• Gary Porpora

2021 NFL WEEK TEN

NFL WEEK TEN 2021


2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK NINE

Week Nine Tally: 5 – 9 2021 Overall Tally: 66 – 70

Week Nine Totals 4 – 1 Cumulative Totals: 33 – 20

Weekly Specials 2 – 2 Cumulative Specials: 22 – 14

GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 6 LOCK OF THE WEEK 5 – 4

UPSET SPECIAL 8 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 6 – 3

PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 55 – 34 PARLAYS 1 – 3


LOCK OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 48) LW [U]


GAME OF THE WEEK


New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 44.5) GW [U]


This is a tough game to call. Both Kamara and Henry are out.


The Sharks and the public are all over Tennessee. The Titans looking to win six straight, have beaten all the AFC best teams—but are they that good?—and are fresh off a scintillating win over the Big Horns.


Mike Vrabel might be the most underrated coach in the NFL.


But since 2016, only Andy Reid has a better record as a road dog than Sean Payton.


Ryan Tannehill doesn’t move my needle. I think the Saints defense can shut down the Titans.


Take the points and the Under…


Saints 27

Titans 17



UPSET SPECIAL


Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-2.5, 45) US [U]


This might be a low scoring game because Myles Garrett is playing lights out, but with him and Jadeveon Clowney hurting, the Browns defense might be vulnerable.

New England’s defense is solid as they come.


Belichick will choke off the run—Cleveland C JC Tretter is out—and dare Mayfield to beat him. I think he will. The Browns know, with the Crows getting murdered in Miami and the Steelers playing a winless Detroit team, they have to keep up to win the North.


The Browns Cover, Under the Number…


Browns 23

Patriots 21



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK


Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 42) O/U


There is an inaccurate belief amongst Pittsburgh fans—fueled by a lazy media; and too often willing to create false narratives—That Mike Tomlin’s squad “plays down to their competition” or “doesn’t beat the teams they should beat…”


By now we’re all familiar with Tomlin haters when his team loses to any team the Steelers should beat, which to any obnoxious Steeler fan is every team. Tomlin Haters screech: "…Deer in the headlights"..."Team undisciplined"...."He was out coached"...” …”Too much of a player’s coach,”… “Tomlin must go!!!!!!!!”


Conversely, when the Steelers players successfully execute a victory, typical comments are, “Claypool looked good today” or "Friermuth has a lot of promise” or "Thank god for Boswell.”


It seems far too often, when the Steelers do well, Tomlin's role in that success is minimized. When the team comes up short, Tomlin's role in that failure is maximized.


Read the Post-Gazette after almost any Steelers loss; the vitriol, the bias, the undercurrents of racism are stronger than any current in the “Burgh’s Three Rivers.


This point was hammered home to me when I read Baltimore fan’s reaction this Friday, after their Magpies found themselves sleeping on the Fishes during TNF.


No doubt they were angry, but most Ravens fanatics weren’t panicky, they analyzed the loss the way Steelers fans once analyzed a Pittsburgh loss in the mid-‘80s or during Cowher’s three lean years.


THE FACTS


First, let’s clear up another myth …Uninformed Steeler fans, aka, Tomlin Haters, insist his hiring was due to the Rooney Rule. Since Ron Rivera was interviewed first—and was scheduled for a second sit down—the Rooney rule had already been complied with.


To fact-check the myth-making surrounding MT’s “losses to inferior teams” requires focused research, statistical integrity, and basic intelligence, all of which stretch the acumen of the Haters or the Ignorant.


After hearing more than one national broadcasters/writers and local hacks repeat the tripe prior to this week’s Steelers game with the Lions, I must, yet again, correct the record…


One. More. Time.


Or, as my eldest sister—after idiots like me make her repeat herself…

“Again…”


Behind The Steel Curtained debunked the "losing to teams they should beat" crapola in 2014. BTSC’s analysis concludes at the 10th game of 2014…Using their identical criteria, I extrapolated their methodology to include the rest of 2014 through last year.


Here are the facts:

Since 2007: Tomlin's record & winning percentage against teams:


Under .500 & .250 = 103 – 33 – 1 .757


Under .500 = 72 - 26 .735.....…


Under .250 = 31-7 .816 ......…


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CK8FmhNpBMg


Coach Tomlin has coached 232 NFL games: his record = 150-81-1 = .649 win percentage. Those seven losses to “teams he should have beat represents 8.6% of his losses, i.e. not a trend…


Furthermore, in exactly half of his tenure in the Burgh, the likely HOF coach had ZERO losses to teams under .250—in '08, '10-'11, '15-'16 ’17 & ’19 = Seven years. That, too, shoots down the “trend” myth.


For good measure, I looked at Tomlin’s five non-playoff seasons. In those five seasons—when Pittsburgh was one of those teams “good teams should beat” he defeated 11 division winners—at least two per campaign—representing 7.3% of his wins. Only in 2019, one of the finest coaching jobs in NFL history, did that dreadful team—remember the Duck and Mason show—not defeat a division winner.


Conclusion, except for the coach busted 3 separate times for cheating to gain a competitive advantage, Mike Tomlin is as good or better than any coach in the last 25 years.


He has earned respect.


OH YEAH, THE GAME


All you need to do is remember who won the Week 10 Thursday Nighter to know how precarious it is to handicap a league with a salary cap and floor, and an inverse drafting order, where successful teams usually play the hardest schedules.


Give Miami credit, they out physicaled the Magpies and the loss revealed some ugly warts


Baltimore has been flashing all year.


Before the bye, the Crows gave up a 98 yard kick return to the Vikings. Harbaugh’s team is always top five in special teams; it’s as inexplicable as a Dolphin running back open by 15 yards on a wheel route with the game on the line.


To be honest, even with Big Ben on the Covid list, I’m taking Pittsburgh. Tomlin will challenge his offensive line to open holes for rookie, Najee Harris, who has been looking better the last few games.


If I’m Dan Campbell, I tell my boys it’s bullshit—Ben’s banged up and they think they can win without him.


Respect is a hell of a drug.


Lay the 6.5 and expect Campbell to pull every rabbit from his hat and elsewhere. Tomlin should have the Men of Steel expecting every trick in the book.


I think Najee Harris breaks out a 160 yard three TD effort and the Steelers claw their way to first place in the AFC North.


This could be a shut out—T.J. will overtake Myles Garret in sacks. Lay the 6.5 and play the Under.


And, I’M CONFIDENT ABOUT IT!...I can’t be any more embarrassed after my TNF analysis, can I?


Wait, don’t answer that...


Steelers 27

Lions 11


The rest of my picks in bold italic…


Bye: Bears, Bengals, Texans, Giants


THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 48) LW [U]


SUNDAY 1PM ET

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (+12.5, 47.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team (+9, 51.5)

Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys (-8, 54)

New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 44.5) GW [O]

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-10.5, 47.5)

Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 42) 0/U

Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots (-2.5, 45)US [U]

SUNDAY 4PM ET

Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 51.5)

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-9.5, 45.5)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44.5)

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (-3, 49.5)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5, 50.5) [U]

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (+4, 49) [U]









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