NFL WEEK TWELVE – ATS
HAPPY THANKSGIVING
Buffalo Bills (-10) vs. Detroit Lions 54 [O]
This Spread is a bridge to far for The Gairzo—yes he does refer to himself in the third person, sometimes—because the Lions are playing with house money at this point in the season—and it could be a boon to bettors.
There’s no worry in Vegas or for the public to fear the Lions might be thinking of tanking for a lower draft pick—they have a first rounder from the Matt Stafford trade and the Rams are putrid right now—ergo, the Lions are sure of seeing a top 4-7 pick. They are playing solid football with nothing to lose, each player is vying to keep his job on what will become an elite squad. (That's the plan, anyway...)
The Bills should put 35 up on a very awful Lions defense—but Josh Allen has to show his elbow is no longer an issue. Detroit can also light the scoreboard---and Buffalo’s defense has faltered lately.
Injuries have dinged both teams here. D’Andre Smith, Detroit’s stand out RB, is bothered by a recurring shoulder ailment and the O-Line is banged up, as well.
The Bills, in my view, broke a short-week cardinal rule. They thumped the Brownies by eight points, last week, but the scheduled home field advantage was not in play due to a blizzard blasting twelve-feet of snow into Highmark Stadium. Their game against Cleveland was moved to Detroit. Why not keep the team there on a short week?
Sean McDermott’s reason for taking those almost back-to-back flights was to keep as much of the organization’s normal routine as possible.
Huh?
I know these guys are pros but to believe a quick flight home to upstate New York then a flight back to the Motor City only a couple days later doesn’t seriously cut into their routine is delusional.
The home Lion’s getting 10 points...Buffalo just 1-2 in their last three games…We think the Lions will make this closer than Vegas thinks.
Take the Over.
Bills 33
Lions 27
New York Giants (+8) vs. Dallas Cowboys 44
Time for a Gairzo confession... Every year prior to the season I bet one team from each conference to win the Super Bowl. I never play the longest shots like Jacksonville or this year’s Falcons, or Steelers.
My 2022 NFC Pick is the Cowboys. They kick-started their O-Line back up to a Top Ten unit, drafting the gigantic OL Tyler Smith out of Tulsa…Dak Prescott was coming off an injury riddled 2021 and his receivers were projected to take a big jump—if Dak could stay healthy.
Rule# 1 in the ‘Cappers Universe—never throw money away on bad bets…You always want to make a bet that gives you a decent shot at winning.
Dallas has drafted much better since Steven Jones’ voice found his Daddy’s ear. This defense has a shot to be consistently dominant on all three levels—they have shown flashes—the key word is "consistently."
The bettor’s goal is, of course, is finding the best value. We want to find teams that will payoff handsomely if they win the Lombardi, but they must have a reason to be considered—i.e. great Coach/QB/defense—yet, to be valuable as a futures bet, they are necessarily going to have flaws that keeps them down in the rankings. Besides Dak’s seemingly constant injuries, Dallas’ flaw is in their run defense.
Saquon Barkley averages 5.1 YPC in his career versus the Lone Stars, but only 60 yards on 12 carries—with only two TDs.
Even with Cooper Rush backing up at QB, Dallas stays in most games and can be absolutely dominant when their defense plays to its elite potential—ask the Vikings, who looked like a junior varsity team in a Week Eleven 40-3 shellacking at home.
Thing is, Dallas not only crushed the Norsemen’s egos, but also pissed on their fans delusion that their Vikings were a Super Bowl contenders.
The Cowboys are 31-21-1 in their Thanksgiving history.
This year, the G-Men invade AT&T stadium and go against the NFL’s best scoring defense; the Cowboys give up only 174.5 YPG through the air with the highest sack percentage in the game.
Daniel Jones doesn’t have the weapons to counter Dallas’ very adaptable defense, and
Saquon Barclay will force a vulnerable Cowboys rush defense to load the box to stop him…
The Cowboys secondary makes that risky play much less scary for Mike McCarthy and DC, Dan Quinn.
This Thanksgiving, Dallas will use this game as as a springboard to, finally, at long last, make a deep run in the post-season.
We’re calling the Over…
Cowboys 30
Giants 20
UPSET SPECIAL 10 – 1
New England Patriots (+2.5 ) vs. Minnesota Vikings 42 [U]
There are games where, after some research, the Spread just doesn’t make sense.
We’re not disrespecting Minnesota. Nobody can crucify them for having a major let down against the Cowboys the week after the football gods sent them a gift in Buffalo.
But, you can’t tell me a team with Dalvin Cook as its running back should run the ball less than all but two NFL teams and rank a pedestrian 24th in RYPG.
Maybe Kirk Cousins has become too enamored with Justin Jefferson—ultimately, I don’t think it matters.
His cheating aside, nobody can accuse Darth Belichick of faulty coaching. He excels at knowing how to negate an opponent’s strength, while getting the most out of his team—on both sides of the ball.
His Pats are a legitimate Top Six defense across the board:
2nd in scoring...
4th in Opp.YPG
6th in Opp. YPP
… And they hold opposing passers to a league low completion percentage of 55.73, and are the 2nd best sackers in the league…
There’s no way this Minnesota team should be favored against these Pats. This is a legitimate Upset Special…We’re going with the Under.
Patriots 23
Vikings 17