top of page

NFL 2024 - WEEK SEVEN PICKS ATS

Gary Porpora

NFL 2024 WEEK SIX =  10 - 4      2024 OVERALL. =  53 - 34 - 5  .610

WEEKLY O/U  =  5 - 2     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  24 - 16

WEEKLY SPECIALS  =  2 - 3  SPECIALS CUMULATIVE  =  17 - 9 - 3

GAME OF THE WEEK    3 – 3       LOCK OF THE WEEK   4 – 1 - 2

UPSET SPECIAL     3 – 2 -1              O/U OF THE WEEK   3 - 3

STEELERS  4 - 2    PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE  =  41 -25 - 3 .620


NFL 2024 - WEEK SEVEN

GAME OF THE WEEK 

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers  (-2)  46.5   GW  [O]


Super Bowl rematch here.  KC took the crown, the, ring, and the wardrobe in the most recent Super Bowl. 


Yeah, I’m aware how much SF’s head honcho, Kyle Shanahan, must be itching to beat the Arrowheads, but he has no one to blame but himself for earning the moniker of “Coach Who Can’t Win the Big One.”  I’m not talking about his decision to receive the Overtime kickoff in the 2023 Super Bowl --I’m talking SB 51...


Here’s the link to the whole game; the sequence begins at 1:49:15...



I’ll never forgive Shanny for not running the ball two more times after Julio Jones’ spectacular catch on NE’s 22 yard-line.  Quick reset:


Ball on Patriot’s 22...1st & 10, Falcons...4:40 left to play...NE Has three TOs...


At this point every Patriot Hater and intelligent football fan--same thing--is ecstatic because the only correct course is to run the ball three times, or take three knees, then kick the field goal from the 20 yard line, a 37-40 FG--in essence 2-4 yards longer than an extra-point.  (NFL kickers make XPs 95% of the time.) After the ensuing kickoff goes through the end zone, NE gets the ball at the 25, no times out and down 31-20 with about 3:30 remaining.


We know Belichick, the most sanctioned Cheater in NFL history, would have expended his three times out in the above scenario because he began to do so so in the ridiculous sequence that Shanahan orchestrated--no gain run, sack, penalty, incompletion, punt...


After Missed INTs by Atlanta and superb execution by Brady & the gang; James White slashes into the end zone;  Brady to Edelmen for the 2-pointer, and the game is tied with 57 seconds remaining in regulation.  Time expended on drive; 2:33; only one time-out expended.


If Shananhan made the only smart moves--there is no counter argument-- and had taken three knees--forcing BB to use three times out--then made the easy field goal, Brady starts the first necessary drive at his own 25 with about 3:30 remaining, down 31-20...


Let’s be very generous and say Brady drives for a TD in one minute with zero TOs.  After the kickoff the Falcons take over at their 25 leading 31-28 after the kick off with 2:30 seconds left to play.


From there, it’s a done deal:  


1st Down - KNEE = 2:00 minute warning...


2nd Down - KNEE = 1:20 left...


3rd Down - KNEE =  40 seconds left


After Atlanta punts, and noting that a running play, instead of taking a knee would take 10-15 more seconds, the Patriots would have been lucky to have 25 seconds to position themselves for the tying field goal--40 yards away.  That means middle of the field and the running game are, essentially, out of play, the DL can pin its ears back, and the corners can squeeze the out routes.  Even for a talent like Brady gaining 35-40 yards in that scenario is a tough ask.


In any event, that scenario is far more desirable than the Pats having 3:30 remaining from their own 8 to score a TD.


Guarantee Andy Reid would have played it the smart way.


The coaching and QB edge point to the Arrowheads.  The Chiefs defense is legitimate Top Ten, but, overall, these squads are evenly matched.


Take the Chiefs the Points, and the OVER...


49ers 28

Chiefs 27  



LOCK OF THE WEEK 


Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams  (-5.5)  44   LW  [O]


This match-up spawns another Gairzo mini-rant:  When is the NFL going to crack down on teams who play shenanigans with the injury report?  C’mon man, it used to be a straight up part of the NFL week:  Tell us who is probable, questionable or out.


Lately everyone and their mother is questionable, and/or on the revamped Injured Reserve list which now can be several weeks to the entire season..


This game illustrates the problem, especially from a handicapping perspective.  Conflicting injury reports tell us Cooper Kupp’s status ranges from “a go” to doubtful, to late scratch; Maxx Crosby is “dealing with” a high ankle sprain or he’s “scheduled to participate.”  These two players make their respective teams a lot better--if they are healthy and playing.   


In the last 2-3 years, these suddenly indecipherable injury reports make serious bettors’--Sharps betting four-figures+ a game--already difficult task much more difficult.  Vegas already has the algorithms, exclusive access to team info, and a data base the public can’t easily access.  


There should be more vigilance on these injury reports--not that difficult a concept, people.


THE GAME


This contest is the only worthy Lock on the Week Seven Slate.  


Given Vegas’ Davante Adams trade with the Jets, it looks and smells like the Raiders have thrown in the towel on the 2024 campaign.  Their quarterback choices are Aidan O’Connel and Gardner Minschew--and their receivers room is now one of the weakest in the league.


Their once ballyhooed choice of Antonio Pierce as head coach?  Let’s just say the honeymoon is over and the newlyweds are beginning to realize they doesn’t like each other.  

Lovely music to the ears of Raiders Haters Nation.


Los Angeles has Matt Stafford at QB and Sean McVay as HC which pours super glue into our Lock.


The defenses stink, we’re calling a high-scoring affair, an easy Rams win, and the Over.


Rams 30

Raiders  17



UPSET SPECIAL


Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings  (-1.5)   51.5 US  [O]


I’m happy for a guy like Sam Darnold who has found redemption in a new environment, but it’s going to take more than six games to proclaim the former USC product as Comeback Player of the Year.


Pundits are proclaiming the NFC North as the NFL’s best division.  a 17 -5 division record is hard to argue with.  We agree believe the Lions are the conference’s best hope to beat the Chiefs in their quest to win three rings in a row--and they are a click or three better than their divisional foes.


The Vikings shouldn’t be giving the Lions any points, even at home, even if Aidan Hutchinson is out for the year.  Detroit is statistically superior--Top Eight in most major stats--on both sides of the ball. 



The Lions will show the Norsemen who rules the NFCN Jungle in a score-fest.  The Over is our confident play here...


Lions  34

Vikings  30



OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK- THE STEELERS


New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2  37 O/U 


RANT TIME


What in the wide, wide, world of sports are these NFL coaches doing?


These guys are supposed to be the cream of an elite crop, but when Aaron Rodgers or any quarterback is in a position to heave a Hail Mary 50-60 yards into a crowded end zone, NFL head coaches act like they have the football acumen of Mother Teresa.


Here are three Hail Marys Rodgers has thrown



The third highlight is different in that it was from the the Arizona 40 yard-line--but at least the Cardinals rushed six guys--except the right defensive end didn’t keep Rodgers contained.


In the Gairzo football hand book, I blitz my at least one of my corners and linebackers, and never let Rodgers get comfortable enough to take four or five steps before launching his missile.


Look at the first two prayers again.  The defenses rushed 3-4 guys. The Packers keep SIX in to block.  Rodgers scrambles, draws the defenders to one side and his line turns into a wall that gives Rodgers the time and room to make the throw.  


That is just badly conceived defensive strategy.  If I’m Tomlin, or any other coach, I’m running a dog Rodgers hadn’t seen the whole day.


He won’t know which way to turn.


Oh Yeah--The Game...


Since Mike Tomlin took the Steelers helm in 2007, his team is second best at Home and as a Home Dog.  (Keep in mind, I do not give the Cheaters respect, as any stats they own in the Belichick era are tainted with cheating.)


I am staying away from this game.  Too many known unknowns:


  • How many sacks will the badly injured and very average offensive line deal with DPOY candidate, T.J. Watt?

  • Will Aaron Rodgers be able to run away from Cam Heyward and Company before re-tearing his Achilles?

  • Can Davante Adams revive the Jets inconsistent passing offense?

  • Will Russel Wilson be able to run without injuring the calf he yanked in the summer?

  • Can he complete enough passes to penetrate one of the NFL’s best secondaries?


Wilson and Adams will upgrade their respective units, I just don’t think the Steelers appreciate being the Home Dog against these Jets.  The numbers say they shouldn’t be.


Pittsburgh is the value pick at home--With the additions of Adams and Wilson, the Over won’t be in question after the third quarter.


Steelers  30 

Jets  19


As usual, all my Specials,  ATS, and Totals pick are below in bold italics...


NFL Week 7 Matchups, Point Spreads, Over/Unders

Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints (-1)  36.5 [U]

New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars  (-5)  42.5 [U]

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons  (-3)   49.5 

Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills  (-9.5) 42.5 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns  (+4.5) 44.5 

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers  -3  46.5

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts  (-3.5)  42.5 

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings  (-1.5)   51.5 US  [O]

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (+3)   45.5 

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams  (-5.5)  44   LW  [O]

Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders  (-8)   51.5 

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers  (-1.5)  46.5   GW  [O]

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2  37 O/U. [O]

Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccanees (+4)  49.5  [O]

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals  (+2.5) 44 [U]

The Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys are off this week.

4 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

NFL 2024 CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY - PICKS ATS

2024 DIVISIONALS =  2 - 2  2024 OVERALL. =  155 - 121 - 5 .562 WEEKLY O/U  =  2 - 2     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  83 - 55  .601 WEEKLY SPECIALS ...

NFL 2024 DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - PICKS ATS

2024 SUPER WILDCARD =  3 - 3  2024 OVERALL. =  153 - 119 - 5 .563 WEEKLY O/U  =  3 - 3     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  79 - 52  .603 WEEKLY...

NFL 2024 - SUPER WILCARD WEEKEND

2024 REGULAR SEASON=  9 - 7  2024 OVERALL. =  150 - 116 -6 .564 WEEKLY O/U  =  2 - 3     O/U CUMULATIVE  =  77 - 51  .602 WEEKLY...

Comentarios


bottom of page