Climbing Out of the Hole
AFTER WEEK SIX
Week Six Picks: 8 – 6 2019 Overall Tally: 44 – 46 – 2
Weekly Totals Picks: 3 – 2 Cumulative Totals: 14 - 15
Weekly Specials 0– 4 Cumulative Specials: 8 – 15 – 1
GAME OF THE WEEK 2 – 4 LOCK OF THE WEEK 2 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 2 – 3 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 2 – 4
GAME OF THE WEEK
HOUSTON TEXANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 46.5 [O]
For first place in the AFC South, we have two of the smarter coaches in the league, whose teams have both beaten the consensus second best team in the AFC, Kansas City, in consecutive weeks.
The public and the pundits are all over the place on this contest with the Books chipping away at the Total that opened at a full point more at most sites. We’re playing the Over big, because DeShaun Watson has been on a MVP level tear. He seems to have come to terms with playing smart football—protecting the ball, and making good decisions consistently.
Of course, that goal is much more easily achieved when the Texans run game has evolved into the leagues 5th best gaining 5.0 YPR. Indy’s run game is equal or better in nearly every category.
Indy was supposed to mourn Andrew Luck’s retirement, instead Jacoby Brisset and HC Frank Reich have made the Horseshoes one of the feel good stories of 2019, just as Watson and HC Bill O’Brien have made the Texans the favorite in the AFC South.
· Houston is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
· Houston is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
· Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Indianapolis.
· Houston is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Indianapolis.
· The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games on the road.
· The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis.
· Houston is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games this season.
· Houston is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games against an opponent in the AFC conference.
· Houston is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against an opponent in the AFC South division.
We tabbed Indy from the outset, wavered, did our research, and were convinced by Houston’s superior defense and more efficient offense to go with the Shit Kickers—until we saw the shaky injury status of DeAndre Hopkins and a host of other Texans players—most of whom are supposed to play hurt.
With Frank Reich’s club coming off the bye at home, and the Colts getting Darius Leonard back from a three week stint in the concussion protocol—without him, the Indy defense sputtered—we decided to stay with our first choice; a rule we are loathe to break
Colts 26 Texans 24
LOCK OF THE WEEK
LOS ANGELLES RAMS @ ATLANTA FALCONS -3 53 [U]
We jumped on this line Monday morning, wringing our hands with greedy delight, convinced the Spread should have tickled double digits. Why?
The Falcons sport the third least efficient defense in football—meaning when they are on the field they work too hard while allowing too many points. In fact, in every defensive category—analytic and conventional—the Falcon are awful on defense. Here’s a helpful chart from our friends at TeamRankings.com:
Yikes! Atlanta’s opponents damn near score a ½ point per play! They surrender 31 PPG.
I still don‘t get this line, even if the Rams defense has been one of the seasons glaring disappointments, L.A. still gives up a full yard less per play than Atlanta.
Even if Jared Goff is shaky, or L.A. is missing CB, Aqib Talib, and their offensive line has underperformed, the Bighorns still have Aaron Donald who can take over a game and stomp the life out of the enemy—and their first six opponents comprised one of the toughest schedules in the NFL.
The Rams aren’t trending as bad as some people think—three consecutive losses or not.
Here are three enlightening trends:
· The Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
· The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home underdogs.
· The Rams are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games vs the Falcons.
These Rams should be desperate for a win and have the manpower to take any stadium in the league by storm.
Obviously, we think they will do just that this Sunday in Georgia. The Under is our play here…
Rams 31 Falcons 21
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -1 40.5 [O]
The Chargers are the only team in the league who can’t wait to hit the road, probably because too many of their home games don’t deserve that description.
Last week, in L.A., hosting Sunday Night Football in a tiny 30,000 seat converted soccer stadium, 20,000+ Steeler fans forced Bolts players into a couple of pre-snap penalties and, QB Phillip Rivers had to silently audible more than once. The result was a Pittsburgh smack down that may have saved the Steelers season.
Red faces, embarrassed and angry, glared in the Bolts locker room. Steelers fans will love this link:
Maybe the “domestic abuse” Chargers players endure accounts for their 10-9 (52.6% 24th in NFL) record at home, and 13-7 away mark (65% 4th best in NFL), since they moved from San Diego.
The Electricians swoop into Nashville for a late afternoon tussle with a very formidable Titans defense—one of only six teams who surrender less than 16 PPG. The Titans allow an 8th least 5.1 YPP.
On offense, however, the Greek Deities play like soulless mortals. QB, Marcus Mariota will watch journeymen Ryan Tannehill start on Sunday, trying to spark a Tennessee offense that ranks 27th or lower in every major offensive category, except rushing YPG, (20th).
I’m expecting Phillip Rivers to have a solid performance and Joey Bosa to have a breakout game, but no matter the outcome, the plane ride back home won’t be a relief for the Chargers.
Chargers 27 Titans 20
NFL Lines For Week 7 - NFL Football Lines 10/17 - 10/21, 2019
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
10/17 8:20 ET Kansas City O/U -3.5 At Denver 50
10/20 1:00 ET At NY Giants -2.5 Arizona 50.5
10/20 1:00 ET At Indianapolis GW -1 [O] Houston 46.5
10/20 1:00 ET At Buffalo -16.5 Miami 39.5
10/20 1:00 ET Minnesota -1 At Detroit 44
10/20 1:00 ET At Green Bay -4.5 Oakland 46.5
10/20 1:00 ET Jacksonville -3 At Cincinnati 44.5
10/20 1:00 ET LA Rams LW -3 [U] At Atlanta 53
10/20 1:00 ET San Francisco -9.5 At Washington 43
10/20 4:05 ET At Tennessee US -2 [U] LA Chargers 40.5
10/20 4:25 ET At Seattle -3 Baltimore 49.5
10/20 4:25 ET At Chicago -3.5 New Orleans 39.5
10/20 8:20 ET At Dallas -3 [O] Philadelphia 49.5
Monday Night Football Line
10/21 8:15 ET New England -10 At NY Jets 42.5
Week 7 Byes: Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay