff teams, going 2-6 in those games
Tampa’s Week One 19-3 win at AT&T against Dallas represents their second largest point differential of the year; they won by 10 in Week Two versus New Orleans. They lost five games by 10 or more points, including Week Eighteen; with the NFC South title in hand they lost by 13 at Atlanta.
They never dominated anyone, but were crushed by every quality NFL team they faced, except two wins versus playoff teams—Dallas and Seattle.
Eleven of Tampa’s games were decided by 6 points or fewer. They went 5-6 in those games. The Mateys were a lousy football team against good teams and below average against bad teams.
They belong in the post-season as much as I deserve to host a radio talk show.
The Cowboys have more talent on a deeper roster, with DPOY candidate Micah Parsons; enjoy an NFL second best +0.6 in TO Margin per game—number one in taking the ball away—and a legitimate Top Ten defense.
Dallas’ weak link is Dak Prescott’s sub-par performance under center. His 15 interceptions lead the NFL—and with the 11th best Sack percentage Tampa can exploit the only weakness that might keep them in the game.
Thing is, Dallas pressures QBs better than any playoff team and fields the most skilled secondary in the game.
It will be a pleasure to see the cheatin’ heart of Tom Brady broken in pieces on his home field.
Lay the 2.5 points to the mangy Home Dog Bucks; it won’t be close—we’re calling the Under.