TNF WEEK FOUR - PICK ATS

TNF WEEK FOUR NFL 2026 - PICK AGAINST THE SPREAD - (ATS)

When: Thursday, October 1 at 8:20 pm ET

Where: Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio

Channel: Prime Video

Steelers vs. Browns Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Sunday, September 27. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Steelers -148, Browns +124

Spread: Steelers -2.5 (-120), Browns +2.5 (+100)

Total: Over 38.5 (-105), Under 38.5 (-115)

STEELERS GAME

It appears the Sharps money is leaning Cleveland’s way in this Week Four opener.  Lots of experts insist the Brownies defense is better than Pittsburgh’s.

The stats I’m looking at tell the opposite story.  Both teams score 1.7 TDs per game--24th in the league.  Both allow two TDs per game--6th best...Both defenses yield about 5.5 YPP. 

The Steelers, surrendering third down conversions 33.3% of the time, are slightly better than Cleveland at 39.02.  

Pittsburgh rushes for .8 YPR more than the Browns--a significant marker--and both team surrender about 4.5 YPR

The Steelers lack balance on offense, rushing only 35.26% of the time, but they are a respectable 12th gaining 4.3 YPR compared to Cleveland’s third worst 3.5.  Through the air, the Browns gain a full yard more than the Black & Gold per pass, but DeShaun Watson’s sack percentage is the NFL’s third worst at 9.78.

In no important statistical category does Cleveland show a strong advantage over their division rival.

Here are some team-centric trends from Steve Makinen over at VSIN.com:

* PITTSBURGH is 32-21 SU but 15-36 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011

* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 11-15 SU and 7-19 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021

Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 at CLE)

* CLEVELAND is 39-47 ATS (45.3%) at home since 2015

* CLEVELAND is 25-41 ATS (37.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015

Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)

* PITTSBURGH is 38-13 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013

* PITTSBURGH is 32-10 Under the total as a road favorite since 2014

Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CLE (o/u at 38.5)

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TRENDS

• In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 31-25 SU but 20-34-2 ATS (37%) in the last 56. 

  
  

• Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 49-31 SU and 46-31-3 ATS (59.7%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season. System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)

  
  

• Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 9-24 SU and 14-19 ATS (42.4%) in their last 33, scoring just 16.3 PPG. In terms of totals, 21 of the last 31 (67.7%) TNF games featuring a home dog went UNDER. System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT). System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CLE (o/u at 38.5)

  
  

• TNF Team Trends Cleveland 7 straight wins, 5-1-1 ATS

• Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU and ATS in the last seven

• Trends Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)

This is a typical AFC North contest; the Hate Meter will be redlining, but both squads feature new coaches/systems that will mitigate the intra-divisional familiarity.

I’ll go with the Steelers with their edge at QB and coach, and a defense that can change a game at any time.  

We are torn on the Total in this game, but the Steelers showed some real promise last week against a Cincy defense that was supposed to be improving.  The offensive line played much more efficiently, and A-A-Ron Rodgers showed more faith in his receiving corps. 

We’ll play the Over.

Steelers 26

Browns  15