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  • Gary Porpora

NFL 2023 - WEEK EIGHTEEN - PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD

Updated: Jan 7

NFL 2023 – TALLY WEEK SEVENTEEN =  9 - 7

WEEKLY OVERALL =  124 – 126 - 6   .491

0/U  =  5 - 3          O/U CUMULATIVE 66 - 57   .536

SPECIALS  2 - 2    SPECIALS CUMULATIVE  37 - 29 - 2   .561

GAME OF THE WEEK    10 – 6 - 1 LOCK OF THE WEEK   9 – 7 - 1 

UPSET SPECIAL     4 – 13            O/U OF THE WEEK   14 - 3

PREMIUM PICKS CUMULATIVE   =  103 - 86 - 2   .545


WEEK 18

Anyone who tries to sell you on their ATS prognostication prowess in the last week of any NFL season is lying to you.  Mostly because teams that must win, often don’t win; and teams with “nothing to lose” often play like they have everything to win.


Last week ended up with a 9-7 tally; we need the same performance just to break even overall for the 2023 campaign.


Don’t hold your breath.


We’ll try to stick with Week 18 matchups featuring teams with equal amounts of incentive--to win or lose...


GAME OF THE WEEK

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (+3)  50 GW  [U]


The Bills have been inconsistent; the Dolphins can be accused of the same offense, especially after their visit to The Charm City last week. The suddenly invincible Murder of Crows in Baltimore shoved a gigantic 56-point-double-bacon-cheeseburger-with-chile shoved down the Flippers’ gullets. 


All year we’ve featured the Cowboys and Dolphins as two teams who haven’t played or beaten anyone and our bets have proven correct much of the time.   


Contrast:  Miami can point to one “quality victory,”  defined as a win versus a playoff bound team, over the, you guessed it, Dallas Cowboys.  Excepting their one-point win against Tennessee, the Dolphins went down decisively against Buffalo, Philly, KC, and the Ravens.


Meanwhile Buffalo’s lost six games by a total of 23 points.   Don’t sleep on these Bills.  Yes, we know, when Josh Allen believes he, alone, must win a game,, he can be a turnover machine.  The “win the AFC East or go home” nature of this game for Buffalo--the Dolphins have clinched a playoff berth--means both groups should be focused and hungry for this matchup.


Allen and the Bills know they have the pieces to dominate Miami, as Sean McDermmot’s team already shellacked them 48-20 in Week Four.  But, the Bills and everyone else  respects Mike McDaniel and the job he’s done in Miami...The Fish should be supremely focused; we’re looking at a razor thin victory for the Buffs. The Fish, might still be flustered at losing so badly at the talons of the Mighty Magpies.


Vegas botched this line.  No way the Bills should be favored against Miami- who’s 7-1 at home- which is exactly why we’re taking the Dolphins, and looking for a close Bills win and a Miami Cover--Under the Total.


Bills 23

Dolphins 21



LOCK OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+5.5)  37.5  LW [U]


Last week we were sure Mayfield’s Mateys would handle the Saints and we couldn’t have been more wrong.


But even after that mistake filled performance, all the Bucs need to is beat the NFL’s worst team and they win the woeful NFC South.  We’ve been on the Mayfield Express all year--we’ll let it ride, laying the Points, and playing the Under.


Buccaneers 27

Panthers  10



UPSET SPECIAL

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) @ Tennessee Titans (+5.5)  40  US  [O]


The Jag Wires have lost five out of their last six games, with their Week 16 win over the pathetic Panthers that lone win.


We’re going with the Titan’s  because injuries have killed Jax all year and Trevor Lawrence  didn’t escape the fate.  All of their biggest offensive weapons are questionable.


Besides these division matchups are tricky in any week, but Week Eighteen is really tough...You gotta believe Vrabel’s crew will be pissed at their 2023 fate.


After I made my pick, I was perusing VSIN.com And found these nuggets, courtesy of

Michael Lombardi, former NFL GM and now a betting guru:


Vrabel is 24-14-2 ATS as an underdog of three or more points.

 

The Titans also fit into a situation (Carolina, Chicago, and Arizona as well this week) of an eliminated team against a team that "needs to win," and that has been a profitable situation for the eliminated team covering at around a 61% clip over the last 30+ years.


We’re also calling the Over


Titans 26

Jaguars 20


OVER/UNDER OF THE WEEK

New York Jets (+2) @ New England Patriots (-2) 33 O/U


Another quirky division matchup and Belichick’s final game in NE?  The rationale is simple:  division rivals who hate each other--and know each other--will make this a fun game to watch.


Although Belichick’s record as a Home Dog is not good, this being his swan song makes picking a bad Jets team even riskier...


Patriots 24

Jets 19


Per usual my complete slate of pics is below in bold italics:


NFL WEEK 18 ODDS: POINT SPREADS 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) 37.5  [U]

Houston Texans (+1) @ Indianapolis Colts (-1) 47  [U]

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5) 41.5

Cleveland Browns (+4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)  39  

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5)  40  US  [O]

Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ Detroit Lions (-4)  44

New York Jets (+2) @ New England Patriots (-2) 33 O/U [OVER]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+5.5)  37.5  LW [U]

Chicago Bears (+3) @ Green Bay Packers (-3) 44

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) 35.5 

Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) @ New York Giants (+5.5)  45

Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) @ Washington Commanders (+13.5)  48 

Denver Broncos (+2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)  38

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) 42.5

Seattle Seahawks (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (+3)  47.5

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (+3)  50 GW  [U]


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NFL 2023 SUPER BOWL

NFL 2023 – CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYOFF WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 CHAMPIONSHIP  TALLY =  0 - 2    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 9 =  .250 2023 OVERALL  = 137 - 141 - 6  =  .493 0/U  =  0 -2 

NFL 2023 CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 DIVISIONAL TALLY =  0 - 4    PLAYOFFS = 3 - 7  OVERALL  = 137 - 139 - 6 0/U  =  1 - 2  - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 77 - 61 - 1   .558 SPECIALS  0 - 4

NFL 2023 DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - PICKS ATS

NFL 2023 – SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND REG. SEASON WEEKLY OVERALL =  134 – 132 - 6   .504 PLAYOFF TALLY =  3 - 3  OVERALL  137 - 135 - 6  .504 0/U  =  5 - 1          O/U CUMULATIVE 76 - 59   .563 SPECIALS

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