NFL WEEK NINE - PICKS ATS
2022 NFL WEEK NINE – ATS
NFL 2022 WEEK EIGHT – TALLY SHEET
WEEK SEVEN = 9 – 6 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE = 57 – 65 – 1
WEEK SEVEN 0/U 3 – 2 – 1 O/U CUMULATIVE 28 – 26 – 1
SPECIALS 3 – 1 SPECIALS CUMULATIVE 19 – 13
GAME OF THE WEEK 3 – 5 LOCK OF THE WEEK 4 – 4
UPSET SPECIAL 7 – 1 O/U OF THE WEEK 5 – 3
PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE 47 – 39 – 1 .547
GAME OF THE WEEK
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints 47.5 GW [O]
Before this season began we would have expected this tussle to be dominated by two elite defenses. Although the Saints do crack the Top Ten in Opp. YPG and YPP, an elite defense can’t be 28th in Points. Allowed.
We don’t know if last Week’s shutout against the Raiders was a fluke or a harbinger of things to come. We do know the 3-5 Saints have lost at Carolina, and were beaten by Tampa Bay and Seattle at home.
The Mateys are the only team to defeat New Orleans by 10 or more points—meaning the Saints have been in every game despite being only 3-5 ATS.
The line movement in this one saw Baltimore targeted by most of the public as an easy bet, at -3.5, it wasn’t until the professional money took New Orleans and the 3.5 points that the books were compelled to drop the spread a half point to 3, currently at 2.5— to get bettors on the Ravens train.
Why? The answers provide a lot of insight as to how the Sharks/Pros approach wagering. Josh Applebaum at the highly respected www.vsin .com explains:
Through the first eight weeks of the NFL regular season, we've seen underdogs and unders produce a consistent profit for bettors. Dogs are 70-52 ATS (57%). Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 28-18 ATS (61%) and "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more are a sparkling 47-26 ATS (64%). Meanwhile, unders are 72-51 (59%). Divisional unders are 28-12 (70%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more 21-8 (72%).
Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Saints here, are 51-35 ATS (59%). Primetime dogs are 14-10 ATS (58%).
Pros have also targeted this MNF under, dropping the total from 49 to 48. Primetime unders are 16-9 (64%) and unders that fall at least a half point are 39-24 (62%)
Professional handicappers approach matchups in term of situational percentages/trends most weekend warrior bettors don’t have time or talent to decipher.
In fact, whenever the Pros and the public agree on a wager, safe—some would say “smart”— bettors join the crowd because, as the above Applebaum approach proves—the percentages are with you.
When I look at a matchup, sometimes my gut tells me to go the opposite way the public or the pros are going.
The better coach in this matchup is John Harbaugh. Dennis Allen’s Saints remind me of Dennis Allen’s Raiders when he was Oakland’s HC from 2012 to 2014, competitive in every game, but never learned how to win. Allen is a superb defensive coordinator and a piss poor head coach.
Lamar Jackson will be the most gifted athlete on the field, playing the most important position in the game—Andy Dalton, or any other Saints QB—not.
The Magpies need a win to put some distance between them and their AFC North rivals. A Saints victory, keeps pace with the .500 Falcons and a very crowded, and dreadful, NFC South.
To hell with the public and sharp money—the crows are the better team. We’ll lay the 2.5 and play the Over.
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Minnesota Vikings (-3.) @ Washington Commanders 43.5 LW [U]
What a piece of work Danny Boy Snyder is, huh?
It took the guy, what, four years, to realize how insulting his team’s nickname was?
Instead of embracing team history and honoring American Indians by keeping the former logo and simply honoring those who were rightfully insulted by the name Redskin, Snyder could have rebranded as the Native Americans, but no, Snyder vowed to “NEVER” change the offensive moniker.
Until he changed the moniker…
Imagine if he had taken my advice…
· Washington’s Native Americans would have been known lovingly as “The Nates”—a perfect verbal confluence with Washington baseball’s Nationals—“The Nats” …
· Snyder would have become an American hero if, at every home game, he gave away 200 tickets—or a corporate box—to representatives of a different tribes from the Iroquois to the Apache.
· He should have built an “American Indian Hall of Fame” highlighting the contributions and humanity of American Natives while trying to mend the wound of Manifest Destiny.
We could be writing about a true American hero doing the best, right thing to redefine American Exceptionalism.
Instead, the little idiot makes a fool of himself before doing what he knew he would be one day compelled to do.
To pour rock salt on that gaping wound, he renames his team, “The Commanders”…
When I first read that news item, I though it was “Commandos.” I spent the next 15 minutes wondering if the logo would be a tiny guy in cut-off camo-shorts with pimply walnuts bulging from his crotch—the new team catchphrase would be, ‘Go Commando!!!’
This week we heard the glorious news Danny Boy was putting the team up for sale—due to his organizations recently uncovered misogyny.
If you are thinking…”Ah justice…” Think again. 24 owners must approve of the sale—unprecedented in the NFL’s 102-year history.
And, even if the owners pulled that string, the sure-to follow anti-trust lawsuit would be anathema to the league, taking years to wind its way through the courts/
But let’s indulge our fantasies of justice and pretend Snyder goes gently into his night and he gets the 7 Billion it’ll take for him to sell—that would mean an approximate ROI about 900% on his initial purchase price of 750M.
Justice is not only blind—it’s crippled.
Oh, The Game
I feel sorry for Ron Rivera. With all the balls he has to juggle including Snyder’s—his coaching record will continue to take a hit.
Carson Wentz was struggling as the recently acquired franchise QB, and then injured a finger. Taylor Heinickie, relegated to a back-up role, has out-performed Wentz. Teammates love the former Old Dominion Monarch, and they play hard for Rivera.
Kirk Cousins, once a Redskin, seems to have finally found his footing. His Vikings are two games up in the NFC North and we’re thinking the turmoil swirling around Washington is taking a toll on the organization.
Winners of five straight, the Vikings have the superior talent on offense. They are the more balanced club, and so far, Cousins looks as if he’s ready to take the next step into the post-season.
I’m staying with the Vikings -3; they’ve been good to me all year. We’re betting the Under.
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 49.5 US [U]
Pete Carroll has my vote for Coach of the year. Every pre-season report I read had 2022 being Carroll’s worst season and dismissed Geno Smith as the dreaded bridge quarterback.
· 4th in QB Rating - 107.2…
· 5th in touchdown passes…
· 7th in Yards per Pass Thrown…
· 9th in Passing Yards
The Gulls have won three straight, last week they handled the upstart Giants easily with the help of back-up RB Kenneth Walker IIII who contributed a late 16 yard TD run—and he’s averaging 5.4 YPR….
This Sunday, the ‘Hawks descend into The Toaster in the Desert and face a Cardinals bunch who better be desperate. Thus far in 2022, Coach Kliff Kingsbury and QB Kyler Murray have managed to concoct the following anemic offensive profile…
· 4.9 YPP (30th)
· 33.95% Third Down Conversion Rate (27th)
· 5.6 YPPass (31st)
The Red Birds can’t even grab onto Seattle’s Achilles’ heel—a lousy rush defense, and they don’t put enough pressure on the quarterback in the passing game.
In fact, in way too many defensive categories The Cards rank no better, and often worse, than 22nd.
Here are a couple of trends via Oddssharks.com:
· The UNDER is 5-2 in Seattle’s last 7 games at Arizona.
· Seattle is 3-0-1 SU in its last 4 as an underdog vs. Arizona.
· The UNDER is 3-1 in Seattle’s last 4 as a dog vs. Arizona.
The Seahawks return a lot of players from the injury list; my research says they should handle Arizona fairly easily. I have no clue as to why the Cardinals are favored against this Seattle team—but I’ll take it.
We’re going with the under…
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 46.5 O/U
The Raiders stayed in Florida during the week to try and figure out why they can’t get over the top when it comes to consistent winning.
The Jaguars seem to be asking themselves the same question. With Doug Pederson as head coach, the Spotted Cats will find answers long before the Raiders.
These teams, and it seems many others in the NFL can look at their records and say every loss, (except Vegas’ shutout effort last week against the Saints), has been a one-score game—why have we won only two games?
Vegas had to deal with a flu virus that limited their practice time, going on three weeks now. WR, DaVante Adams was supposed to be that player who brought out the untapped talent hidden in Derek Carr. Adams is still under the weather and Carr was underachieving even when Adams was healthy.
And where is the pass rush? The Raiders made the playoffs last. I keep hearing how this was to be their breakout year. They added Chandler Jones to what was supposed to be a great defensive line—yet Vegas is last in sack percentage and last in takeaways per game…Jones has half a sack.
Jacksonville is young they’ve got a solid foundation in the trenches, a good young QB, and a great back in Travis Etienne.
If Pederson doesn’t try to outsmart himself, Jax should pound the ball down the Raiders throat
As usual, my picks are below in bold italic with Specials and Totals annotated:
Philadelphia Eagles (-14) @ Houston Texans 43.5 [O]
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons 49.5
Miami Dolphins (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears 44.5
Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals 43,5
Green Bay Packers (-4) @ Detroit Lions 49.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 48 O/U
Indianapolis Colts (+5.5) @ New England Patriots 39.5
Buffalo Bills (-12.5) @ New York Jets 47.5
Minn. Vikings (-3) @ Washington Commanders 43.5 LW [U]
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals 49.5 US [U]
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 42.5
Tennessee Titans (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs 46.5
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ New Orleans Saints 47.5 GW [O]