NFL WEEK THREE PICKS ATS
Updated: Sep 28
WEEK TWO NFL 2026 - PICKS AGAIST THE SPREAD, (ATS)
As usual there were a plethora of surprises in Week One--and many examples of NFL business as usual..
Here’s our Tally Sheet after two very forgettable performances by your very humble prognosticator:
NFL 2025 WEEK TWO = 6 - 10 2025 OVERALL. = 12 - 20
WEEKLY O/U = 3 - 3 O/U CUMULATIVE = 8 - 6
WEEKLY SPECIALS = 1 - 4 CUMULATIVE = 4 - 6
GAME OF THE WEEK 1 – 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK 1 – 1
UPSET SPECIAL 0 - 2 O/U OF THE WEEK 1 – 1
STEELERS 1 - 1 PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE = 12 - 12
NFL WEEK THREE PICKS ATS
News Flash: The Gairzo will not be posing anytime soon for a bust prior to his induction into the Handicapper’s Hall of Fame.
12-20 on the year. (My hot Chinese wife could pick more accurately based on “how pretty” a team’s uniforms are.)
My only saving grace--I’m not as bad as the Steelers offense--yet--and somehow, I’m still .500 with my premium picks--but I’m hanging on for dear life.
I’m not alone. Look at almost any website and most NFL odds analysts are just as flummoxed as yours truly...
How does a Cleveland team that looked, well, like an average Browns squad make life miserable for the Matey’s--in Tampa?
Can Green Bay staffers launder out the cleat prints Atlanta RB, Bijan Robinson, trampled onto their iconic green uniforms?
What happened to the Jim Harbaugh mystique? Didn’t he recently proffer Justin Herbert could be the greatest QB in NFL history?
How does Pittsburgh receiver, DK Metcalf manage every day tasks with hands of granite? Seriously, it wouldn’t surprise me if drops his dick when he chokes his chicken.
If you want some insight as to why we are still watching pre-season football, gander at this article featuring HOF coach, Tony Dungy, one of the NFL pundits I respect most--and a man of great character.
Let’s try to find our own answers in the Week Three NFL slate of games...
GAME OF THE WEEK
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos +2.5 45.5 GW [U]
Since Sean Payton’s head coaching gig started in the Mile High City, (2023), his Broncos are 4-2 ATS as Home Dogs. Last season, the Wild Horses were 3-0 getting points at home.
Without Puka Nacua in the line-up Matt Stafford and Sean McVay have to lean on a running game averaging 5.0 YPR--the Wild Horses allow 5.1 YPR. Look for Denver to crowd the point of attack and force Stafford to confront one of the NFL’s best secondaries allowing opponents to complete only 57.14% of their passes.
A less discussed factor will be the Rams travel schedule. They opened the season rushing to get to Melbourne where the 49ers had been for five days lying in wait to destroy the the Big Horns 27-7. L.A.’s Week Two trouncing of New York, who lost starting QB, Jaxson Dart, on the first series, isn’t as impressive as it seems.
Injuries on defense to Myles Garret, and Aaron Donald’s slow start lean us to take the 2.5 Points, and the home team--Under the Number.
Broncos 23
Rams 21
LOCK OF THE WEEK
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 45 LW [U]
In their 20-3 win over the offensively inept Steelers, the New Englander’s offense scored exactly 13 points and looked almost as inept trying to move the ball--and returning a fumble for a TD against Pittsburg doesn’t give the Pats any style points.
I think the Patriots, their quarterback--their entire organization --is overrated--although Mike Vrabel is a top-shelf coach Robert Kraft is lucky to have hired.
We like Liam Cohen’s approach as coach--he’s also play calling this year---and believe the Jaguars can make some noise on the way to the playoffs, if Clemson alum, Trevor Lawrence, becomes what everyone believes he was when Jacksonville picked him first overall in 2021.
This is a coin flip game; we’ll give the points and look for a relatively low scoring contest. That means we like the Under.
Jaguars 27
Patriots 17
OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers -7 44.5 O/U
We were wrong on every facet of this game. No Bullshit. No excuses.
Packers 26
Falcons 13
UPSET SPECIAL
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -8.5 47.5 US [U]
Sometimes you just have to stick to your process, even when it’s going bad. This is a divisional game; these teams know each other intimately.
The Niner’s outsmarted the Ram’s braintrust by flying to Melbourne on the Wednesday before their season opener. If you go back and look closely at that game, you will see a jet-lagged Rams team struggling mightily against a rested, well prepared division rival.
I’m not taking anything away from the Big Horns recent excellence or the Niners victory, but I’ll lay serious money any NFL head coach having to transport his team for 16 hours will arrive a few days early to give his team a better chance to win.
San Fran’s Week Two home slaughter of the the Miami Dolphins doesn’t speak to their true character any more than their beatdown of travel-weary L.A. the week before.
After getting trampled by the Super Bowl champs on opening weekend, the Red Birds made a lot of pundits look dumb in Week Two by pummeling the Chargers in SOFI, 26-14
The Cardinals keep it close Enough--Under the Total.
49ers 27
Cardinals 20
STEELERS GAME
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 43.5 [U]
The Steelers offense couldn’t penetrate a New England defense, gave up a return TD off a fumble and looked like they are still playing pre-season football. Welcome to the club boys--it is the preseason if you watch the NFL Red Zone channel. Stupid pre-snap penalties, shoddy execution, sub -standard tackling...
Pittsburgh receiver, DK Metcalf, dropped more balls than A-A-Ron Rodgers missed receivers. Rico Dowdle has been barely pedesestrian, and the offensive line--they spent millions on that unit--can’t open a hole. The receiving corps can’t run a route to get open long enough for Mr. Rodgers to find anyone.
Meanwhile, in the Queen City, draft grades are top-ten, although they traded their first-rounder to acquire the studley Dexter Lawrence--he’s only 6’5’ 350 pounds--from the G-Men. He has transformed a laughable unit into a swaggering behemoth--and the Striped Cats hit pay dirt with their 2nd rounder, edge rusher, Cashius Howell. The result is a sixth ranked sack rate of 8.7.
Rodgers is in for a bad day.
The Steelers fortunes in this contest, rest with their defense...What else is new? Pittsburgh sacks the QB at a league leading 13.73 Rate and can take over a game. They might have to. Joe Burrow, and a top-five receiving corps are just hitting their stride.
A divisional game, intense vitriol for perennial rivals, compels us to confidently bet the Under. The Steelers, since 2020 are third best as a Home Dog, straight up and sixth ATS. I hope I regret this pick, but Joe Burrow is an umder-achieving elite QB--with a destructive defense--the Striped Cats could be the surprise team of 2026--the Cincy QB can find himself very quickly.
We think he will against a Pittsburgh club still searching for themselves.
It wii be close but we’re calling a six-point Cincy win on a late defensive TD...
Bengals 20
Steelers 14
Here's the whole Week Three slate...
NFL WEEK THREE POINT SPREADS & TOTALS)
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers -7 44.5 O/U
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills -7 50
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Browns +2.5 41
New York Jets @ Detroit Lions -6.5 48
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts +3 44
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 45 LW
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins +11 45.5
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants -3 43
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 43.5 [U]
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders +6 41
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -8.5 47.5 US [U]
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 43
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints -3 44
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys +3 52 [U]
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncos +2.5 45.5 GW [U]
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears +4 43.5 [U]
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