AFTER WEEK SEVEN
Week Seven Picks: 8 – 6 2019 Overall Tally: 52 – 52 – 2
Weekly Totals Picks: 5 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 21 – 21 - 1
Weekly Specials 3 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 12 – 15 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 4 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 – 4
GAME OF THE WEEK
GREEN BAY PACKER @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3 48 [O]
Statistical comparisons of these two clubs makes two things clear—they are two of the best teams in the NFL and their QBs are the reason why.
Aaron Rodgers is a legend. He destroyed Oakland with one hand last week and the arm attached to that hand was a willing accomplice.
If you watch Rodgers play, his release is as quick as a cobra strike—and he can bring it from any angle.
Meanwhile, in Kansas City, Patrick Maholmes is out for a month due to a dislocated knee cap. That has to be painful to KC fans and to Andy Reid, who achieved his 200th victory in last weeks rout of Denver. Matt Moore took over and threw for almost 120 yards, completing barely over half his passes.
Fans and pundits often don’t remember history. The new crop of RPO QBs like Maholmes and Lamar Jackson are fun to watch, and I root for them to do well, (or fail if it helps the Steelers), but they often lose their luster much earlier than the Bradys, Bens, and River types do. In the NFL the more a QB abandons his protection and hits the open field, the more likely he is to get destroyed
The Arrowheads hit their home turf missing DT Chris Jones, LB Frank Clark and standout CB, Kendall Fuller due to injuries. And don’t forget to add two starting offensive linemen to that M*A*S*H* unit.
KCs two losses this year have been at home, neither team plays compelling defense, and Aaron Rodgers is blue flame hot...I’m taking the Pack to butcher the Chiefs well Over the Number.
Packers 33 Chiefs 26
LOCK OF THE WEEK
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ATLANTA FALCONS +3 54 [U]
I am usually reluctant to pick a LOW against a home dog, but the Birds of Prey play football like mystified penguins—and this line opened so low because it wasn’t clear if Matt Ryan’s ankle would allow him to play or force backup, Matt Schaub into action.
It doesn’t really matter. Ryan is way over rated and injuries have decimated the Falcons defense, offensive line and running game.
Atlanta doesn’t rank above 24th in any defensive stat, except 20th in rushing and 6thth in YPR. They give up 32 PPG—and have just five sacks on the year.
Ouch!!!
Meanwhile in Seattle, Pete Carroll does what he usually does every year: field a fundamentally solid, disciplined playoff contender featuring MVP candidate, Russell Wilson.
Last week, at home, against the Crows, Wilson threw his first pick of the year and didn’t even complete 50º% of his passes.
Atlanta doesn’t have nearly the Raven-like defensive talent to stifle Wilson.. They also lack the rushing attack to exploit Seattle’s porous rush defense; the Gulls have given up 146 YPG on the ground in their last three games.
We were surprised this number was low on Monday, we’re stunned it hasn’t moved closer to 7 or 8.
We’ll take the “’Hawks to Cover the Field Goal –Under the Total.
Seahawks 31 Falcons 21
UPSET SPECIAL
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -15 43 [O]
I grabbed this line Monday and slotted this one as an Upset Special from the start.
The Steelers have no right, their play has not earned, a double digit spread against anybody.
And Mike Tomlin better tell his team they have no room for error. He should rely on RBs, James Connor and rookie RB, Benny Snell to rush for a buck and a half and hope his OL keeps Mason Rudolph upright.
Miami has played spurts of good football, but have yet to play 60 focused minutes. I don’t buy the “tanking” theory. These are professional men who at the core always play to win. Miami QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, isn’t tanking—he’s played for and reinvigorated more than a few NFL teams.
We think the Fish don’t stink as bad as their record says, and Fitzpatrick has had some sparkling moments against the Black and Gold. Okay, he’s 0-6 against Pittsburgh, but played well on some very bad teams—and he never quits.
The Steelers are much healthier now than they were two weeks ago; they are 10-5 after a bye under Tomlin, and have been smacked in the head with injuries in 2019.
Pittsburgh’s defense is evolving into a force— #2 in takeaways and 3rd at sacking the QB. Better yet, they’ve climbed from the bottom of the barrel to 15th, giving up 354 YPG, and are a respectable 10th in YPP surrendered. In their last three, the Steelers are no worse than eighth in every major category.
The Steelers should win in a rout—just not by 17 points.
Steelers 30 Dolphins 17
O/U OF THE WEEK
L.A.CHARGERS @ CHICAGO BEARS -5.5 40.5 [U]
Sometimes all we need is one word to describe offensive ineptitude.
In Chicago “Trubisky” has become that word.
Bears fans are dreading the 2017 number one pick doesn’t become used as other parts of speech, i.e.
· “Boy, the Bears got Trubiskied.”
· “ You know what, I could go for a Trubiscuit.”
· “Oh man,, we got Trubiskuly screwed in that draft
· Your kidding!! No, it’s Trubisky!!!!
· Here’s your Trubisky, right here, pal….
And where is the Bears defense? They let a Breesless Saints team rack up a cool 36 points and then allowed Oakland to score 24 while losing both games.
The Bolts give up 8.2 YPPA, they are hurting on the offensive line and defensive front seven.
They are vulnerable defensively, but they can say they’ve yet to lose a game by more than seven points and Phillip Rivers gives them a chance no matter what stadium he plays in.
The Bears are…well… Trubiskied!
Some trends:
· Los Angeles is 8-3 SU and ATS in its last 11 road games.
· Chicago is 8-3 SU and ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.
· Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 October games.
Two desperate teams will compete this week at Soldier Field—only one will walk away with a realistic shot at a post-season berth, and it won’t be Chicago.
Rivers leads the Electricians on a late game drive—Chargers win outright, Over the Total
Chargers 26 Da Bears 13
NFL Lines For Week 8 - NFL Football Line Week Eight NFL Line 10/24 - 10/28, 2019
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/24 8:20 ET At Minnesota [O] -17 Washington 41
10/27 1:00 ET At Detroit -7 NY Giants 49
10/27 1:00 ET At Tennessee -2.5 Tampa Bay 46.5
10/27 1:00 ET At Chicago O/U -5.5 LA Chargers 41
10/27 1:00 ET Seattle LW -3.5 [U] At Atlanta 54
10/27 1:00 ET At Jacksonville -4.5 NY Jets 41
10/27 1:00 ET At Buffalo -1.5 Philadelphia 42
10/27 1:00 ET LA Rams (London) -12.5 [O] Cincinnati 48
10/27 1:00 ET At New Orleans -12.5 Arizona 48
10/27 4:25 ET At Houston -7 Oakland 51
10/27 4:05 ET At San Francisco -6.5 Carolina 41.5
10/27 1:00 ET At Indianapolis -6.5 Denver 43.5
10/27 4:25 ET At New England -10.5 Cleveland 45.5
10/27 8:20 ET Green Bay GW -3 [O] At Kansas City 48
Monday Night Football Line
10/28 8:15 ET At Pittsburgh US -15 [O] Miami 43 Week 8
Byes: Baltimore, Dallas