UPSET SPECIAL
TENNESSEE TITANS (11-7) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (13-4) -7.5 51 [O]
I’ve ridden The Train that is Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans for the last nine weeks and I’ve been a winner seven times.
To me it comes down to coaching in the post-season and as much as I love Andy Reid his teams always seem to have an extra large Achilles Heel an opponent can grab onto…and squeeze.
Too often that weakness is exactly opposite where his opponent is strongest.
Seventeen years ago, the Greatest Show On Turf tortured Coach Reid’s league leading Eagle’s defense in his only Super Bowl appearance. When Reid shored up a mediocre offense, with TO, superior defenses in Tampa Bay and Carolina, broke his heart.
Last year, in another conference championship, this time with MVP Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady and Cheating Bill Belichick found a way to outgun the leagues best offense, and hand Reid his fifth CCG loss—against only one victory.
This year, after fortifying his secondary with Marcus Peters, and watching that aspect of his defense improve dramatically, Reid finds his squad tasked with stopping the Train and a team that believes they can win it all—against a KC defense giving up 4.5 YPR throughout the year.
Yep, it's the weakest link of the Kansas City defense against the heart and soul of Tennessee’s offense.
Don’t get me wrong, I admire Coach Reid. He’s never stopped believing in himself or his approach to the game. He’s overcome unimaginable adversity off the field, and, despite his teams’ weaknesses, his players always play 60 minutes of tough football.
Straight up, I think this year’s version of Reid’s Arrowheads win seven of ten games against Mike Vrabel’s 2019 Titan’s—but I bet every game would be close because Derek Henry can pound defenses into submission, keep a great QB on the sideline, and expect the league’s highest rated QB—aka Ryan Tannehill—to make just enough plays to keep a close game in doubt…and maybe steal a trip to the Super Bowl
With 7.5 points in the hopper, I’m betting Henry and the Titans will do just that.
The Chiefs win, the Titans Cover—Over the Number.
Chiefs 29 Titans 24
GAME OF THE WEEK
GREEN BAY PACKERS (14-3) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS(13-3) - 7.5 45.5 [U]
You can look at a statistical comparison of the conference championship games on several sites in cyberspace. I think the best ones are found here:
You’ll find every comparison you need to make an informed, intelligent and, hopefully, profitable opinion.
Please, allow me to save you the time; The 2019 Gold Miners, on every level of offensive and defensive performance are eons better than this year’s version of the Green Bay Packers…
· Jimmy Handsome averages a full yard more per pass play than Aaron Rodgers
· San Fran’s 146 YPG on the ground—third best in the NFL—spanks the Pack’s 15th ranked rushing effort of 112 YPG
· Jimmy G is 4th in completion%, Rodgers 23rd, a few ticks below Kyle Allen and Mason Rudolph
· Garopollo is 8th in QB rating—four spots better than Rodgers…
· Defensively the Pack gives up nearly a full yard per play more than the Niners
· San Fran also gains a half yard more per play on offense...
So, let make our informed, intelligent, and profitable decision—it’s a no brainer, right?
Of course, take the Packers, the 7.5 points and bet it big!!!
Yes, I know folks, it takes a real asshole to make that much effort for a cheap joke—but the network and talk radio pundits pissed the Gairzo off this week. One preposterous clown on the NFL network insisted that the pressure was all on Matt Lefleur, whose “Big Brother” Kyle Shanahan would hopefully take it easy on the Little Flower.
Last I heard it was Kyle Shanahan who didn’t have the sense of a common dog to run the goddamn ball when Brady was making the greatest comeback in Super Godammned Bowl History…
Rodgers and his rookie coach have become comfortable enough with each other to take advantage of the QB’s awesome talent. Brian Bulaga, as of this writing, will be starting on the offensive line for Rodgers and he is crucial for the Packer’s run game—and protecting the QB.
I also found these little nuggets:
· Since 2014, the 49ers are 29th ATS under any circumstance…
· Only Tampa Bay has a worse ATS record as a home favorite than the 6-16-1 Gold Miners
· Only Tampa Bay has a worse ATS record as a favorite than 11-22-1 San Francisco
I’m thinking Rogers and his rookie coach won’t make the same mistakes they did in the Week 12, 37-8 smack down and I have faith DC, Mike Pettine will find a way to neutralize George Kittle and force Garopollo to make some throws he’s not comfortable making.
The 49ers pull it out with a late field goal—The Pack Covers, Under the Total.
49ers 27 Packers 24
NFL Lines AFC & NFC Conference Championship Games1/19, 2020
Date & Time Favorite Line Underdog Total
1/19 3:05 ET At Kansas City -7 [O] Tennessee 51.5
1/19 6:40 ET At San Francisco -8 [U] Green Bay 45.5