Gary Porpora

Oct 9, 20214 min read

NFL WEEK FIVE ATS

Updated: Oct 20, 2021

WEEK FIVE 2021

2020 NFL TALLY SHEET – WEEK FOUR

Week Three Tally: 10 – 6 2021 Overall Tally: 32 – 32

Week Two Totals 2 – 4 Cumulative Totals: 12 – 11

Weekly Specials 3 – 1 Cumulative Specials: 11 - 5

GAME OF THE WEEK 1 – 3 LOCK OF THE WEEK 3 – 1

UPSET SPECIAL 4 – 0 O/U OF THE WEEK 3 – 1

PREMIUM PICK CUMULATIVE 23 – 16

THREE POINT PARLAYs 1 – 1

GAME OF THE WEEk

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3, 56.5) GW [U]

Weather might affect the outcome of this game as the wind is supposed to maintain at a steady 10-15 mph throughout, and rain is expected to intensify in the second half—I might regret it, but it contributed to my changing my call on the Total.

The bigger factor for that rare change is the Buffalo defense.

Nobody will stop these Chiefs; all defenses can do is pick the right poison and hope it doesn’t kill them—but, the Bills have the defensive personnel to choose correctly. They’ll get 3-4 sacks on Maholmes and make him one –dimensional. Of course that dimension is fraught with danger that can prove fatal, but Buffalo has Josh Allen as the answer to anything the Chiefs throw at them.

As good as the Bills defense is, the Chief’s defense is awful—dead last, giving 6.9 YPP. And 5.4 yards rushing YPP; next to last in RYPG and rushing TDs per game.

Getting the Bills and a field goal is a bargain even at Arrowhead.

The Bills win it outright…The Under is our play…

Bills 33

Chiefs 22

LOCK OF THE WEEK

TENNESSEE TITANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+4.5, 48.5) LW [U]

This one seems to be a gift from Vegas. I thought the line would be at least 8.5…

Urban Meyer is as close to a ‘dead coach walking” as possible in the NFL.

After his Jaguars got shellacked 37-21 at Houston last week, Coach Meyer decided to skip the flight home with his team to—Ahem—spend more time with his family:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TshbQa_qMMY

Some family, huh? I don’t remember my family being that close.

Let’s keep it surreal; I too had to put great effort into not laughing at the anchorman’s use of “compromising position.” Even greater effort was required not to fixate on exactly where Ol’ Urb’s unseeable right hand might be.

Guess the coach needed a respite from the “”grind” of NFL coaching.

Sorry, couldn’t resist, but the Urbster needs some relief; his football team’s statistical profile reeks of failure:

23rd in Total YPG
26th in scoring
27th in Passing YPG
20th in YPP

Defensively, the stench metastasizes:

27th in Scoring Defense
29th in Opponents YPP
30th in Opponents Passing YPP

In the last five games against the Jags, Derek Henry averages 147+ YPG and 7.1 YPC.

Even with a defense that has failed to build on last year’s squad, the Titans won’t have to be dominant against a Jacksonville group searching for an identity on both sides of the ball, success from the league’s #1 overall pick, and—very soon—a competent head coach.

Titans 26

Jaguars 17

OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

CHICAGO BEARS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (-5.5, 45.5) O/U

One of many candidates for our Number Special in Week Five. The Bears rate as disappointingly average across the board and the Raiders are inconsistent on defense—but their defensive line can make life miserable for the Bears QB, even if it isn’t Andy Dalton.

Justin Fields was named starter over the hobbled Dalton based on his performance the last two weeks. Dalton’s knee injury probably moved up Fields’ starting date—but it was only a matter of time.

Fields better be good against a Raiders defense that allows just 5.8 yards per pass and a defensive line that can be streaky, but nasty. It also doesn’t help the Fields that his Bears are the NFL’s worst team in Sack%--allowing sacks a whopping 13.68% of the time. To make things worse, RB David Montgomery has been put on the IR.

That’s why after a brief debate, we feel safe with our Under call in this one. The Bears anemic offense—last in YPG, 3rd down conversion rate and YPP--might not even challenge an average Raider defense.

Chicago’s defense has enough playmakers to hold the Raiders 6th best offense to well under 30 points…We like the Under more with every word we write.

Raiders 26

Bears 17

UPSET SPECIAL

GREEN BAY PACKERS @

CINCINATTI BENGALS -4 49.5 US [O]

This is a tough week for the Upset Special. The Browns and Giants were all good choices, but we believe the Cowboys have turned a corner and Cleveland with an injured Mayfield will have a tough time against Herbert and the Bolts in L.A.

We like Joe Burrow a lot. The Cincinnati Kid can make every throw look easy, and he isn’t a statue in the pocket—he can’t be because his offensive line is an issue. Defensively though, don’t fade the Striped Cats. They crack the top ten in passing YPP, Total YPG, and rushing and passing YPP.

Green Bays offense isn’t what it used to be—Aaron Rogers was playing as if he were in the altered state, like the aggrieved beatnik he portrays in one of his State Farm spots.

Cincy wins this baby outright, Over the Number.

Bengals 30

Packers 27

This week, we feel good on just four bets, and we feel confident enough to make it a Four-Legged Parlay:

Date Placed: 10/10/21 01:30:59 Header: INTERNET: 4 Team Parlay risk 20.00 win 251.69

1. 459 Titans -4½ (-110) (NFL)

2. 474 Cowboys -7 (-110) (NFL)

3. 476 Cardinals -5½ (-110) (NFL)

4. 480 Ravens -7 (-105) (NFL)

We hedge by placing a unit on each game separately…

My Week Five pick are below in bold italics…

NFL WEEK FIVE ATS