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  • Gary Porpora

TNF 2023 - WEEK THIRTEEN - PICK ATS

Date: Thursday, November 30th

Time: 8:15 p.m. ET

Channel: PRIME VIDEO (Amazon)

Weather:  Perfect...


Cowboys (-9.5) @ Seahawks Cowboys -425; Seahawks +330 46.5 [U]


We do agree there is no “easy schedule” in the NFL, but one of the things I like doing, halfway through, and beyond during the season is determine the quality of a given team is by reviewing who they played.  


Most of the time no pattern emerges.  The margins between a great, good, or lousy team are so thin most fans accept a bad team beating a supposedly great team as part of the old “any given Sunday” cliche we’ve been parroting for fifty years.


Sometimes patterns do emerge and they fairly often reveal a consensus NFL contender to be an obvious pretender. No other team since 1995 fit the “pretender”  description more than the Dallas Cowboys--the always over-hyped, over-covered, overrated Cowboys.


Check out their 2023 season results to date; let’s see if you can spot the same patterns I do: 


Dallas 2023 Season Performance :


Week Opponent Rank H/A/N Score 

  • Week 12 Washington 29 Home W 45-10 

  • Week 11 at Carolina 31 Away W 33-10 

  • Week 10 NY Giants 30 Home W 49-17 

  • Week 9 at Philadelphia 6 Away L 23-28 

  • Week 8 LA Rams 17 Home W 43-20 

  • Week 6 at LA Chargers 8 Away W 20-17 

  • Week 5 at San Francisco 1 Away L 10-42 

  • Week 4 New England 28 Home W 38-3 

  • Week 3 at Arizona 32 Away L 16-28

  • Week 2 NY Jets 24 Home W 30-10

  • Week 1 at NY Giants 30 Away W 40-0


Their first four games featured three routs versus four low level teams--somehow the QB strapped Cardinals beat the Cowboys.


The next four games result in two losses to the Niners and Philly--elite teams--a home rout of the Big Horns  and a road  win against the decently talented Chargers.


Their last three games ended as routs against three of the bottom barrel NFL teams.


Patterns..


  • If you’re one of the worst teams in the league, Dallas will crush you...

  • ...But they are quite capable of losing to a bad team...

  • If you’re an elite team, the Cowboys can’t hang


I admit, Seattle isn’t elite--and they also can’t hang with the best teams, but they have beaten the Browns and Detroit.


One of the guys I respect most over at vsin.com Is Zachary Cohen who sees Pete Carroll as one of the NFL's best coaches:


  • Under Carroll, Seattle is 20-5 ATS when coming off two or more losses in a row... 

  • The team also won those games by an average of 6.9 points per game...

  • The Seahawks are also 9-5 straight-up and 11-3 ATS after scoring 17 or fewer points in their previous two games. Carroll tends to get his offenses out of funks. 

  • Meanwhile the Cowboys are just 3-8 both SU and ATS against NFC West opponents under Mike McCarthy.


I agree with Cohen, Dallas favored by 9.5 is borderline disrespectful to Seattle, and Gino Smith’s elbow--according to him--has fully healed since last week.


We’ll take that 9.5 And watch the Cowboys win by no more than seven,  We think the Number is about right--we’ll call the Under.


Cowboys 26

Seahawks 21

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